Leading up to the start of the season, Rotoworld will be pumping out previews for every Group of 5 and Power 5 conference (plus Independents), complete with fantasy projections courtesy of RW analytics guru Hayden Winks, draft prospects to watch and a full examination of each conference’s team’s best and worst case scenarios. Up in this installation: The ACC.
Fantasy Projections
| Quarterback | PaYD | PaTD | RuYD | FPPG |
| Bryce Perkins (Virginia, SR) | 2603 | 24 | 807 | 26 |
| Trevor Lawrence (Clemson, SO) | 3671 | 34 | 219 | 25 |
| Jamie Newman (Wake Forest, JR) | 2827 | 23 | 472 | 25 |
| Ryan Willis (Virginia Tech, SR) | 3068 | 27 | 214 | 21 |
| Quentin Harris (Duke, SR) | 2801 | 20 | 259 | 21 |
| Tommy DeVito (Syracuse, SO) | 2741 | 23 | 61 | 19 |
| *Matt McKay (NC State, SO) | 2401 | 17 | 101 | 19 |
| James Blackman (Florida State, JR) | 2775 | 22 | 74 | 19 |
| Anthony Brown (Boston College, JR) | 2323 | 22 | 147 | 17 |
| *Tate Martell (Miami, SO) | 2069 | 14 | 105 | 17 |
| Jawon Pass (Louisville, JR) | 2564 | 13 | 218 | 16 |
| Lucas Johnson (Georgia Tech, JR) | 1828 | 11 | 375 | 16 |
| Kenny Pickett (Pitt, JR) | 2128 | 17 | 236 | 15 |
| Sam Howell (North Carolina, FR) | 2766 | 17 | 83 | 15 |
| Running Back | RuYD | RuTD | ReYD | FPPG |
| Travis Etienne (Clemson, JR) | 1322 | 16 | 66 | 23 |
| AJ Dillon (Boston College, JR) | 1154 | 10 | 63 | 18 |
| Cam Akers (Florida State, JR) | 798 | 7 | 132 | 15 |
| Deon Jackson (Duke, JR) | 744 | 6 | 212 | 15 |
| DeeJay Dallas (Miami, JR) | 825 | 8 | 123 | 14 |
| Ricky Person Jr. (NC State, SO) | 780 | 7 | 64 | 13 |
| Cade Carney (Wake Forest, SR) | 818 | 6 | 78 | 13 |
| Moe Neal (Syracuse, SR) | 728 | 5 | 109 | 12 |
| Hassan Hall (Louisville, SO) | 613 | 6 | 135 | 12 |
| Javonte Williams (North Carolina, SO) | 657 | 6 | 60 | 11 |
| Jordan Mason (Georgia Tech, SO) | 644 | 7 | 25 | 10 |
| Michael Carter (North Carolina, JR) | 592 | 2 | 135 | 10 |
| Antonio Williams (North Carolina, SR) | 451 | 5 | 136 | 10 |
| Wayne Taulapapa (Virginia, SO) | 561 | 6 | 19 | 9 |
| Abdul Adams (Syracuse, JR) | 570 | 5 | 24 | 8 |
| Lyn-J Dixon (Clemson, SO) | 496 | 5 | 9 | 8 |
| A.J. Davis (Pitt, JR) | 534 | 5 | 21 | 8 |
| Deshawn McClease (Virginia Tech, JR) | 521 | 3 | 85 | 8 |
| Brittain Brown (Duke, JR) | 494 | 4 | 38 | 8 |
| Zonovan Knight (NC State, FR) | 464 | 4 | 25 | 7 |
| Khalan Laborn (Florida State, SO) | 333 | 3 | 144 | 7 |
| Christian Beal-Smith (Wake Forest, SO) | 454 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| Jerry Howard (Georgia Tech, JR) | 353 | 3 | 119 | 7 |
| PK Kier (Virginia, JR) | 449 | 4 | 19 | 7 |
| Todd Sibley (Pitt, SO) | 427 | 4 | 16 | 6 |
| Cam’Ron Davis (Miami, SO) | 386 | 3 | 22 | 6 |
| Jalen Holston (Virginia Tech, JR) | 454 | 3 | 22 | 6 |
| Jarveon Howard (Syracuse, SO) | 271 | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| Jamious Griffin (Georgia Tech, FR) | 316 | 3 | 19 | 5 |
| Receiver | Rec | ReYD | ReTD | FPPG |
| Justyn Ross (Clemson, SO) | 52 | 926 | 7 | 16 |
| Tee Higgins (Clemson, JR) | 54 | 859 | 8 | 16 |
| Tamorrion Terry (Florida State, SO) | 52 | 954 | 6 | 16 |
| Trishton Jackson (Syracuse, JR) | 60 | 809 | 6 | 15 |
| Sage Surratt (Wake Forest, SO) | 61 | 795 | 6 | 15 |
