Latest Lines: Geico 500

Line Moves

Lines have been jumping around all week. Some of them moved one direction and then back again. It pays to check PointsBet Sportsbook multiple times during the week, but you must have a number in mind for each driver. When he reaches favorable odds, lock in a modest bet. If that driver’s odds become more attractive, you can always place another.

By looking at the chart below, it would appear Chase Elliott did not experience a line movement. He actually did on more than one occasion. Elliott opened at +1100 and at the time of this writing, that is precisely where he was once more. He swapped back and forth between 11/1 and 10/1. While that does not sound like much, while he was at +1000 he was tied for the second-best ranking with Joey Logano. The odds don’t only reveal what you will make on a bet, but also give you the relative attitude about the driver’s strength from bookmakers who spend a lot of time analyzing numbers.

Likewise Denny Hamlin (+725) moved around more than it would appear. At one point during the week, he was down to +650. That is suggestive that enough money exchanged hands early in the week to cause the sportsbooks to wish to limit their exposure.
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As the week progressed, however, bettors seem to have come to the realization that Talladega Superspeedway can be a crapshoot no matter where a driver is running in the field. Hamlin could lead a lot of laps, but occasionally ‘Big One’ accidents are triggered at the front of the pack as well as in the middle. After all, Brian Vickers got his first career win at Talladega after he spun the two leaders (both of whom were his teammates at the time) out of his way. More recently Joey Logano was leading the Daytona 500 when his teammate Brad Keselowski wrecked him.

Logano (+900) had 100 points shaved from his total, which indicate that enough money exchanged hands that oddsmakers decided to mitigate the exposure. This week we made Logano our favorite in the Best Bets column based on the number of laps he recorded among the leaders in the most recent aero-restricted superspeedway races. His results do not reflect his strength. It’s hard to call anyone a favorite on this type of track, but Logano still deserves to be ranked No. 1.

Keselowski (+1100) also had 100 points deducted from his total. He was among our top-10 picks this week, but we will admit to being a little reluctant to place him there. The reason for our hesitation is his defiant attitude that takes so much offense at blocking and how that often puts him – and the remainder of the field, for that matter – at risk. His incident at Daytona in February proves that he is not immune to getting swept into his own mayhem.

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Kyle Larson (+1600) and Kevin Harvick (+1800) both saw 200 point deductions.

That makes a certain amount of sense where Larson is concerned. He drove well in the 500 and eked out a top-10. He’s in Hendrick Motorsports equipment and that team has been among the best this season. His 16/1 odds are enough of a Return on Investment to make him a solid pick.

We are a little gob smacked by Harvick, however. His negative movement suggests that a lot of money was placed on him at +1600 odds. He didn’t deserve the attention any more than another driver in that range and by the statistics, he deserved it even less. Harvick finished outside the top 25 in three of his last four Talladega attempts. He didn’t sustain crash damage in those races; he just did not perform well. During his career, however, he has been involved in an accident in more than half his Talladega starts.

Aric Almirola (+2000) and Alex Bowman (+2000) went the opposite direction as oddsmakers were forced to sweeten the pot.

For Bowman, this would suggest a little overenthusiastic approach to his opening line on the heels of his Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway win. His current odds put him in a sweet spot, however, and he is worth a modest bet.

For Almirola, the line movement suggests most bettors do not believe his bad luck is in the rearview mirror. We liked him earlier this week for a top-10 bet when he was +1800 because of his eight-race streak of top-10s at Talladega entering last fall’s YellaWood 500. He is even more attractive now.

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Rank	Driver	Current Odds	Opening Odds	Change	Talladega fall 2020
1.	Denny Hamlin	725	700	25	900
2.	Joey Logano	900	1000	-100	1000
3.	Ryan Blaney	1000	1000	0	1000
4.	Brad Keselowski	1100	1200	-100	1100
4.	Chase Elliott	1100	1100	0	1000
6.	Kyle Larson	1600	1800	-200
7.	Kevin Harvick	1800	2000	-200	1200
7.	Kyle Busch	1800	1800	0	1400
9.	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	2000	2000	0	2200
9.	Aric Almirola	2000	1800	200	1600
9.	Alex Bowman	2000	1800	200	1600
9.	William Byron	2000	2000	0	2000
13.	Martin Truex Jr.	2200	2200	0	2000
14.	Kurt Busch	2500	2000	500	1600
14.	Christopher Bell	2500	2500	0	3500
16.	Bubba Wallace	3000	2800	200	3300
17.	Austin Dillon	3300	3000	300	3000
17.	Tyler Reddick	3300	3500	-200	4000
19.	Matt DiBenedetto	3500	3500	0	3500
20.	Ryan Newman	4000	3500	500	5000
21.	Ryan Preece	6000	6600	-600	9000
21.	Chris Buescher	6000	6000	0	4000
21.	Erik Jones	6000	6600	-600	4000
24.	Michael McDowell	6600	6600	0	6600
25.	Ross Chastain	8000	8000	0
25.	Daniel Suarez	8000	8000	0	20000
25.	Cole Custer	8000	8000	0	4000
28.	Chase Briscoe	9000	9000	0
29.	Corey LaJoie	12500	12500	0	12500
29.	Justin Haley	12500	10000	2500	4000
31.	Harrison Burton	15000	15000	0
32.	Kaz Grala	25000	25000	0
32.	Anthony Alfredo	25000	20000	5000
34.	JJ Yeley	30000	25000	5000	25000
35.	Cody Ware	40000	40000	0
35.	Quin Houff	40000	40000	0	25000
37.	BJ McLeod	50000	50000	0
37.	Joey Gase	50000	50000	0	30000
37.	Timmy Hill	50000	50000	0	30000
37.	Josh Bilicki	50000	40000	10000