Week 11 is here, and we’re really closing in on making our final push towards the fantasy postseason. Hopefully everyone is setting up a playoff run, but if you’ve been unfortunate this season in your leagues, there’s always DFS to keep the fantasy juices flowing. Week 11 is last large bye week of the season, so make sure to have all of your Browns, Patriots, Jets, Dolphins, 49ers and Bills out of your lineups. If anything, for such a large bye week, we have a lot of bottom-dwelling fantasy offenses off this week. Also, we get a reprieve on another week where I have to convince you or myself on why Jarvis Landry is a good option, but hey, at least we have John Brown back to fill that void.
For those that are new here, the goal of this article is to provide a top-down, statistical snapshot for each game each week, running down weekly point spreads, team totals, play calling splits, and statistical bullet points on the players and teams involved. Although we’re focusing strictly on PPR league scoring here as a baseline, there’s more than enough to spread around across formats and daily leagues. The reason we’re operating under a PPR umbrella is it allows us to cover a larger portion of the players involved in action weekly.
As the author, it’s imperative that I note that this is an expectations-based column over a linear start/sit forum. The labels for each subset of players for each game is simply the vehicle for those expectations and have a different context for each player. Players that are high performers week-to-week are held to different standards than a secondary option in an offense. Every player runs into down weeks, and we’re trying to identify those moments, even for the star players you’re going to ride through thick and thin moments that don’t tally many low points during the season. That said, we’re still embracing some of the elements that will go along with a start/sit column as a byproduct of those expectations. I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points here in conjunction with the Start/Sit column posted weekly by Nick Mensio, Pat Daugherty’s rankings in the Goal Line Stand, Evan Silva’s Matchup’s column, Ray Summerlin’s Waiver Wired and most importantly, your own information and thought process. Remember, you control your own team. If you are curious as to my personal weekly rankings, they can be found each and every week in the Season Pass section.
All lines are taken from VegasInsider on Tuesday nights
Packers @ Seahawks
| Green Bay | Rank | @ | Seattle | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 23.5 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 24.8 | 13 | Points/Gm | 24.3 | 15 |
| 24.0 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 21.3 | 9 |
| 65.7 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 62.7 | 20 |
| 63.0 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.8 | 5 |
| 34.0% | 30 | Rush% | 51.1% | 1 |
| 66.0% | 3 | Pass% | 48.9% | 32 |
| 42.7% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 39.6% | 15 |
| 57.3% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 60.4% | 18 |
- Seattle is 7-1 on Thursday Night games under Pete Carrol and have won five non-Week 1 Thursday games in a row.
- Green Bay is allowing 30.5 points per game on the road (28th) as opposed to 18.8 per game at home (sixth).
- The Packers are allowing 4.5 red zone possessions per game on the road, the most in the league.
- 43.7 percent of the offensive yardage gained by Seattle is through rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- Per Pro Football Focus, Russell Wilson has faced the highest rate of pressure per dropback this season (41.4 percent).
- Aaron Jones leads the league in rate of runs that result in a first down (39.7 percent) and rate of runs that gain 10 or more yards (24.7 percent) for all backs with 50 or more attempts on the season while ranking second in rate of runs to go for five or more yards (47.9 percent).
- Seattle allows 41.4 percent of the rushing attempts against them to gain five or more yards, the second-highest rate in the league.
- Jones leads the league in yards before contact per rushing attempt (3.66 yards).
- Seattle is allowing 160.3 rushing yards per game at home this season, ahead of only Oakland (170.8).
Trust (spike starting production)
- Aaron Jones: His usage has continued to grow each week since the bye as he’s tallied 14, 16 and 18 touches while rushing for 7.5 yards per carry. There’s certainly going to be recoil on that type efficiency and he is a road dog, but Seattle has allowed 166, 155 and 160 yards rushing in their three home games thus far.
- Davante Adams: He’s scored a touchdown in 7-of-9 games on the season despite one of the toughest individual schedules on the season.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Russell Wilson: He has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game but has still thrown the ball 26 times of fewer in six of his past seven games. The good news is that he’s starting run a bit with 41 and 92 yards on the ground over the past two weeks. The Packers Defense and secondary suffered multiple injuries this past Sunday and have a short time to turn around this week. As a home favorite and expecting Seattle to once again run the ball well, it leaves Wilson left to still do a lot on low volume.