| Maurice Ffrench (Pitt, SR) | 55 | 796 | 5 | 15 |
| Emeka Emezie (NC State, JR) | 65 | 728 | 5 | 14 |
| Damon Hazelton (Virginia Tech, JR) | 51 | 803 | 6 | 14 |
| Tre Turner (Virginia Tech, SO) | 52 | 788 | 5 | 14 |
| Sean Riley (Syracuse, SR) | 63 | 656 | 5 | 13 |
| Dez Fitzpatrick (Louisville, JR) | 55 | 743 | 4 | 13 |
| J.F. Thomas (Miami, JR) | 49 | 791 | 4 | 13 |
| Hasise Dubois (Virginia, SR) | 55 | 612 | 6 | 13 |
| Taysir Mack (Pitt, JR) | 46 | 756 | 3 | 12 |
| Aaron Young (Duke, SR) | 52 | 648 | 4 | 12 |
| Dazz Newsome (North Carolina, JR) | 56 | 633 | 3 | 12 |
| Dyami Brown (North Carolina, SO) | 54 | 640 | 4 | 12 |
| K.J. Osborn (Miami, SR) | 40 | 668 | 4 | 11 |
| Tavares Kelly (Virginia, SO) | 43 | 586 | 5 | 11 |
| Taj Harris (Syracuse, SO) | 45 | 552 | 4 | 10 |
| C.J. Riley (NC State, JR) | 47 | 550 | 4 | 10 |
| Jalen Camp (Georgia Tech, SR) | 43 | 579 | 4 | 10 |
| Joe Reed (Virginia, SR) | 43 | 536 | 4 | 10 |
| Kobay White (Boston College, JR) | 33 | 479 | 4 | 9 |
| Ben Glines (Boston College, SR) | 25 | 333 | 3 | 9 |
| Kendall Hinton (Wake Forest, SR) | 33 | 436 | 3 | 9 |
| D.J. Matthews (Florida State, JR) | 47 | 439 | 3 | 9 |
| Malachi Carter (Georgia Tech, SO) | 38 | 463 | 3 | 9 |
| Jake Bobo (Duke, rFR) | 37 | 463 | 3 | 9 |
| Thayer Thomas (NC State, SO) | 39 | 416 | 3 | 8 |
| Scotty Washington (Wake Forest, SR) | 35 | 432 | 3 | 8 |
| Keith Gavin (Florida State, SR) | 30 | 462 | 2 | 8 |
| Chatarius Atwell (Louisville, SO) | 31 | 516 | 2 | 8 |
| Hezekiah Grimsley (Virginia Tech, JR) | 33 | 407 | 3 | 8 |
| Diondre Overton (Clemson, SR) | 27 | 390 | 3 | 7 |
| Beau Corrales (North Carolina, JR) | 33 | 387 | 2 | 7 |
| Warren Thompson (Florida State, rFR) | 29 | 367 | 3 | 7 |
| Seth Dawkins (Louisville, SR) | 29 | 380 | 1 | 6 |
| Ahmarean Brown (Georgia Tech, FR) | 29 | 348 | 2 | 6 |
| Tight Ends | Rec | ReYD | ReTD | FPPG |
| Brevin Jordan (Miami, SO) | 34 | 376 | 3 | 7 |
| Noah Gray (Duke, JR) | 30 | 306 | 2 | 6 |
| Carl Tucker (North Carolina, SR) | 31 | 304 | 2 | 6 |
| Cary Angeline (NC State, JR) | 23 | 222 | 2 | 5 |
| Jack Freudenthal (Wake Forest, SR) | 23 | 273 | 2 | 5 |
| Tre’ McKitty (Florida State, JR) | 25 | 243 | 2 | 5 |
| Tyler Davis (Georgia Tech, SR) | 25 | 257 | 3 | 5 |
| Will Mallory (Miami, SO) | 22 | 216 | 2 | 5 |
| Dalton Keene (Virginia Tech, JR) | 24 | 258 | 2 | 5 |
Projected Standings
| Atlantic | Coastal |
Clemson 12-0 (8-0 in conference) | Miami 10-2 (7-1 in conference) |
NC State 9-3 (6-2 in conference) | Virginia 10-2 (7-1 in conference) |
Syracuse 9-3 (6-2 in conference) | Virginia Tech 9-3 (6-2 in conference) |
Florida State 7-5 (5-3 in conference) | Pitt 6-6 (3-5 in conference) |
Wake Forest 5-7 (4-4 in conference) | Duke 4-8 (2-6 in conference) |
Boston College 5-7 (2-6 in conference) | North Carolina 3-9 (2-6 in conference) |
Louisville 2-10 (0-8 in conference) | Georgia Tech 1-11 (0-8 in conference) |
ACC Atlantic
Clemson Tigers
2018 record: 15-0 (8-0 in conference)
Best NFL Draft prospect: RB Travis Etienne. Etienne is a pure athlete who accelerates to top speed like a dream. He lacks to the extreme as a pass catcher, to the point where he has openly admitted to feeling nervous when the ball comes his way.
