In the spirit of Ted Lasso season two premiering today, it feels fitting to share a show quote inspiring today’s piece.
Q: Right now, how worried are you with the threat of relegation?
A: Well, Lloyd, right now I’m concerned with the definition of relegation.
If all goes to plan, the teams that follow in this article will most definitely be concerned with the definition of relegation.
[[ad:athena]]
I hate to break it to newcomers Norwich, Watford and Brentford, but there’s a good chance a majority of them will be heading straight back to the Championship.
Norwich, despite winning the Championship last season, are the only side favored (-112) to be relegated at PointsBet Sportsbook.
Watford (+100) and Brentford (+110) are second and third favorites to be relegated with Crystal Palace (+175), Burnley (+230) and Newcastle (+270) the most likely candidates amongst last season’s Premier League sides.
So without further delay, here are the two sides I’m targeting for relegation this season. All odds reflective of time of writing.
Relegation Bet #1 - Brentford (+110)
It’s always difficult to bet on a team going immediately back down, but this play is strictly based on one of my most profitable relegation trends.
In the last seven EPL seasons, five teams that achieved promotion through the EFL playoff have been relegated in their first EPL season.
Villa could have made it six of seven, but managed to stave off relegation on the final day of the 2019-20 campaign.
When it comes to Brentford, I personally believe the price is slightly off and they should be favorites to suffer relegation.
Watford and Norwich, while flawed, have previous experience in the Premier League.
Norwich can rely on Todd Cantwell and Teemu Pukki while Watford notched four consecutive seasons in the top flight before their relegation two seasons ago.
Brentford, meanwhile, have never played in the modern Premier League since it was rebranded in 1992. That fact, I believe, will prove key in the event they do get relegated.
As far as the schedule is concerned, it’s a mixed bag for Brentford. The beginning of the season features some chances to grab points, but the end of the season could present some genuine challenges.
Take the month of April, for example. It starts with a visit to Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, with additional road fixtures against Watford and Manchester United. At home, they host West Ham and Tottenham.
By then, I expect Brentford to be worn out from the change of pace and will be lucky to get two points from those fixtures. Even if they outpace expectations in the early stages, I believe once teams play them once, they’ll be better prepared for the reverse fixture.
Relegation Bet #2 - Crystal Palace (+175)
The simplest recipe to avoid relegation is to steal points in games you’re expected to lose.
Palace, who to their credit haven’t featured in the second tier since the 2012-13 season, have been acutely atrocious at doing just that.
In their last three seasons, only nine of their 37 cumulative wins have come against teams who finished the season in the top half.
Plus, as the season reaches its conclusion, Palace haven’t exactly been a bet-on team. In all games played beyond March 1 across the last three seasons, Palace have lost 53 percent of games outright.
Finally, across those same three seasons, Crystal Palace’s goal differential has gotten worse in each subsequent campaign - dropping to a -25 gD last season.
Roy Hodgson retired at the end of last season, and I have often theorized he and Wilfried Zaha were the superglue propping this side up. Zaha’s desire for Champions League football has been well documented, so there’s a scenario where both are gone in the not-too-distant future.
Without Zaha, who will provide the creative playmaking needed to keep this team in the top flight? While Eberechi Eze and Christian Benteke have shown flare-ups of talent, the best XI for Palace isn’t what you would call intimidating.
Another key to staving off relegation? Pulling out your clutch gene at home and winning as many points as possible.
Palace falls short in that arena too, as you’d have to travel back to the 2013-14 campaign to find the last time they had the 10th best home record or better.
Additionally, dating back to that 2013-14 season, Palace have held one of the three worst home records on three occasions.
Because of all those metrics, I fully expect Palace will be heading down to the Championship come May.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
