The NFL Draft is always full of surprise and intrigue, but this year’s may be the gold standard against which all subsequent drafts are compared. We saw trades happening both early and often, early picks that seemingly came out of left field and image after image of an increasingly angry Johnny Manziel as he slipped down the draft board. It was exciting.
Even in a draft chock full of surprises, there were a few storylines that shined above all the others.
The Quarterback Slide
The biggest shock of the draft came early as the Jacksonville Jaguars selected UCF QB Blake Bortles with the third overall pick. The pick was not surprising from a needs standpoint. The Jags have been searching for a franchise quarterback for seemingly forever and Chad Henne is a stopgap option at best. Taking Bortles over Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel, however, was a shock.
In the days before the draft, Jaguars GM Dave Caldwell expressed his love for Manziel, saying he was the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft. It was all a ruse though, and Caldwell confirmed afterwards Bortles was his guy all along.
The question now becomes whether or not the Jaguars found the franchise quarterback they have been so desperately searching for. Bortles certainly has the upside to be a top starter for a long time, but he has a lot of maturing to do. It would be ideal for Bortles to sit behind Henne for at least some of next season, but after dedicating such a high pick, it may be difficult for Jacksonville to sit him very long.
Despite a quarterback going top-three, there was not much quarterback love to be found after Bortles.
Manziel had to wait all the way until pick No. 22 for the Browns to select him, and Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater did not hear his name called until the Vikings selected him with the last pick of the first round. Fresno State QB Derek Carr to the Raiders at pick 36 overall and the Patriots’ stunning selection of Eastern Illinois QB Jimmy Garoppolo at pick 62 overall rounded out the quarterbacks selected in the first 115 picks. A stunning series of events considering some people thought as many as five quarterbacks could go in the first 40 picks.
This quarterback class was among the most underwhelming we have seen, and that was underlined by the lack of signal callers selected early. It will be interesting to see if any are able to develop into a quality starter in the league.
Browns Wheeling and Dealing
Before we could even catch our collective breath following the Bortles selection, Cleveland and Buffalo took it away again with a mammoth trade. The Bills sent their 2015 first-round pick to Cleveland in order to move up from ninth overall to fourth overall to select Clemson WR Sammy Watkins.
Watkins will be an excellent playmaker for E.J. Manuel and gives the Bills the big play ability they have been missing from the wide receiver position, but a first-round pick is a steep price to pay for a wide receiver. Watkins will have to be a very special player for Buffalo to justify the cost.
This trade also has to be questioned from the Browns’ perspective. It is still murky how much the Cleveland decision makers knew of Josh Gordon’s potential suspension when making their first-round decision, but wide receiver was a big need even before the Gordon news. As it stands now, the Browns will enter the 2014 season with Greg Little, Nate Burleson and Andrew Hawkins as their top three wide receivers. Not exactly the stuff of dreams.
The Browns were not done dealing after the Bills trade and quickly swapped the ninth overall pick they received from Buffalo for the eighth overall pick held by the Vikings. As soon as the trade came through, speculation began about the Browns coming up to pick Manziel, but that was not their man, at least not yet.
The Browns instead used the pick on Oklahoma State CB Justin Gilbert. Gilbert is a fine player and was the top corner on a lot of people’s boards, but why give up a fifth-round pick to move up the one spot? It was very unlikely the Vikings are anyone else wanted to use the eighth overall on a corner, and even if they did a lot of teams had Virginia Tech CB Kyle Fuller rated higher than Gilbert.
It was an unnecessary and costly move considering the amount of talent available in the fifth round.
Again, the Browns were not done moving around. The final deal of the Browns’ first round had Cleveland swapping the 26th overall pick and a third rounder for the Eagles’ 22nd overall. Twitter was abuzz after this trade. Surely this was Johnny Football’s time.
Finally, mercifully, it was.
It was quite a move for Cleveland. They read the quarterback market correctly and were able to get the guy most people thought they coveted at pick four a full 18 picks later while helping their defense and adding a first-round pick in 2015.
For Manziel, he fell into one of the better positions for a rookie quarterback. He may be without Josh Gordon or really any weapons besides Jordan Cameron, but he will get to work with a coach in Kyle Shanahan with a proven record of success using a young, mobile, somewhat impulsive quarterback.