The case for: We could have just omitted this section. Everybody already knows the case for Clemson. We saw it in January. Except this year’s team could be even better than last year’s. And that doesn’t feel hyperbolic -- we don’t know what Trevor Lawrence’s eventual ceiling may be, or indeed if he even has one. To think, he wasn’t starting until October. Lawrence is just getting warmed up.
It’s not just Lawrence, though. This is the fully-operational Death Star offense which we were promised in RETURN OF THE JEDI. Lawrence could fling it deep to Justyn Ross or Tee Higgins, or he could hand off to Travis Etienne. Or knows, maybe Lawrence can fly. As Kevin Garnett once screamed incoherently into a microphone at millions of people watching across America, anything is possible.
The Tigers do have to retool after taking massive losses, but guess what? That’s cool! Xavier Thomas is the cat to know up front, taking over for Christian Wilkins on the edge. He had 8.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks last season, and that was in backup capacity. Isiah Simmons leads the secondary after forcing four turnovers last season.
The case against: Well your author would posit that if we all perish in a nuclear war, then TECHNICALLY Clemson won’t be in the title game upcoming. But that’s morbid, and Lawrence would probably throw for 4,000 yards if he was one of those radiation victims at Chernobyl. Setting aside the possibility of nuclear war (which we can’t do in actuality, unfortunately), it’s tough. There are a few potential trip-ups we have spotted.
And they’re early. Clemson will play Texas A&M and Syracuse back-to-back in Weeks 2 & 3. Those are scary games. Maybe the Tigers win them each by 20 points. That wouldn’t surprise in the slightest. But, here’s a scenario for you -- what if those defensive losses we touched on early make the games weird. What if there are juuuuust enough defensive wobbles that Kellen Mond scrambles for 60 yards or Tommy DeVito unleashes a 50-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter and suddenly things are in jeopardy late.
It’s not impossible that they lose one game. What if they do lose one game? Still on solid footing, yeah? What if they lose both? Silence. Unless this is the year that a two-loss team rises up. And Lawrence -- yeah, we’re about to criticize him -- owned a 26/7 TD/INT ratio in his final season of high school in Cartersville. What if he trends closer to seven interceptions than the four he threw as a true freshman last season. That’s enough to matter, small as it may seem. With the best teams we’re looking for small imperfections.
It takes a lot to see Clemson losing a game or two, but it doesn’t take that much. This is something that can happen? Theoretically?
Publish.
Vegas win total over/under: 11.5
Prediction: OVER
NC State Wolf Pack
2018 record: 9-4 (5-3 in conference)
Best NFL Draft prospect: S Jarius Morehead. An aggressive, firecracker of a defender who makes life a living nightmare for opposing skill-position players with a strong head for tackling. Morehead has posted at least 80 tackles each of the past two seasons and has shown a stellar nose for the ball, with five career interceptions, including three last season.
