Lines: Go Bowling at the Glen: Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin didn’t move

Line Moves

Without practice or qualification on a track that hasn’t hosted a Cup race in two year, the betting lines did not move much this week. The moves that did occur were significant, however, because they were most likely all caused by the volume of bets that happened in the early part of the week.

Chase Elliott (+195) opened at +180 and shows a minimal move, but that is only part of the story. He jumped around all week with odds as low as +165 and as high as +210. Chances are good that he will move again before Sunday’s race and each move was triggered by some aggressive action or a period of inactivity as smart money waited for the line they wanted. Still, he is in sight of 2/1, which is where he landed at Sonoma Raceway earlier this year.

Martin Truex Jr. (+675) had the biggest move among the top-ranked drivers. Traders started him at +850, which looked like such a great line on paper that money undoubtedly poured in at the first of the week. His current odds of just under 7/1 still provide a great return, but in order to peel off some cash from your roll, you are going to have to first make some assumptions about how quickly he gets up to speed at Watkins Glen. Based on his experience at Sonoma Raceway – the other traditional cornerstone for NASCAR’s road courses – he should contend for the victory. Better still, this week’s odds are much more lucrative than his +380 from the California road course.
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Kyle Larson (+485) showed an almost non-existent, five-point move, while Kyle Busch (+850) and Denny Hamlin (+1300) were unchanged among the top five.

Joey Logano’s (+1400) odds dropped 200 points. At the start of the week we suggested that made him one of the best bets in the field, and it would seem that bettors agreed and dropped him from +1600. It would certainly be nice to have the extra two dollars, but our opinion of his value has not changed with the move.

It would appear that Christopher Bell (+2000) failed to excite bettors at +1600, so the PointsBet Sportsbook traders sweetened the offer by 400 points. That is one of the biggest moves among the top 10 drivers – and it is probably a fair assessment of his real chance of winning at he Glen. Ranking him seventh in odds is a lot more respect than a driver with two sub-20th-place results on road courses this year deserves.

William Byron (+2500) was the other driver among the top 10 to experience a line move – and like Bell, the oddsmakers had to sweeten the pot to get some juice flowing. He finished in the 30s in three of the four road course races this year, but a sweep of the top 10 in 2020 and an 11th at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) makes him interesting. The five dollars added to his payout could make a difference if you are betting this deeply in the field.

Just outside the top 10, Brad Keselowski (+3300) moved significantly with 700 points deducted from his opening line. We’re not entirely sure why he garnered so much interest other than he was one of the strongest overall racers in the 40/1 range. Still, over the past two seasons he has only one top-10 finish, which was a fifth on the Daytona International Speedway Road Course early in the year.

Three of our top dark horses, Ross Chastain (+5000), Tyler Reddick (+6000), and Chase Briscoe (+6600) each had points added to their lines. We thought they deserved a few shekels with their opening numbers and they are even more attractive now.

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Rank	Driver	Current Odds	Opening Odds	Change	2021 Sonoma Odds
1.	Chase Elliott	195	180	15	205
2.	Kyle Larson	480	475	5	800
3.	Martin Truex, Jr.	675	850	-175	380
4.	Kyle Busch	850	850	0	775
5.	Denny Hamlin	1300	1300	0	1100
6.	Joey Logano	1400	1600	-200	1800
7.	Christopher Bell	2000	1600	400	3000
8.	Kurt Busch	2500	2500	0	6000
8.	William Byron	2500	2000	500	1400
10.	Ryan Blaney	3000	3000	0	2200
10.	Alex Bowman	3000	3000	0	2500
12.	Kevin Harvick	3300	3300	0	1800
12.	Brad Keselowski	3300	4000	-700	3300
14.	Ross Chastain	5000	4000	1000	9000
15.	Tyler Reddick	6000	4000	2000	5000
16.	Chase Briscoe	6600	4000	2600	9000
17.	Matt DiBenedetto	8000	9000	-1000	10000
18.	Daniel Suarez	9000	9000	0	12500
19.	Michael McDowell	12500	12500	0	8000
19.	Chris Buescher	12500	9000	3500	9000
21.	Aric Almirola	15000	15000	0	25000
21.	Erik Jones	15000	20000	-5000	20000
21.	Cole Custer	15000	15000	0	12500
24.	Austin Dillon	20000	15000	5000	20000
25.	Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	35000	25000	10000	25000
25.	Ryan Preece	35000	35000	0	40000
25.	Bubba Wallace	35000	35000	0	30000
28.	Ryan Newman	40000	25000	15000	25000
29.	James Davison	50000	50000	0	50000
29.	Corey LaJoie	50000	50000	0	50000
29.	Garrett Smithley	50000	50000	0	50000
29.	Josh Bilicki	50000	50000	0	50000
29.	Justin Haley	50000	50000	0
29.	Quin Houff	50000	50000	0	50000
29.	Anthony Alfredo	50000	50000	0	50000
29.	Kyle Tilley	50000	50000	0

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