Expect Shanahan to take a page out his own Robert Griffin III book. He will get Manziel moving out of the pocket and give him the opportunity to make big plays both with his legs and by pushing the ball downfield.
Shanahan should also use Manziel’s mobility and the read-option game to make the Browns’ rushing attack more potent. That should spell early success for Ben Tate and, once Tate is injured, success for Towson RB Terrance West, who the Browns acquired by moving back into the third round, or Alabama State RB Isaiah Crowell, who the Browns signed as an undrafted free agent.
The Browns were certainly the most active of any first round team and among the most active of the entire draft. It will be interesting to see if these moves help the Browns finally jump into playoff contention.
Missouri DE Michael Sam’s Long Wait
The talk of the late rounds was the slide of Missouri DE Michael Sam, who did not come off the board until the Rams took him with the 249th overall pick.
Sam is attempting to become the first openly-gay athlete to compete in the NFL, and as such he has earned national headlines and attention from sports fans and non-sports fans alike. Understandably then, a ton of attention was paid to his draft stock. Unfortunately for Sam a lack of a true position and a lack of even serviceable measurables for a pass rusher pushed him way down draft boards.
Now that he is drafted, attention will switch to his roster status. Sam will likely have to beat out one of Sammy Brown or Eugene Sims to makes the Rams’ final 53, and even then he will be limited to just a situational pass rusher. He may be best served spending a year developing on the practice squad.
No matter what happens with Sam moving forward, his selection is truly a watershed moment for the NFL.
Titans Plug Non-Existent Hole
The Tennessee Titans shocked the world when they selected Michigan OT Taylor Lewan with the 11th overall pick in the draft. Lewan is a talented player worthy of being selected in the top-15, but the Titans were not the team to do it.
Tennessee had a ton of needs on both sides of the ball, but offensive line was not among them. They have All-Pro Michael Roos at left tackle for at least one more season, solid guards in Andy Levitre and second-year player Chance Warmack, and second-year center Brian Schwenke is only going to get better.
The only weak link on the offensive line is newly-acquired Michael Oher, but Tennessee gave him $9.5 million guaranteed barely a month before the draft. There is no way they will sit Oher after giving him all that money. That leaves few scenarios for Lewan to be a Week 1 starter, and it is borderline criminal for a team with this many needs to leave pick 11 without a Week 1 starter.
Perhaps this signing is for the future. Roos is quality, but he is not going to play forever. Once Roos leaves or retires, Lewan could kick out to left tackle and hold down that position for a long time. If future was the idea, though, why not go quarterback? The fact that Jake Locker’s fifth-year option went unused is sign enough they are not sold on the former first-round pick, and they were in a prime position to snag Manziel or Bridgewater.
The move was perplexing and easily the worst pick of the first round.
Running Backs Get No Respect
The debate about why no running back was taken in the first round for the second consecutive year and why no running back was selected in the first 50 picks in this year’s draft will rage on for some time to come. Some see it as simply a lack of talent at the position over the last two seasons, while others view it as a devaluation of the running back position in general in the NFL.
Whatever the cause, the fact is the Titans’ selection of Washington RB Bishop Sankey at pick No. 54 overall was the latest the initial running back has come off the board in the history of the common NFL Draft.
Sankey’s selection started a chain reaction, however, and by the end of Day Two seven running backs had been drafted. Certainly not the record-breaking 16 wide receivers – I consider Kent State RB/WR Dri Archer as a wideout – that came off the board in the first two days of the draft, but not a total that is too far off the historical mark for running backs.
For instance, only six running backs went in the first three rounds in 2004 and 2009, but in each of those years three running backs went in the first round. The point is the number of backs selected in the “early rounds” this season is not that much different than what we have seen in the past. The real difference is how early these backs are going.
The reason for the shift is quite simple. Why invest a high pick in a running back if no other team plans to? The draft is all about value, and the best way to find value is to understand the opponent’s plans and exploit the opponent’s weaknesses or misconceptions.
The lack of running backs at the top of the draft is not a reflection of the decreasing importance of the position, then, but a reflection of the ability to get quality players at the position later in the draft thanks to everyone’s willingness to wait. That was evident by the panic that ensued after the first running back was taken. Two more runners came off the board immediately, and three teams traded up in order to draft their running backs on the second day.