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The case for: At the gates to the ACC summit stands guard Dave Doeren, forever vigilant to swat down unworthy contenders -- they did not play Pitt, alas -- and kneel humbly when the likes of Clemson come marching up the glacier (NC State has not beaten Clemson since 2011; Doeren is 0-6 against the Tigers since taking over in 2012).
We’ll give Doeren this, though: His teams are consistently decent, ranging from seven to nine wins (including bowl action) in every year outside of his first on campus. It’s just a matter of whether they can ever rise above “consistently decent.”
That’s going to be difficult, admittedly, with both QB Ryan Finley and OC Eliah Drinkwitz moving on. Drinkwitz and Finley kept the NC State offense humming. Now, it’ll be Des Kitchens at offensive coordinator (an in-house promotion, something we always like to see) and one of Matt McKay, Bailey Hockman or Devin Leary at quarterback. We don’t know these cats, of course, because Ryan Finley wasn’t leaving the field too often.
The loss of RB Reggie Gallaspy would seem to sting outwardly after he rushed for 1,091 yards and 18 touchdowns last season, but that shouldn’t be sweat too much, not with true frosh Bam Knight coming in and immediately destroying the universe with 139 yards in the team’s spring game. Reggie “4.8 YPC” Gallaspy lacked the breakaway threat that Bam Bam so obviously possesses.
Even if Knight can’t replicate that spring showing immediately in actual games, the team does have an established plodder in Ricky Person, who should be able to fall forward for 600 or so yards to supplement Bam’s lightning. NC State also lost WRs Kelvin Harmon and Jacobi Meyers (they lost a ton tbh), but we aren’t worried there, either, not with Emeka Emezie (53-616-5) and Thayer Thomas (34-383-3) set to step up. Emezie, in particular, could be in for a big year.
There’s more than enough offensive juice, here, to stay quasi-relevant late into the season. If they can hit on a quarterback, their Nov. 9 showdown at home against Clemson might actually matter. NC State does face Clemson in the regular season, but the rest of their schedule is remarkably clean to navigate. They will not play Virginia, nor Miami, in our view the two clear best best teams in the conference outside of Clemson.
The case against: Our sunny side in the above paragraphs only scratched the surface of what NC State lost on offense. They didn’t just lose their starting quarterback, their starting running back, their two best receivers and their offensive coordinator. They also lost three all-conference offensive linemen, headlined by C Garrett Bradbury. If NC State is to dip from decent to mediocre or worse, it’s because they can’t plug all of these holes immediately.
The Wolf Pack have to look no further than conference mates Florida State and Louisville to see how quickly things can turn south with offensive turnover. In Florida State’s case, it was the gradual disintegration of the offensive line, while in Louisville’s case, it was the exit of Lamar Jackson. Lamar, on his own, filled 10 holes in the dam with those gigantic hands of his and then Bobby Petrino was like “See ya, Lamar” and let the whole thing collapse.
Doeren isn’t going to Petrino this thing, but it might not matter, because so, so much has vacated on the offensive side of the ball. It’s not difficult to see NC State lacking for the offensive horses to stay competitive. Their one saving grace is that they play in the ACC, the weakest conference in the country in this author’s opinion. That merely makes the level of competition easier to deal with. It doesn’t actually make you good.
Vegas over/under win total: 7.5
Prediction: OVER
Syracuse Orange
2018 record: 10-3 (6-2 in conference)
Best NFL Draft prospect: DE Alton Robinson. A former four-star prospect who very nearly saw his collegiate career derailed by burglary charges that were ultimately dropped, Robinson plays like a reformed man who knows what it’s like to be knocking on the death door for football. He still has technical deficiencies to shore up before he can become an elite pass-rusher -- he can be handled on outside moves -- but the length and athleticism are there in spades. Not exactly Gumby in terms of his bend, but not a steel rod either.
The case for: We saw the best case for the 2019 incarnation of Syracuse last October, really, in a 40-37 double-overtime win over North Carolina. Then-redshirt freshman QB Tommy DeVito came on in the fourth quarter for Eric Dungey in a roll of the dice by HC Dino Babers after the Orange had squandered a 21-7 third-quarter lead. DeVito hit on 11-of-19 passes for 181 yards and three touchdowns in leading the Orange back from the brink of defeat.
