This week’s race: Kobalt 400
Traditional Name: Las Vegas 400
Other Notable Names: Shelby 427, UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400, CarsDirect.com 400
NASCAR will make their 18th trip to Las Vegas Motor Speedway and as one of 10 tracks that host only one race per year, it takes a little while for drivers to get enough experience to trust their records.
With last year’s changing of the guard and such a large number of rookies, only 31 drivers entered this week started at least twice in the past three year, but some significant racers are outside of the top 10. Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick have each struggled on this progressively-banked 1.5-mile oval at times, which has made room at the top for Paul Menard, Jamie McMurray, and Martin Truex Jr.
Vegas is one of the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks along with Atlanta Motor Speedway, Charlotte Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, Chicagoland Speedway, and Kentucky Speedway. It is notable that last week’s venue—along with Kentucky and Chicagoland—host only one race per year. That puts a premium on drivers and teams that can adjust quickly and employ superior strategy. It should come as no surprise that Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth have the most wins on this track at four and three respectively.
Because the track can be tricky to navigate, it is equally unsurprising that only one other active driver has more than one win there. Carl Edwards won twice as did the inactive Jeff Burton.
Traditionally, Vegas has stood alone among the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks at the beginning of the season while drivers were still gaining momentum. Now that it is the second-half of back-to-back races on this course type, it could become a little more predictable in the coming years. For the moment, balance a driver’s record on this track with his performance in the Folds of Honor Quik Trip 500 and overall skill on the track type, but make some allowances for dark horses as well.
10 best drivers at Las Vegas
Over the past three races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.1. Jimmie Johnson
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 4.67
Career avg. finish: 9.2 in 13 attempts
Johnson’s worst finishes in the past three races at Vegas ended in a pair of sixths last year and in 2013. He finished second in 2012, which contributes to his stellar three-year average. If this paragraph had been written in 2008 his average would have been 1.0 since he was coming off three consecutive wins. He finished 29th that next season and spoiled his career record.
2. Carl Edwards
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 5.00
Career avg. finish: 9.2 in 10 attempts
Edwards’ career average is identical to Johnson’s with three fewer starts. He enters the weekend with three consecutive fifth-place finishes, which makes him one of the top fantasy values this week no matter what game a players is handicapping. His second and most recent victory came in 2011, so it would appear the battle this week could be between the top-two drivers.
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 6.33
Career avg. finish: 14.7 in 15 attempts
Earnhardt has been the model of consistency at Vegas in recent years. He entered the 2014 Kobalt 400 with a three-race, top-10 streak and five such finishes in his previous six attempts. He was en route to Victory Lane when he ran out of gas on the final lap last year, but still managed to finish second.
4. Paul Menard
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 6.67
Career avg. finish: 17.3 in 8 attempts
Menard has also been remarkably consistent on this track. He comes to Nevada with a current three-race, top-10 streak and a worst result of 17th in his last five tries. He will also be useful in games that offer place differential points because he has finished better than he started in all but one of his eight attempts.
5. Kasey Kahne
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 9.67
Career avg. finish: 13.5 in 11 attempts
Kahne has been a little more erratic in the past three years than Earnhardt or Menard. He finished 19th in the 2012 Kobalt Tools 400, but he ran better than that result implies. Kahne qualified on the pole that season and sustained some crash damage, but he made up for the mistake with a second-place finish in 2013.
6. Joey Logano
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 10.67
Career avg. finish: 12.3 in 6 attempts
Even while he was struggling elsewhere with Joe Gibbs Racing, Logano was fairly strong at Vegas. He finished 13th in his first attempt there and was sixth as a sophomore. The only time he failed to finish on the lead lap came in his third start, but he has been 16th or better in his last three attempts.
7. Matt Kenseth
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 11.00
Career avg. finish: 11.3 in 15 attempts
Kenseth failed to win a race last year, but that probably will not happen again in 2015. In fact, he has a good shot at matching Johnson’s league-leading four wins this week because he added his third just two years ago. In 2014, he finished only 10th, but overcame a qualification effort of 29th to do so, which made him a good value in some games.
8. Jamie McMurray (tied with Keselowski)
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 12.00
Career avg. finish: 17.9 in 12 attempts
McMurray does not have a single great run in the past three years, but he makes the top 10 on reliability. He finished eighth in 2012, 13th in 2013, and 15th last year. If that downward trend continues he will be just outside the mark that makes him a good value and he should only be evaluated this week at Vegas.
8. Brad Keselowski (tied with McMurray)
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 12.00
Career avg. finish: 21.0 in 6 attempts
If not for a broken fuel pump in 2012, Keselowski would be much higher on this list. His pass on Earnhardt on the final lap of last year’s Kobalt 400 will get replayed often this week, and his numbers are also buoyed by a third in 2013. In both of those races he started on the front row and he has been a fixture at the front of the pack in recent years.
10. Martin Truex Jr.
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 13.00
Career avg. finish: 16.0 in 9 attempts
Truex has been uneven in recent seasons, but when he is priced right he continues to be a good value. His last five attempts ended in a sweep of the top 20; two of those results were in the top 10, but he lacks a top-five that would make him a great value. With momentum on his side, he could get it this week.
Others of Note
13. Jeff GordonLast three races average finish at Las Vegas: 15.33
Career avg. finish: 15.0 in 17 attempts
Gordon has experienced highs and lows at Vegas. His only victory there came in his fourth start, but it was preceded by a 28th in 2000. He has three DNFs due to accidents, the most recent of which came in 2011. It was a 25th two years ago that kills his current three-year average, however, but he rebounded with a top-10 in 2014.
