Happy Week 15, everyone. It’s the semifinals of the fantasy playoffs. (In most leagues.) Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is aimed toward season-long leagues but can also be used for daily fantasy purposes, as these are players I’ll likely have some exposure to over the weekend.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Aaron Rodgers at Panthers: He’s baaack. Out since a Week 6 broken collarbone, Rodgers is retaking his job as the 7-6 Packers’ starter. They likely need to win out to have a chance at the playoffs, and Rodgers gives Green Bay as good of a shot as any other team. The schedule isn’t easy by any means, and it’s tough right out of the gate. Carolina is No. 7 in pass-defense DVOA, No. 7 in total pass defense, No. 8 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and No. 3 in sacks. The Panthers stopped Case Keenum’s hot streak in Charlotte last week, forcing Keenum to commit three turnovers. But this is Aaron freaking Rodgers. Any time he’s starting, he should be in fantasy lineups. Rodgers hasn’t faced Carolina since 2015, the year the Panthers went to the Super Bowl. Week 9 that year, Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns in Charlotte. This game’s total has jumped nearly three points up to 47 since it was announced Rodgers was medically cleared Tuesday evening. That’s tied for the fourth-highest total on the slate. Due to the nature of the Packers’ defense, Rodgers may have to get into a shootout. He’s a top-end QB1 right out of the layoff.
Starts
Nick Foles at Giants: Following Carson Wentz’s season-ending ACL tear last week against the Rams, Foles will be making his first start of the season. It’ll be Foles’ first starts since Week 2 of last season with the Chiefs when he completed 20-of-33 passes for 187 yards and one score. Foles last season as a full-time starter was his 2015 disaster with the Jeff Fisher-led Rams. Foles doesn’t deserve the entire blame for that year. Foles didn’t look great in relief of Wentz last week but did make a couple big-moment throws to help seal the win. He now gets a Giants team that is 31st in total pass defense, 25th in pass-defense DVOA, 32nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and remains without top CB Janoris Jenkins (ankle), who was placed on I.R. after Thanksgiving. All of Foles’ pass catchers are in good spots, which naturally makes Foles someone to consider as a streamer, even if he isn’t nearly at Wentz’s level. This game has a minuscule 40-point total, but as 7.5-point favorites, the Eagles have a respectable implied team total of 23.75 points.
Case Keenum vs. Bengals: Keenum is coming off one of his worst games QB rating-wise of the season last week against the Panthers, but he was really hurt by his teammates, who dropped at minimum five passes, one of which resulted in an interception. And Keenum easily should have had a third touchdown pass, but Adam Thielen dropped two four-yard scores in the span of three plays. Ironically, it was Keenum’s best graded game of the season over at Pro Football Focus. On paper, the Bengals don’t present a matchup to pick on. The Bengals are No. 8 in total pass defense, 12th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and tied at No. 7 in sacks. However, they’re 19th in pass-defense DVOA and have faced an extremely easy quarterback schedule the last six games, a run that has included Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Brock Osweiler, DeShone Kizer, Ben Roethlisberger, and Mitchell Trubisky. Big Ben just threw for 290 yards and a pair of scores against them in Week 13, and Trubisky had his best fantasy day of the year last week, totaling 276 yards and two scores. Both were home games for the Bengals. Keenum has tossed multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games and should rebound back at home in the dome with zero weather concerns. It also helps that Bengals CBs Dre Kirkpatrick (concussion) and Darqueze Dennard (knee) remain out of practice. Minnesota is a massive 11-point favorite with a 26.5-point implied team total.
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Titans: The touchdowns haven’t been there for Garoppolo through two starts, as he’s thrown just one score and two interceptions, but Garoppolo has played really well against the Bears and Texans on the road. He’ll now make his first home start with his new team. The Titans are 23rd in pass-defense DVOA, 22nd in total pass defense, 23rd in pass touchdowns given up, and 18th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Blaine Gabbert was dreadful against the Titans last week, but Tom Savage managed the QB14 finish against Tennessee in Week 13. Ben Roethlisberger was the overall QB2 in Week 11. Tennessee has faced the most pass attempts against through 14 weeks, while San Francisco has the highest pass-play percentage under first-year coach Kyle Shanahan. At No. 5 in run defense, the Titans are true pass-funnel defense, playing right into the hands of the Niners. Garoppolo has a multi-touchdown game in his near future. This one sets up well for that. The Niners are two-point home favorites in a game with a 44-point total.