Heck, we thought DeVito would start from that point on, but Babers is not so impatient, sticking with Dungey on the way to a program-defining season. But DeVito, man. The upside of any quarterback who can throw in a Babers system is palatable.
Thing of it is, the palpable optimism surrounding Syracuse isn’t just the excitement around a new starting quarterback. This is an experienced team (13 returning starters) with young playmakers like DeVito and WR Taj Harris, who set program records as a true freshman in catching 40 passes for 565 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 14.1 yards per reception. The defensive is equally equipped with fun playmakers, of whom we would like to highlight DE Alton Robinson and DE Kendall Coleman. Robinson posted 17 TFL and 10 sacks last season, Coleman 12 tackles for loss and 10 sacks.
And then there’s the Clemson aspect. Syracuse is not scared of the Tigers. They beat ‘em outright two years ago and nearly did so last fall -- albeit with injuries to the starting quarterbacks in both games. Syracuse has been within 10 points in four of the last five matchups. You want a little more au jous on this angle? Syracuse will be hosting Clemson for homecoming on Sept. 14, in primetime, one week after the Tigers host a hungry Texas A&M team. Tell us you aren’t excited.
The case against: While Robinson and Coleman are flashy as flash can be on the defensive line, Syracuse’s linebacking corps has been hollowed out considerably with Ryan Guthrie the largest loss complemented by additional vacancies from Keiland Whitlan and Shyheim Cullen. If Syracuse is gouged repeatedly in intermediate passing game, that would not surprise.
The linebacking corps concerns us. What concerns us even more, perhaps, is actually DeVito. Because Syracuse needs him to be what he showed in the aforementioned hero performance against North Carolina. DeVito’s stats, on the whole, are not quite so rosy.
For the season, he completed 44-of-87 passes (50.6% completions) for 525 yards and a 4/3 TD/INT ratio. He averaged 6.0 YPA. Playing largely in backup duty is far from conducive to success and is inconsequential to the starting experience, but those aren’t good numbers no matter how long you squint at them. That doesn’t mean that DeVito is doomed. It does raise a momentary eyebrow.
In order for Syracuse to be the true ACC contender that they are being painted as this offseason, DeVito needs to be a revelation.
Vegas over/under win total: 5
Prediction: OVER
Florida State Seminoles
2018 record: 5-7 (3-5 in conference)
Best NFL Draft prospect: Cam Akers. A young badly in need of an offensive line and a rebound year, Akers plays with quickness and has elite speed, having been clocked at 22.4 MPH. He should currently be viewed as a probable Day 2 pick, but there is tremendous upside to build on his stock if he put 2017 behind him.
The case for: Let us travel to another spot in Florida, say, Boca Raton, for a brief moment. In 2017, FAU was 8th in the country in per-game scoring average, putting in just over 41 points a game. But the Owls fell all the way off to 45th while averaging 10 points less. What gives? Why that would be offensive coordinator Kendal Briles, to Houston.
Kendal Briles creates explosive, malleable offenses which fit to the talent on hand. At FAU two years back, he had a singular talent at running back without any passing game. At Houston last season, he helped make a star out of QB D’Eriq King -- and that was without any running game to speak of (just ask college fantasy owners who gambled on Briles turning Mulbah Carr into a stud).
We can already envision Cam Akers finding his true freshman form, when he rushed for an FSU record 1,025 yards. And we’ll be honest. We’ve always kind of had a soft spot in our hearts for James Blackmon, who will finally have a real starting shot with Deondre Francois melting away in dismissal and disgrace. Blackmon’s not green, having played out the 2017 season while Francois was recovering from a knee injury. He posted a 19/11 TD/INT ratio while completing 58% of his passes. That was as a true freshman. So of course he barely played last season despite the fact that Florida State could have used some kind of spark, any kind of spark. Clemson beat them 59-10 last season. They almost lost to Samford.
We like Blackman. We like Akers. We like athletes like WR Tamorrion Terry and S Levonta Taylor and DE Joshua Kaindoh. Even as a spiraling trainwreck, a team like Florida State is going to have talent on hand.