14. Denny Hamlin
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 15.67
Career avg. finish: 13.0 in 9 attempts
Hamlin has four top-10s at Vegas to his credit, but they dried up three years ago. He finished 20th in 2012 and has steadily worked his way back toward the front of the pack. Last year he finished 12th and if he can continue to improve this season, he will climb into the top 10.
15. Ryan Newman
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 16.33
Career avg. finish: 17.3 in 14 attempts
Newman fails to crack the top 10 this week because of a blown engine in the 2013 Kobalt Tools 400. Otherwise, three of his last four attempts on this track ended in results of seventh or better. That could make him a great value to fantasy owners if the competition fixates on his one negative run.
19. Kevin Harvick
Last three races average finish at Las Vegas: 20.33
Career avg. finish: 14.7 in 14 attempts
At the beginning of 2015, Harvick had several strong runs end in disaster. The Kobalt 400 was one of these when he broke a hub and lost 30 laps making repairs. He was running at the end of the race, but finished only 41st and as part of a three-race, three-year average that is critical. He will perform much better this week.
Rank | Driver | 3-Year Avg. Finish | Attempts |
1. | 4.67 | 3 | |
2. | 5.00 | 3 | |
3. | 6.33 | 3 | |
4. | 6.67 | 3 | |
5. | 9.67 | 3 | |
6. | 10.67 | 3 | |
7. | 11.00 | 3 | |
8. | 12.00 | 3 | |
8. | 12.00 | 3 | |
10. | 13.00 | 3 | |
| |||
11. | 14.00 | 3 | |
12. | 15.00 | 3 | |
13. | 15.33 | 3 | |
14. | 15.67 | 3 | |
15. | 16.33 | 3 | |
16. | 17.33 | 3 | |
17. | 18.50 | 2 | |
18. | 18.67 | 3 | |
19. | 20.33 | 3 | |
20. | 21.67 | 3 | |
21. | 22.50 | 2 | |
22. | 27.00 | 2 | |
23. | 27.50 | 2 | |
24. | 28.00 | 3 | |
24. | 28.00 | 3 | |
26. | 30.33 | 3 | |
27. | 39.00 | 3 | |
27. | 39.00 | 3 | |
29. | 41.00 | 3 | |
30. | 41.33 | 3 | |
31. | JJ Yeley | 42.33 | 3 |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 14, 2009 Shelby 427Fewest caution flags: 2 (2 times), 2000 CarsDirect.com 400, 1998 Las Vegas 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 6.9
Final Caution, last five races:
March 2014: 222 of 267: debris
March 2013: 237 of 267: fluid
March 2012: 261 of 267: debris
March 2011: 196 of 267: 1-car accident in turn 4 (Jeff Gordon)
February 2010: 230 of 267: 1-car spin in turn 2 (Kevin Conway)
Most caution laps: 66, 2009 Shelby 427
Fewest caution laps: 9, 1998 Las Vegas 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 32.7
Leading the way
Most leaders: 16, 2007 UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400Fewest leaders: 7, 2000 CarsDirect.com 400
Average number of leaders: 11.0
Most lead changes: 28, 2007 UAW - Daimler Chrysler 400
Fewest lead changes: 13, 2000 CarsDirect.com 400
Average number of lead changes: 20.5
Victory Lane
Last five winners at Las Vegas (starting position):March 2014: Brad Keselowski (2)
March 2013: Matt Kenseth (18)
March 2012: Tony Stewart (7)
March 2011: Carl Edwards (3)
February 2010: Jimmie Johnson (20)
Worst starting position for race winner: 25th, Matt Kenseth UAW - DaimlerChrysler 400
The third-worst a driver ever started at Vegas came in 2007. Jimmie Johnson won from 23rd and in this race no one who finished in the top 10 started among the top 10; third-place qualifier Elliott Sadler was the highest finisher in 14th.
A race at Las Vegas has been won by the pole sitter 1 time and from the front row 3 times in 17 races.
Recent races won from the pole:
Kyle Busch, 2009 Shelby 427
Outside pole:
2014, Brad Keselowski Kobalt 400
2008, Carl Edwards UAW-Dodge 400
Active winners at Las Vegas:
Jimmie Johnson: 4
Matt Kenseth: 3
Carl Edwards: 2
Jeff Gordon: 1
Brad Keselowski: 1
Tony Stewart: 1
First time winners at Las Vegas:
None, Jeff Burton scored his sixth win in the 1999 Las Vegas 400
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Las Vegas race they started:Kevin Harvick (14)
Jimmie Johnson (13)
Jamie McMurray (12)
Carl Edwards (10)
Clint Bowyer (9)
Denny Hamlin (9)
Martin Truex Jr. (9)
Brad Keselowski (6)
Joey Logano (6)
AJ Allmendinger (5)
Reed Sorenson (5)
Trevor Bayne (4)
Sam Hornish Jr. (3)
Austin Dillon (2)
Brendan Gaughan (2)
Danica Patrick (2)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2)
Mike Wallace (2)
Justin Allgaier (1)
Michael Annett (1)
Alex Bowman (1)
Kyle Larson (1)
Cole Whitt (1)
Greg Biffle blew an engine in his first start, but has been running at the end of the last 10 attempts.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:Kasey Kahne: second (2004)
Jimmie Johnson: sixth (2002)
Kevin Harvick: eighth (2001)
Denny Hamlin: 10th (2006)
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 10th (2000)