Sits
http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3147/Alex-SmithAlex Smith vs. Chargers: Smith was in a smash spot against the Raiders at home last week, but things didn’t go as planned with Smith throwing for just 268 yards and no scores with one pick. The box score doesn’t tell the whole story, though. Smith easily could have had three or four touchdowns if not for a couple missed red-zone opportunities with Travis Kelce that resulted in a dropped TD, overturned one on replay, and then a third was called back on penalty. Smith, fantasy’s QB3, gets a much tougher draw this time around. The Chargers are No. 6 in pass-defense DVOA, third in total pass defense, and sixth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Only four teams have surrendered fewer pass touchdowns, and L.A. is third in interceptions. The pass-rush duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram to go along with the cornerback trio of Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, and Desmond King combine to pose real problems for opposing pass offenses. Smith was the QB21 when these two teams met back in Week 3, and Tom Brady is the only one with a top-12 finish against the Chargers since Week 1. I’d play any of the “starts” above over Smith.
Jared Goff at Seahawks: The QB11 in fantasy, Goff has just five top-12 finishes on the season. When he does have big games they’re often huge. When the Rams and Seahawks squared off in L.A. in Week 5, Goff had no touchdowns and a pair of interceptions with a season-worst QB24 finish. Since then, Seattle has lost CB Richard Sherman (Achilles’), SS Kam Chancellor (neck), and DE Cliff Avril (neck), so the matchup has gotten a bit softer. The Seahawks still play good enough defense, particularly at home, to make Goff someone to avoid in the fantasy semifinals. In the Seahawks’ last three home games, Carson Wentz has been the QB13, Matt Ryan the QB14, and Kirk Cousins the QB24. Goff is only a two-quarterback league option.
Derek Carr vs. Cowboys: One of the biggest disappointments of both the fantasy and real-life season, Carr has been a total disaster under new OC Todd Downing. He’s 19th in passer rating, 14th in touchdowns, and 20th in yards per attempt. Carr is the QB20 in fantasy points per game. Even last week against a Chiefs pass defense that had been getting shredded by quarterbacks all season, Carr threw for just 211 yards, a score, and two interceptions. Carr comes back home to face a Dallas team that is 22nd in pass-defense DVOA, 23rd in total pass defense, and 22nd in fantasy points allowed. But the Raiders will again be without Amari Cooper (ankle), and Carr has let us down in numerous plus spots this season. He’s simply impossible to trust as a streamer in the fantasy semis. Oakland is implied to score 21.5 points as a three-point underdog at home against Ezekiel Elliott-less Dallas.
RUNNING BACK
Start of the Week: Latavius Murray vs. Bengals: Since Week 7, Murray is fantasy’s RB8. He has topped 75 yards and/or scored a touchdown in 5-of-7 games in that span. But Murray hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last two games after scoring four times the previous three outings. Murray is also coming off his worst game in the last seven weeks, rushing for 14 scoreless yards on nine carries against the Panthers. This looks like a prime bounce-back spot for Murray with the Vikings as double-digit home favorites. Prior to last week, Murray was averaging 17.1 carries per day the previous seven games. The Bengals also may again be without starting LBs Vontaze Burfict (concussion) and Nick Vigil (ankle) after both missed practice Wednesday and sat Week 14. The Bengals are 18th in run-defense DVOA, 32nd in total run defense, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Only the 49ers have faced more rushing attempts. With the Vikings as such heavy home favorites, Murray should easily flirt with 16-20 carries and provides touchdown upside.
Starts
Jay Ajayi at Giants: In the Week 14 win over the Rams, Ajayi’s 47% snap rate and 16 touches marked new highs for him in an Eagles uniform. With Carson Wentz (knee) out for the remainder of the season, it would make sense for the new game plan to be centered around the running game and playing tough defense. If we’re to look at Week 14, Ajayi would seem to be taking over this backfield after a month and a half of uncertain usage since the trade deadline deal. Unfortunately, it’s no guarantee that Corey Clement and/or LeGarrette Blount won’t threaten Ajayi and vie for the lead role. This backfield is in an unbelievably good spot against a Giants defense that is 29th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, 25th in run-defense DVOA, and 31st in total run defense. They’ve been getting killed by opposing run games all year. http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/1962/Rod-SmithRod Smith just totaled 160 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 touches against New York last week, while Alfred Morris chipped in 85 yards on 22 touches. In Week 13, Marshawn Lynch had his lone 100-yard game of the year with a 17-101-1 line. Ajayi comes with risk due to the Clement-Blount duo, but he’s on the FLEX map Sunday.