The case against: Is their offensive line ready to play FBS football or? Mixed results from the spring on that front, and that’s when a receiver making any sideline catching being named a “breakout performer.” Spring practice is barely even a tune-up for the season, to be fair.
But Florida State remains problematic at both tackle spots, without the possibility of reprieve from the oft-injured Landon Dickerson, who transferred to Alabama as a graduate during the offseason. Perhaps NIU transfer Ryan Roberts helps to fix things, kind of, but he is but a man. Ditto four-star freshman G Dontae Lucas, who is probably just a smidge too young to help out in more than a bit role.
Even Briles, for his offensive pyrotechnics, might not be able to scheme his way around the offensive line. Or perhaps to be more accurate, his schematics are going to be limited because the offensive line is limited. Hope the Seminoles are ready to face off with Boise State EDGE Curtis Weaver at the drop of the flag, because the Mountain West preseason Defensive Player of the Year will be coming at them on Aug. 31, to open the season.
Vegas over/under win total: 7
Prediction: PUSH
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
2018 record: 7-6 (3-5 in conference)
Best NFL Draft prospect: CB Essang Bassey. Bassey is going to have to do everything right during the evaluating process, because at 5-foot-10, 190 pounds, he simply does have a desirable height-weight combination. What is desirable in his game, though, is his irritatingly constant presence around the ball. Over the past two seasons, Bassey has logged 31 passes defensed with four interceptions (three of those picks coming last fall). His activity alone will at least put him on the NFL radar. Just how much he manages to blip figures to depend on his measurables. Again, size ain’t helping, here.
The case for: Unleash the Clawfense. It’s a catchy nickname, anyway. Dave Clawson has yet to put together a legit huge season, a 10-win campaign or even a nine-win one, but he has brought Wake Forest to a stable level, at least, with bowl showings each of the last three seasons.
It’s easy enough to see Clawson and crew cresting over the seven-win mark with the right breaks. That’ll start at quarterback, with one of the more interesting quarterback competitions in the country in Sam Hartman and Jamie Newman, true sophomore and true junior respectively. Both saw playing time last season, with Hartman starting out of the gate and Newman for the final month of the campaign.
Newman’s the quarterback we find slightly more intriguing, turning in a pair of sharp performances of three or more touchdowns passes against NC State and Duke, both programs which are not nobodies. Hartman should be able to show something in preseason camp, too. There are worse problems to have than two startable quarterbacks. Heck, Pitt would kill for one.
Wake Forest is set at running back with Cade Carney and Christian Beal-Smith and bring back an experienced set of tackles -- a little more is up in the air inside -- to help pave the way for Carney and friends, to help keep Newman/Hartman clean. And this is a team with a dominant defensive front against the run, ranking 36th in the country on that front by ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s S&P+ rush defense metric. That’ll happen when you have a guy like Carlos Basham wrecking havoc. Basham tied for best mark in the conference with his 23.5 run stuffs last season.
The case against: Sure, the Demon Deacons can stonewall the run. They are not nearly as adept at shutting down the pass. No, they are not adept at all. Last season, Wake Forest ranked 117th in the country against opposing passing games on a per-contest average. There is no immediate hope with that unit.
Then there’s the big loss on offense, in superstud wideout Greg Dortch. Wake Forest is not without bodies in the wide receivers room, but they lack for a clear Dortch replacement, and that in general would point to the cap on Wake’s upside generally speaking -- this is a team largely devoid of explosion on offense. And what’s a Clawfense without teeth?
Vegas over/under win total: 7
Prediction: UNDER
Boston College Eagles
2018 record: 7-5 (4-4 in conference)
Best NFL Draft prospect: RB AJ Dillon. Dillon is a hefty back at 6-foot, 250 pounds and can bulldoze through defenders with the best of them. A step up in both his blocking and his pass catching would help his NFL case, but at this juncture, Dillon is probably squarely in the Day 2 mix.
The case for: It’s a lot to put on one individual player, but Boston College’s entire offense hinges on AJ Dillon. Not just the running game. Everything. Dillon’s mere presence opened up the play-action game for Anthony Brown. Per PFF, Brown last season had the highest adjusted completion percentage on deep passes among returning ACC quarterbacks. That’s AJ Dillon’s presence.
