After a (brief) hiatus, the EPL prop column has returned!
Unfortunately for us, the last column failed to produce a winner, but a week of Champions League action gave us the opportunity to reset, re-evaluate and return with a fresh set of eyes.
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For this week, I’m returning to what has (mostly) given us success in the column - the both teams to score market.
As for which two matches are standing out in that market, allow me to present my two best prop bets for Matchday Six. All odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Leicester City/Burnley Both Teams to Score (-115)
I’m honestly surprised this number isn’t a touch higher given the positive history for this prop.
The “yes” side of BTTS has cashed in five straight meetings and six of the last seven, with at least one side surpassing 1.0 xGF in all of the last eight.
Plus, anytime you can find the pressure to cash on the home side, I like the prop even more.
Leicester have allowed at least one expected goal in every EPL match this season and at least 2.0 xGA in two of five contests.
On the contrary, Burnley have managed at least one expected goal in three straight and four of their opening five.
Add in that Chris Wood LOVES playing against Leicester - he’s scored in both of the previous two visits to Leicester - and I think Burnley are a good bet to find Kasper Schmeichel’s goal.
That said, the Burnley defense hasn’t been anything spectacular. Through their first five fixtures, they’ve allowed both the fourth-most shot-creating and goal-creating actions, per fbref.com.
Despite Leicester ranking in the bottom-half of those two categories, the fact is they’ve failed to score in only five of their last 21 home matches.
Against the Clarets, they’ve never been held below 1.0 xGF at the King Power Stadium and have managed at least one goal in five of their last six home meetings.
With both sides fresh off midweek EFL Cup matches in which Brendan Rodgers and Sean Dyche elected to utilize key defensive pieces, I foresee at least a few chances at both ends of the pitch.
Best Bet #2 - Arsenal/Tottenham Both Teams to Score (-130)
Across the last 22 meetings at Arsenal, the Gunners have never once failed to score against their archrivals.
Yes, you read that correctly and it’s worth repeating. The last time Arsenal failed to score at home against Tottenham was November 1998.
Considering a) the positive BTTS history of this fixture and b) these sides’ horrendous defensive records, I’m happy to lay this number.
The “yes” side of the BTTS market has cashed in four of the last five and 11 of the last 16, including six of the last seven at the Emirates.
After failing to score in their first three EPL matches, Arsenal seem to have found their groove offensively, scoring twice on nearly four xGF in their last two fixtures. Plus, they still remain a top-six side in shot-creating actions and are fifth in penalty-area touches, per fbref.com.
That said, their defense has been sub-par at preventing high-risk chances. The Gunners are sixth-worse in terms of shot-creating and goal-creating chances allowed, again per fbref.com.
Tottenham, despite all their offensive woes, should enter this match recognizing Arsenal tend to have a problem keeping them off the scoresheet. In the last seven meetings, Spurs have never been held goalless.
For as bad as some of their offensive metrics are - dead last in xGF, 2nd-to-last in shot-creating actions - there are positive signs. For example, Spurs sit atop the standings in terms of shots-on-target percentage.
Ultimately, though, I’m placing the most emphasis on both teams’ defensive records, which are frankly terrible. Expect enough opportunities on both ends for each side to break through once.
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