Peyton Barber vs. Falcons: Doug Martin returned from his concussion last week to rush for a touchdown, but he managed just 26 yards on his 10 carries and had a real weak fumble in the second quarter that got Martin benched for the entire second half. It was all Barber from there, and Barber again ran circles around Martin. Barber totaled 63 yards on his 13 touches and should get the Week 15 start and dominate the majority of the workload. Atlanta is 30th in run-defense DVOA, 12th in total run defense, and 14th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Mark Ingram managed 92 total yards on 16 touches against the Falcons in Week 14, and Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon combined for 149 yards and one touchdown on 33 touches. Barber again comes with risk in the event the clueless Bucs go back to Martin, but after last week, Barber seems to be the guy.
http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/9773/Mike-DavisMike Davis vs. Rams: Davis missed Week 12 with a groin issue and has proven to be a bit prone to injury in the four weeks he’s been atop the depth chart. But Davis has drawn touch counts of 20 and 16 the past two games, even with missing much of the second half of last week’s loss to the Jaguars with a ribs issue. Davis played 73% of the snaps Week 13 against Philly and should settle into that 60-70% range when healthy enough to make it through a full game. Davis is practicing this week and should be fine for the big NFC West battle with the Rams. L.A. has yielded the second-most fantasy points to running backs and fifth-most rushing yards in the league. The 4.7 YPC mark against the Rams is the second-highest, ahead of only the Patriots. Davis has settled in as a solid RB2 play as a home favorite in a game with a high total and playing in a good offense.
Sits
http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/8992/Jonathan-StewartJonathan Stewart vs. Packers: Stewart had arguably the game of his life last week against the Vikings, rushing for over 100 yards and scoring three touchdowns. The first touchdown was a perfectly-blocked and defensively misplayed 60-yard run when a defender wasn’t even in the area. Stewart ran untouched to the end zone and then followed it up with two one-yard scores in the second half. Stewart has been getting more goal-line work recently, as Christian McCaffrey’s touches are down. But Stewart had also failed to top 50 yards rushing in 7-of-9 previous games. He’s such a touchdown-or-bust proposition against a Packers team that is No. 7 in run-defense DVOA. Green Bay’s 4.0 YPC against is 12th-best. Many will be chasing Stewart’s big Week 13, but sharp regression is certainly in order. Stewart is start-able as an RB3/FLEX, but the floor is incredibly low at the Frank Gore-ish level. Stewart also hasn’t caught a pass in 10 weeks. This game has shootout potential, but Stewart is likely going to need goal-line carries to put up big numbers.
Duke Johnson vs. Ravens: Johnson’s snap percentage was way down at 43% last week against the Packers in a game the Browns were leading much of the afternoon. He saw 10 touches but turned them into 49 yards and a score. Prior to last week, Johnson had scored just once since Week 5. His touches have also been hovering around 10 the past couple weeks and has been held to single-digit touches two of the past four games. The Ravens are 21st in fantasy points allowed to running backs, but they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest catches for the ninth-fewest yards to the position. That’s where Johnson butters his bread. Isaiah Crowell is the better play of the two in this one. Johnson is a low-floor RB3/FLEX option in PPR formats with legit bust potential.
Wayne Gallman vs. Eagles: Gallman played a season-high 46.3% of the snaps and toted the rock a season-high 12 times with seven catches against the Cowboys. Orleans Darkwa fumbled on his first carry but remained involved throughout. However, Gallman was given more run and did well with 59 yards rushing at a 4.9 YPC clip and 40 yards receiving. It was a good sign from the rookie back, but anticipate he and Darkwa splitting reps this Sunday against the Eagles. Philly is No. 4 in run-defense DVOA and No. 1 in total run defense and fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Eagles are allowing just 71.2 rushing yards per game. That’s not enough to make either Darkwa or Gallman a viable play in the fantasy semifinals.
WIDE RECEIVER
Start of the Week: Jamison Crowder vs. Cardinals: Since Terrelle Pryor was phased out of the offense in Week 8 and eventually place on I.R. a few weeks later, Crowder has averaged 9.1 targets per game. With Jordan Reed (hamstring, I.R.) also out, Crowder has taken over as the Redskins’ clear No. 1 receiver. He was unable to do much last week against the Chargers, but L.A. boasts the league’s best pass defense and best trio of corners. Crowder should be able to bounce back at home against a Cardinals unit that will have Patrick Peterson likely on Josh Doctson and Tramon Williams manning http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3252/Ryan-GrantRyan Grant. Crowder figures to draw mostly Tyrann Mathieu in coverage. Mathieu is Pro Football Focus’ No. 69 cover corner out of 119 qualifiers and presents the best one-on-one matchup on the board for the Redskins. Arizona has struggled to contain slot men all year. Crowder is a high-floor WR2 option with upside in PPR formats.