It’s not that Brown’s numbers on the whole were particularly exciting -- 55.4% completions, 7.4 YPA, 20/9 TD/INT ratio -- but Dillon’s gravity-shifting being is what makes this offense go. Perhaps the most exciting part of the fall campaign for Boston College is that we probably have not seen Dillon’s full upside on display yet. He broke out for 1,589 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) and 14 touchdowns as a true freshman, then struggled through ankle issues as a true sophomore.
Everything should be coming together for the big back as he enters his first draft-eligible season. Assuming health. Everything assuming health. Without a healthy Dillon, this is an exceedingly mediocre offense. He gives it its cache.
The case against: We’ll hit back on our original point with Dillon -- everything hinges on him performing at full strength. And Boston College has been optimistic about his health entering the fall. The issue for HC Steve Adazzio is that for as much as Dillon carries this team, Dillon alone is probably not enough to lift them to eight or nine wins.
He needs help elsewhere. He needs help from Brown and in a receiving corp which just lost TE Tommy Sweeney and WR Jeff Smith (deep threat Kobay White should be able to pop on those aforementioned play action shots), he needs help from a ravaged defense which is out ends Zach Allen and Wyatt Ray and LB Connor Strachan and is essentially break in a completely new secondary.
We just don’t think Dillon will actually get the support he needs to elevate Boston College to a new plane of existence in the ACC. And setting aside the obvious holes all over the place on this roster, the Eagles face a rough schedule which includes games against Clemson, Syracuse, Notre Dame, NC State and Virginia Tech. We love Dillon, but if he gets injured, this ship could sink, fast. Adazzio’s job will sink with it if that happens.
Vegas over/under win total: 6.5
Prediction: UNDER
Louisville Cardinals
2018 record: 2-10 (0-8 in conference)
Best NFL Draft prospect: OL Mekhi Becton. Becton has a field-shifting gravity just in terms of his size at 6-foot-7, 355 pounds. That size immediately stands out for pro purposes, though with any player that big, you start to dip into questions about healthy playing weight. If he can trim a few pounds and test well, though, Becton’s frame alone should get him attention.
The case for: Scott Satterfield, savior. After Bobby Petrino left the Cardinals a flaming wreck last season, Louisville shot its shot on Purdue’s Jeff Brohm. That shot missed, with Brohm opting to stick with the Boilermakers. Louisville then pounced on arguably the best coach in the Group of Five in Scott Satterfield.
Satterfield already has experience in guiding a transition crew, taking Appalachian State from the FCS to the FBS without missing a step. At App State, Satterfield compiled a 51-24 record, 38-10 within the Sun Belt. And theoretically, shepherding an FCS to FBS transition is more difficult than shepherding an ACC squad from disaster to respectability. Theoretically.
At Appalachian State, Satterfield buttered his bread with consistently sharp defensive outfits and it would be nice if he had some kind of base to build off there. Colgate LB transfer T.J. Holl (121 tackles, 17 TFL, 3.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and a pick) has an opportunity to make a huge immediate impact, and the defensive front as a whole is not a complete shambles. But realistically, there’s just not much to work with, here. A successful first year for Satterfield will not be record-dependent, rather it will truly be development dependent. He has a lot of clutter to clean up.
The case against: Did you watch Louisville football last season? It offered embarrassing performance after embarrassing performance. Louisville was the most embarrassing team in the entire country, and that’s including a UConn program which surrendered an historic number of points. At least with the Huskies, you knew you were dealing with a train wreck. Louisville was coming off two years of Lamar Jackson and had a quarterback nicknamed Puma.
Bobby Petrino rotted the team from the inside out. Satterfield is exactly the kind of coach this rudderless program needs. But it will take time for everything to click into place. He doesn’t have exciting skill-position talent at his disposal, he doesn’t have a proven winning quarterback. He just has a roster filled with players who have been emotionally traumatized by a bad coach.
A similar situation, if not an exact 1:1 correlation, Chad Morris taking over Arkansas a year back. Remember, the Razorbacks were actually good under Brett Bielema not too long ago. And then the floor out from under them. Even at Arkansas’ nadir, they never swirled in the same frothy backwash of ineptitude that Louisville did last fall, though.
Vegas over/under win total: 4
Prediction: UNDER