Why would three GMs trade up to get running backs once the dam had been broken unless they valued the position and did not want to lose out on their prospects? If the position was as plug-and-play position as some would like to believe, no GM would have given up valuable picks simply to ensure they got their coveted player. This alone shows teams still value the position. They just know they can get quality players later in the draft.
Everything is cyclical in the NFL, and the running back will come back into vogue for the league at large again at some point in the future. For the smarter teams, though, running backs are still very much in style.
Big Fellas Dominate Day Two
As the game has transitioned to a more pass-happy brand of football, the guys that protect the quarterback and the guys that sack the quarterback have become exponentially more important. Nowhere was that more apparent than the second day of the 2014 NFL Draft.
Six offensive tackles, eight offensive guards, three centers, eight defensive tackles and six defensive ends came off the board on the second day of the draft. Those 31 players represented 45% of the players drafted on Day Two.
The most surprising of the second day picks was Carolina taking Missouri DE Kony Ealy with pick No. 60 overall. Ealy was a first-round talent on some people’s boards, but on the surface the Ealy pick is not a need-filler for a team with several holes to plug.
The Panthers already have two excellent defensive ends in Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy, and Ealy is not unseating either of them any time soon. The reality is, however, that Hardy is currently working on a one-year, franchise-tag deal and Johnson has had knee problems in the past. There is no guarantee either will be with the Panthers in 2015.
Also, as the Seahawks have taught the league, a team can never have too many pass rushers. Ealy will be able to rotate in when Johnson and Hardy get winded and could fill in at defensive tackle on passing downs.
Ealy may not have filled a huge need, but he represented good value and fits Carolina’s mentality. It was not quite as horrible a pick as some would think.
The most impressive of the big fella picks may have come back to back towards the end of the third round. The first came when the Bears selected Arizona State DT Will Sutton with the 82nd overall pick.
Sutton fell down draft boards because of a poor senior season in which he played at 320 pounds after playing at closer 275 pounds as a junior. Sutton claims the weight gain was intentional and the result of some “bad information” he received about what he needed to do to be an NFL player. Sutton is back down to the 290 range now and should return to being the dominant inside distributor that notched 13 sacks as a junior. He could end up being a steal for the Bears.
The very next pick off the board was another excellent value as the Texans nabbed Norte Dame NT Louis Nix with the 83rd overall pick, a full 51 picks after many people expected the Texans to snap him up.
Nix is a 6-foot-2, 331 pound behemoth that projects as a “zero technique” run stuffer in Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 defense. He was slowed by a knee injury in 2013 and subsequently saw his draft stock fall, but he should make an immediate impact as a rotation player with Jerrell Powe and could develop into a premier run stuffer in the NFL.
Jets Get Reach-y
The biggest reach of the draft came when the Jets selected Maryland CB Dexter McDougal with the 80th overall pick. McDougal is a good athlete with a physical playing style that will fit well in a Rex Ryan defense, but he was a sixth round pick at best.
The opportunity cost of taking him three rounds before he should have come off the board was huge. The Jets gave up the opportunity to select a more talented corner like Phillip Gaines or Bashaud Breeland, or they could have addressed wide receiver or one of their other need positions. Then, if McDougal was their guy, they could have taken him two or three rounds later. The Draft is all about value, and McDougal offered none in the third round.
The Jets then started Saturday with another reach, taking Oklahoma WR Jalen Saunders ahead of more highly rated options at the wide receiver position. Saunders is a good slot prospect but was more of a sixth or seventh rounder. There was no need to take him that early, especially considering Saunders does not offer much more than incumbent slot man Jeremy Kerley. The Jets really needed the outside threat they found 11 picks later with UCLA WR Shaq Evans, so why not pass on Saunders for another position of need?
The Jets have a clear vision of who they want to be and made some good picks in this draft, but these two cannot be called anything but reaches.
Interesting Saturday Picks
Chicago addressed their No. 2 running back position in an exceptional way when they drafted Arizona RB Ka’Deem Carey at pick No. 117 overall. There is an argument to be made that Carey is the best running back in this class despite his speed concerns, and he should provide a solid backup option behind Matt Forte.
The Steelers finally got the big receiver they had been coveting when they selected Clemson WR Martavis Bryant with the 118th overall pick. Bryant is ready right now to contribute as a deep threat and has the skill set to develop into a top-level outside receiver.