Starts
Dede Westbrook vs. Texans: In four games since making his debut, Westbrook has averaged 8.25 targets per game. In that same span, No. 1 receiver Marqise Lee has averaged 6.75 but has also had two square-offs with Patrick Peterson and Jason McCourty in those four outings. Westbrook only seems to be getting better, going 6-78 and 5-81-1 the past two Sundays. He now gets a date with a Texans defense that has had a number of easy/easier dates the past month-plus against Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Blaine Gabbert, and Jacoby Brissett. Brissett, Gabbert, and Garoppolo all had respectable outings. Blake Bortles is coming off big games against Seattle and Indianapolis and has a chance to repeat the deed at home against Houston. Westbrook is expected to see a lot of CB http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/1685/Kevin-JohnsonKevin Johnson, who is Pro Football Focus’ No. 118 cover corner out of 119 qualifiers. Johnson has allowed four touchdowns and a 134.7 passer rating.
Corey Coleman vs. Ravens: Coleman laid a dud in Josh Gordon’s debut back in Week 13 against the Chargers, catching zero passes, but that was a real difficult matchup, and he was able to rebound last week with a 5-62-1 day against the Packers. Coleman has been getting a ton of targets downfield from DeShone Kizer and has multi-big-play upside against a Ravens defense that just lost top CB http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/1469/Jimmy-SmithJimmy Smith to a torn Achilles’ two weeks ago. It’ll be Brandon Carr and rookie Marlon Humphrey on the outside for Baltimore, with Maurice Canady in the slot. Humphrey has played really well on limited snaps, but the loss of Smith was felt big time last week against the Steelers. Coleman is extremely boom-or-bust as a WR3, but Kizer showed improvement last week. That coupled with Baltimore’s loss of Smith makes the play a worthwhile one as a WR3/4 with huge upside.
Mohamed Sanu at Bucs: Sanu is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. He’s topped 60 yards and/or scored a touchdown in eight of the past 11 games and just hung an 8-64-0 line on this same Bucs defense back in Week 12. Tampa Bay has been getting killed by opposing slot receivers all season. Bucs slot CB Robert McClain is Pro Football Focus’ No. 89 cover corner out of 119 qualifiers, and DC http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/3400/Mike-Smithhttp://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/7012/Mike-Smithhttp://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/8337/Mike-SmithMike Smith’s unit has particularly struggled against Atlanta’s receivers in recent meetings. Julio Jones is arguably the best receiver play on the board for Week 15. Sanu gets a similarly gorgeous draw, and his consistency has made him a respectable WR3 play.
Sits
Jermaine Kearse at Saints: Kearse is 12th among all receivers in targets per game (9.0) over the past month. But that was all with Josh McCown at quarterback. He’s now out with a broken hand, and Bryce Petty is the man at quarterback the final three weeks. Petty and No. 1 WR Robby Anderson showed a real connection last year, but we’ve not seen Petty play with Kearse. And Petty is a significant downgrade on McCown. On top of that, the Saints are No. 4 in pass-defense DVOA and have their cornerbacks healthy again after all three of Marshon Lattimore, Ken Crawley, and P.J. Williams missed time in recent weeks. This game has some potential shootout appeal, but it’s anyone’s guess as to how the Jets will play without McCown. Kearse is a complete fade.
DeSean Jackson vs. Falcons: Jackson saw a season-high 11 targets the last time these two clubs met back in Week 12. He and Mike Evans combined to draw 23 looks between the two of them in a game the Bucs were losing by multiple scores in for much of the afternoon. In Tampa Bay this time, this one figures to be a bit closer with a six-point spread on Sunday night. Jackson has scored just one touchdown since Week 6 and hasn’t hit the 100-yard mark since Week 5. He’s been held to 41 yards or fewer in three of the last four contests. Jackson isn’t even hitting his floor right now, let alone his ceiling. He’s wholly unreliable at this stage of the fantasy season. Running the bulk of his routes on the right side, Jackson also figures to see the most of LCB Desmond Trufant.
Kelvin Benjamin vs. Dolphins: Benjamin again left last week’s game against the Colts with another knee issue. Luckily, it doesn’t seem to be serious. He’s been practicing this week and looks to be on track for Sunday. Unfortunately for him, Benjamin figures to see a lot of sudden shutdown CB Xavien Howard, who is coming off the Defensive Player of the Week honors and just absolutely locked down Brandin Cooks last Monday night while picking off Tom Brady twice. He’s just the second player in the last 10 years to record two picks in a game against Brady. And over the last three games, Howard has surrendered just two catches for 30 yards on 17 targets in his coverage. In three games with his new team, Benjamin has yet to top 42 yards. No thanks on him for the semis.
