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Line Moves
Since NASCAR returned practice and qualification to the rotation, these sessions continue to trigger major line changes. Once again, nearly every driver experienced a movement from the start of the week. Some, like Daniel Suarez and Chris Buescher experienced major changes, so bettors looking for hidden gems should watch the early week lines closely.
On most tracks, starting position is not the most important factor, however, so knowing how it effects these line moves can help you identify some value opportunities if the traders overreact to the preliminary sessions. This takes one part instinct and one part analysis, but comparing original and closing lines could be one of the most important weapons in your arsenal.
For the fifth consecutive year, Kyle Larson (+400) leads the field to green at Sonoma. Last year was set by metric qualification instead of time trials and paradoxically, it was the only time it made any difference for the California native. With his newly acquired Hendrick Motorsports power in 2021, he stayed with the leaders all afternoon and won. He was +800 for this race last year, but after a 300-point drop in 2022, he’s worth only half as much.
Chase Elliott (+380) opened at +575 and took a brief move to +600 before the weekend activities began. He and Larson dominated the prelims finishing 1-2 in both practice and qualification. The race will be on to the first turn and whoever establishes track position early is going to be hard to beat in the first stage. Elliott’s superior road racing skills gives him the advantage, but he didn’t have to face competition like Larson in the past.
Ross Chastain (+1000) had 100 points shaved from his total after posting a top-10 speed in practice and qualifying on the inside of Row 2. Chastain was already highly regarded based on his Circuit of the Americas (COTA) victory, which is a huge part of the reason that this year’s betting line is massively below the 90/1 he showed for last year’s Save Mart 350k. Value is in the eyes of the receiver, but we’re not ready to say he’s the third-best road racer in the field.
Chastain swapped positions with Kyle Busch (+1100), who had 100 points added to his total. He posted the fourth best time in practice, but starting 12th appears to have rattled Smart Money and necessitated the move. This is the worst Busch has qualified since 2014 when he rolled off the grid 20th and finished 25th, but he started 11th the next year and won. He’s riding a current streak of four-top-fives, so we suspect he’ll be fine in race trim.
Daniel Suarez (+1400) was the biggest mover among the top 10, but the most significant indicator is how his line differs from last year. In the 2021 edition of this race, he showed a line of 125/1. He finished 12th in that race, but showed considerably more strength in Texas this spring before suffering a late-race setback that dropped him to 24th. Still, with no Sonoma Raceway top-10s, he’s a risky proposition.
Denny Hamlin (+1500) has been one of our favorites this week, but frankly his 25th-fastest speed in qualification has us a little nervous. He qualified 10th and should be highly regarded as a top-10 finisher, but his odds of winning are not as great as they could be with only a moderately good pit stall.
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Four drivers are stacked up at 16/1, and when this happens, we presume that the algorithm used by the traders showed minimal differences between them and there was not a compelling enough intangible reason to elevate one above the other. As a result, we often compare this year’s line to last year’s.
Kurt Busch (+1600) had 400 points shaved from his line after qualifying 11th. This is such a major change from last year’s +6000 that it seems the traders were waiting for a trigger to drop him more. Busch tends to be undervalued on road courses, but through many seasons of competition, he always seems to become part of the story on road courses. At 16/1, he’s worth a little mad money still.
We lost faith in Martin Truex, Jr. (+1600) last year and he made us pay for the lapse with a third-place finish. In that race, there was not a lot of incentive to value him greater because he qualified 19th for the 2021 race. The news is even worse for 2022, however; Truex is going to roll off the grid from Row 14 and his 28th-place start is going to cost him a lot of track position. Frankly, we’re not sure what to do with him at the moment, and uncertainty makes us cautious, but there are few in the field with more experience and skill at Sonoma and Watkins Glen International.
AJ Allmendinger (+1600) was a late addition to the PointsBet Sportsbook lines, and we believe he deserves a little more respect than being barely inside the top 10 in rankings. That makes him an interesting value this week. You should only risk a bet at this level on one of the 16/1 drivers and ‘Dinger starts 16th, well ahead of Truex.
Tyler Reddick (+1600) rounds out the top 10 after having 200 points shaved from his total. The biggest move is from his 2021 line when he was 50/1 and a big part of the reason for this improved regard is that he earned four top-10s in six road races since last year’s Sonoma event. He was second on the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course and fifth this year at COTA.
Rank | Driver | Current | Opening | Change | 2021 Odds |
1. | 380 | 575 | -195 | 205 | |
2. | 400 | 700 | -300 | 800 | |
3. | 1000 | 1100 | -100 | 9000 | |
3. | 1100 | 1000 | 100 | 775 | |
5. | 1400 | 2500 | -1100 | 12500 | |
6. | 1500 | 1400 | 100 | 1100 | |
7. | 1600 | 2000 | -400 | 6000 | |
7. | 1600 | 900 | 700 | 380 | |
7. | 1600 | 1600 | 0 |
| |
7. | 1600 | 1800 | -200 | 5000 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. | 2000 | 1800 | 200 | 1800 | |
11. | 2000 | 1500 | 500 | 2200 | |
11. | 2000 | 1600 | 400 | 9000 | |
14. | 2200 | 1500 | 700 |
| |
15. | 2800 | 2200 | 600 | 1400 | |
16. | 3000 | 1500 | 1500 | 3000 | |
17. | 3500 | 20000 | -16500 | 9000 | |
18. | 4000 | 2500 | 1500 | 2500 | |
19. | 5000 | 4000 | 1000 | 1800 | |
20. | 6600 | 10000 | -3400 | 8000 | |
20. | 6600 | 20000 | -13400 | 12500 | |
22. | 7000 | 4000 | 3000 | 20000 | |
23. | 12500 | 20000 | -7500 | 20000 | |
24. | 15000 | 15000 | 0 | 3300 | |
25. | 20000 | 10000 | 10000 | 25000 | |
26. | 25000 | 20000 | 5000 |
| |
26. | 25000 | 25000 | 0 |
| |
28. | 30000 | 30000 | 0 |
| |
28. | 30000 | 25000 | 5000 | 30000 | |
30. | 40000 | 30000 | 10000 | 25000 | |
30. | 40000 | 40000 | 0 |
| |
32. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
32. | 50000 | 40000 | 10000 |
| |
32. | 50000 | 35000 | 15000 | 50000 | |
32. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
32. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 |
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2022 EchoPark Grand Prix [COTA]
2021 Save Mart 350k [Sonoma]
Go Bowling at the Glen [Watkins Glen]