The Arizona Cardinals ended the long quarterback drought by taking Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas with the 120th overall pick. Thomas theoretically fits Arians’ vertical passing game, but will need a lot of work to become a starting NFL quarterback. His future may be at tight end.
Cleveland traded up in the first round to select CB Justin Gilbert, but that did not stop them from taking Lindenwood CB Pierre Desir with the No. 127 overall pick. Desir is a big, athletic cornerback that has starting-caliber talent. He could turn into a steal.
The Texans spurned everyone’s mock drafts by not addressing their quarterback need early in the draft. Despite picking Pittsburgh QB Tom Savage with the 135th overall pick, they did not address the quarterback need late either. Savage is a developmental option at best and will offer nothing early. Unless the Texans execute a trade for Ryan Mallett, they are looking at the unenviable prospect of Ryan Fitzpatrick or Case Keenum as their Week 1 starter.
The Vikings waited a while but may have addressed their guard issues with Stanford G David Yankey at pick No. 145 overall. Yankey is not very athletic but has the experience and intelligence to be an effective blocker at the next level. He will be given a shot to unseat Charlie Johnson at left guard.
Baylor RB Lache Seastrunk represented good value when the Redskins selected him with the 186th overall pick, but he is a surprising selection based on what the Redskins were looking for. Washington needs an upgrade on Roy Helu Jr. as the third-down, change-of-pace back in their offense. Seastrunk is not that upgrade. He has almost zero experience in pass protection and below-average hands. Seastrunk is good in space, but Coach Jay Gruden will have trouble getting him there unless he improves in the passing game.
If the Jets were trying to corner the market on quarterbacks that will not be in the league in three years, they may have hit the jackpot with Clemson WR Tajh Boyd at pick No. 213. He has some physical skills that NFL teams covet, but his accuracy issues are simply too big to overcome. He will be lucky to beat out Matt Simms.
The Jaguars selected UCF RB Storm Johnson 222nd overall pick, reuniting him with college teammate Blake Bortles. Johnson is buried on the depth chart behind Toby Gerhart, Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson, but no one on that list is exciting and Johnson has the talent to be a late-round surprise. He is a player to keep an eye on.
Buffalo got a first round talent when they selected Miami OT Seantrel Henderson with the No. 237 overall pick, but multiple issues off the field and questionable dedication on it led to Henderson falling far in the draft. He is a classic boom-or-bust pick and a great selection in the seventh round.
Undrafted Difference Makers
Every season there are a handful of undrafted free agents that have an immediate impact in the NFL and this season will not be any different. There are a ton of available players that could have an early impact in the NFL.
At the skill positions, Alabama State RB Isaiah Crowell and Oregon TE Colt Lyerla both slipped out of the draft because of character concerns but both have the talent to be impact players at the next level.
Crowell was snapped up quickly after the draft by the Cleveland Browns and should compete with fellow rookie Terrance West for the backup duties behind injury-prone starter Ben Tate. Crowell was the best running back in this class on pure running ability and has the potential to be a three-down starter if he keeps his head on straight.
Lyerla was not snatched up so quickly but still has the opportunity to be an impact player. He is the prototypical “move” tight end that causes mismatches in the passing game and is one of the best after the catch at the tight end position. He should find a home soon and, as long as he keeps his off-the-field life in order, could be a big-time playmaker.
Tennessee RB Rajion Neal does not possess the upside of Lyerla or Crowell, but he could develop into a solid rotational back in the NFL or even a low-end starter. He will develop behind Eddie Lacy and James Starks in Green Bay and has the skill set to challenge for third-down work early in his career.
Tennessee OT Antonio “Tiny” Richardson slipped out of the draft due to physical concerns despite having second-round talent. Minnesota snapped him up quickly in free agency, and he could end up being one of the steals of the “draft.”
On the defensive side, Texas DE Jackson Jeffcoat and Stanford ILB Shayne Skov could have an impact at the next level.
Jeffcoat did not have the career at Texas his status out of high school would have suggested, but he is a solid player who can be a situational rusher in the NFL. He will have a hard time finding playing time with the Seahawks, but a year on their practice squad could not hurt.
Skov does not possess the physical attributes to be a three-down inside ‘backer in the NFL, but he projects well as a two-down run thumper that can set the tone for a defense. His aggressive style may eventually lead to durability concerns, but the Niners could have a solid pro on their hands for several years to come.