TIGHT END
Start of the Week: Hunter Henry at Chiefs: It seems the Chargers have finally figured it out. Henry needs to be on the field and has to get targets. Over the past four weeks, that’s exactly what has happened. Henry is averaging 6.25 targets per game in that span and has topped 50 yards in three straight with a pair of touchdowns. Kansas City has played solid tight end defense for the most part this season, allowing the fourth-fewest catches to the position, but those catches have gone for the ninth-most yards. Jared Cook popped back up for a big game against this unit last week. Henry has hurt owners this season, but his production has been steady of late and locks him in as a TE1.
Starts
Ricky Seals-Jones at Redskins: Seals-Jones played a season-best 27.7% of the snaps last week against the Titans, but his targets dipped to three as Blaine Gabbert was unfathomably bad. However, Seals-Jones is still out-targeting Jermaine Gresham 19-11 over the last four weeks, and RSJ clearly has Gabbert’s eye. The Redskins have been getting killed by tight ends all season, yielding the sixth-most catches for the third-most yards and third-most touchdowns to the position. Going out on the road with no http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/2491/Adrian-PetersonAdrian Peterson (neck, I.R.), the Cardinals are going to continue to throw the ball at will. Hunter Henry just pasted this Redskins defense for 50 yards and a score last week. The only thing holding Seals-Jones back is playing time. But in a week where the tight-end streamer crop is really weak, there’s enough here to get excited about for Seals-Jones.
http://www.nbcsports.com/edge/player/NFL/10178/Charles-ClayCharles Clay vs. Dolphins: Since returning from his knee scope in Week 10, Clay has averaged just under four targets per game. That’s not cutting it. But with Kelvin Benjamin less than 100% and rookie Zay Jones again struggling, Clay is at or near the top of the totem pole for targets in Buffalo. He also gets a #RevengeGame against his former Dolphins ‘mates in a plus matchup. Miami has allowed the third-most catches for the 11th-most yards and third-most touchdowns to tight ends. The last time Clay played Miami, Week 16 of last year, he hung an 8-85-2 line on them. Clay’s ceiling isn’t quite that high, and he hasn’t scored since Week 3, but his floor is somewhat bankable.
Jared Cook vs. Cowboys: Cook had been held to two catches or fewer in three straight games before last week’s slump-busting 5-75-1 day against the Chiefs. Cook has let us down so many times in soft matchups that it’s really hard to take him seriously, but he’s still eighth among all tight ends in targets this season. Dallas has been middle of the pack against tight ends this year, surrendering the 11th-most catches and 15th-most yards to the position. However, with Amari Cooper again out with an ankle sprain, Cook rises up the ladder as the No. 2 pass-game option in a home game with a decent 46-point total. There are far worse tight end plays than Cook.
Sits
Greg Olsen vs. Packers: Olsen returned from his foot aggravation last week against the Vikings to play 92% of the snaps, but he was a complete non-factor on the stat sheet, failing to catch his one target. The good news is he was on the field a ton and running a bunch of routes, but Olsen clearly isn’t 100% and now gets a tough test against a Packers defense that is allowing just 5.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends, good for second-best behind Minnesota. Olsen is simply too tough to trust in the fantasy semifinals coming off a multi-week injury that still isn’t right.
Eric Ebron vs. Bears: Ebron is tied for sixth among all tight ends in targets over the last four weeks and is coming off one of the best games of his career last week in Tampa Bay when he nabbed 10-of-11 targets for 94 yards. The one pass he didn’t catch was a drop, and it was his first muffed pass in six games. Ebron has been a lot better since the trade deadline. Chicago, though, has really stamped out opposing tight ends, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position. I’m not in the position to suddenly start trusting Ebron as a fantasy start in Week 15.
O.J. Howard vs. Falcons: Howard has played at least 70% of the snaps in five straight games and has apparently overtaken Cameron Brate as the Bucs’ preferred tight end. Howard has also gone for at least 50 yards in three of the last four games with two touchdowns in that span. But he’s seeing just four targets per game in those four contests and has shown a scary floor. The Falcons also play really tough tight end defense keyed by stud MLB Deion Jones, who is one of Pro Football Focus’ top cover linebackers. The Falcons have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position.
