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Line Moves
The field will chase a pair of Chases into Turn 1 this week.
A mix of accepted favorites and fresh faces make up the top 10 in what has become standard fare with the NextGen car. No one is surprised by the inside of the front two rows with Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson lining up nose-to-tail, but to their outside, no one quite predicted that Chase Briscoe and Tyler Reddick would be to there.
For Elliott (+400), the pole did not move the needle very much. He was already the favorite at +500 and experienced a minor adjustment of 100 points after setting a lap of 108.407 in qualification to lead the field to green. While this is not a shock, relief might be a better way to describe how the team potentially feels because Elliott lost some of his cache in recent races as Young Gun and new winners dominated the leaderboard at COTA and Sonoma.
Larson (+550) also did what was expected and qualified on the inside of the third row. He experienced an even smaller line move with 75 points being deducted from his total. And while his fast single lap probably had the most to do with the movement, his performance in the Xfinity race on Saturday didn’t hurt. Larson is still seeking his first road course top-10 – something we didn’t think we would say at this stage of the season – and he should be able to get it unless he or the team makes a mistake.
Chase Briscoe (+850) has been the biggest surprise of the weekend so far. He had a couple of top-10s on road courses last year, but did not make very much noise in the first two races of this season. His 30th at COTA and 13th at Sonoma allowed him to fly under the radar, so anyone who snapped him up at the beginning of the week could potentially have a huge payday. At 17/2 currently, there is not enough juice for the squeeze.
Ross Chastain (+900) failed to make it into the top 10 in qualification, but there is no reason to panic. He posted the third-fastest speed in practice. Both laps are good enough to keep him in contact with the leaders on this massive 4-mile track and he has the skill to move up from his 12th-place starting position to contend during the first stage. Strategy will dictate the rest.
We suggested that Austin Cindric (+900) would be a driver to watch at the beginning of the week and his outright odds to win the race fell 700 points. There can be only one winner and in the Xfinity series that happened with regularity while he was competing full time there - but this is the Cup series and the level of competition is much higher. As with Briscoe, he is too much of an unknown entity to warrant a major bet at 9/1, but if you have a little mad money left over, he is of more than passing interest.
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Tyler Reddick (+1400) was solid in practice and qualification. Staring fourth, he’s going to have to fend off some great road racers, and with so many new faces at the front, it’s going to be interesting to see who settles in at the front of the pack in a few laps. Reddick was one of out Best Bet’s picks this week and at 25/1, he was one of the best values.
AJ Allmendinger (+1600) failed to live up to his reputation in either practice of qualification. He was solidly mid-pack throughout Saturday, and considering the trouble he’s had closing out on road courses this season, it’s hard to recommend risking a bet on him for the overall win even with an extra 200 points added to his total.
This will be an important race for Daniel Suarez (+1600) as he tries to prove Sonoma wasn’t a fluke. His 10th-place qualification effort puts him in a good position to contend early and if he can stay with the leaders throughout the first stage, we will have one more piece of the puzzle. No matter what happens in this individual race, that will not detract from the gains made at Trackhouse Racing. At 16/1, he is in a range where a modest wager is not out of the question and if your decision comes down to him or the ‘Dinger at the same line, we have more confidence in Suarez.
Denny Hamlin (+1800) has run hot and cold this year; road courses are no exemption. He has the skill to contend for a top-five, but the NextGen car and this new generation of racer is causing him to seesaw through the field. He practiced in the back half of the field and picked up the pace in qualification to start 14th. He could improve a little more in race conditions, but we now expect that he is going to hover around the 10th-place mark.
Rank | Driver | Current | Opening | Change | Road America |
1. | 400 | 500 | -100 | 300 | |
2. | 550 | 625 | -75 | 290 | |
3. | 850 | 2500 | -1650 | 8000 | |
4. | 900 | 850 | 50 | 6600 | |
4. | 900 | 1600 | -700 | 2200 | |
6. | 1400 | 2500 | -1100 | 5000 | |
7. | 1600 | 1400 | 200 | 2200 | |
7. | 1600 | 3000 | -1400 | 20000 | |
9. | 1800 | 1400 | 400 | 1400 | |
10. | 2000 | 1100 | 900 | 1200 | |
10. | 2000 | 1200 | 800 | 850 | |
10. | 2000 | 1400 | 600 | 2200 | |
10. | 2000 | 1600 | 400 | 2800 | |
10. | 2000 | 2800 | -800 | 2500 | |
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|
|
15. | 2200 | 2200 | 0 | 10000 | |
15. | 2200 | 3500 | -1300 | 8000 | |
17. | 2500 | 2000 | 500 | 1400 | |
18. | 3300 | 4000 | -700 | 2200 | |
19. | 5000 | 3000 | 2000 | 4000 | |
19. | 5000 | 5000 | 0 | 2200 | |
19. | 5000 | 5000 | 0 | 10000 | |
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22. | 6000 | 7000 | -1000 | 5000 | |
23. | 20000 | 50000 | -30000 |
| |
24. | 25000 | 12500 | 12500 | 20000 | |
24. | 25000 |
| 25000 | 20000 | |
26. | 35000 | 25000 | 10000 | 50000 | |
27. | 40000 | 50000 | -10000 | 35000 | |
28. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 30000 | |
28. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 35000 | |
28. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| |
28. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| |
28. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
28. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
28. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
28. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| |
28. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| |
28. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 |
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