- Aaron Rodgers: He’s finished higher than QB12 just three times so far on the season and all three of those (vs CHI, DET and SF) came with Green Bay chasing huge points on the scoreboard. Given Green Bay’s newfound ability to run the ball with a dynamic player and Seattle’s ability to stick with the ground game, it’s doubtful game script ever calls for Rodgers to pass like crazy. The highest a quarterback has finished against Seattle is QB11, but they have allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt over their past three games.
- Jimmy Graham: He has seen his target share drop to 10.8 percent over the past three weeks, but he’s still been effective with the marginal looks he’s getting, averaging 15.0 yards per catch over that span. Given the climate of the tight end position, you have to keep going back to him while Seattle just allowed two touchdowns to Rams tight ends a week ago.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He’s been a WR3 or better with double-digit points in five consecutive games while receiving a season-high 25 percent of the team targets last week.
- Tyler Lockett: If you have to play a Seattle wideout, Lockett is still the best bet. He had 23.1 percent of the team targets last week -his highest share since Week 5- and has found the end zone in 7-of-9 games so far on the season.
- Doug Baldwin: He’s actually been a WR3 in three of his past four games, but there has been no ceiling here to speak of so far since he’s yet to get a piece of the touchdown efficiency that Wilson has been spitting out. Eventually he’s going to find the end zone and the Packers have allowed top-20 scoring weeks to Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman out of the slot over their past two games.
- Seattle RBs: As a group, the numbers will be good as Seattle backs have averaged 121.9 rushing yards per game. Unfortunately, given Chris Carson’s expected return and Rashaad Penny throwing his name into the ring with 108 yards last week on eight touches, we are developing the potential for things to get messy in a short week. Mike Davis also has double-digit touches in five of his past six games and leads the backfield with 26 targets in the passing game on the season. Carson is still the best bet to make, but this could be a sum of parts backfield on Thursday that you have to nail down despite Pete Carroll suggesting that there won’t be enough touches to be spread around to all three backs.
Bust (underperformance)
- David Moore: If he scores, you’re fine, but he hasn’t had any a usable floor without a touchdown, finishing no higher than WR76 in a game where fails to find the end zone.
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Titans @ Colts
| Tennessee | Rank | @ | Indianapolis | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 25.5 | ||
| 18.7 | 28 | Points/Gm | 28.9 | 6 |
| 16.8 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 26.6 | 26 |
| 60.3 | 28 | Plays/Gm | 67.3 | 4 |
| 61.4 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.8 | 26 |
| 48.6% | 2 | Rush% | 37.0% | 22 |
| 51.4% | 31 | Pass% | 63.0% | 11 |
| 41.2% | 20 | Opp. Rush % | 41.6% | 22 |
| 58.8% | 13 | Opp. Pass % | 58.5% | 11 |
- The Colts have won all nine career games versus the Titans with Andrew Luck under center while going 6-1-2 against the spread in those games.
- Luck has thrown three or more touchdown passes in six straight games, the longest streak since Tom Brady went 10 consecutive games in 2007.
- The Colts have gone four straight games without allowing a sack, the longest streak since the 2014 Bengals and their longest streak as a franchise since the 2009 season.
- The average Titans game has featured 35.4 combined points scored, the fewest in the league.
- The Titans are allowing just 1.7 offensive touchdowns per game, the fewest in the league.
- Tennessee ranks first in the league in points allowed per play (.273) on the season.
- Tennessee allows just 2.6 red zone trips per game (tied for second in the league) and the Titans have allowed opponents to convert just 34.8 percent (9-of-24) of their red zone opportunities to touchdowns this season, the lowest rate in the league.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Andrew Luck: He’s just been too hot to fade solely based on the Titans potentially mucking up the game. Luck has been a QB1 in six straight games and outside of stomping out Tom Brady last week, the Titans have still allowed 20-plus fantasy points to Carson Wentz, Philip Rivers and Deshaun Watson on the season, the other fantasy options we’d consider in Luck’s tier of fantasy options.
- Marcus Mariota: He’s outscored his seasonal average entering the week in three straight games as he’s averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt over that span. The Colts are 31st in the league in completion rate allowed (72 percent) and have allowed a QB1 in four of their past six games, with the exceptions being Sam Darnold (18 points still) and Derek Anderson.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- T.Y. Hilton: His targets and yardage have gone up in each game since his return, but he still has just eight total catches over those three games. Still, opposing wideouts are scoring 61.3 percent of the points against the Titans (31st) and they have allowed a top-24 scoring receiver in five straight games.
- Corey Davis: He’s posted back-to-back useable games for the first time all season as the WR26 and the WR5. In those games, he’s amassed 37 percent of the team looks while Mariota is finally healthy and capable of providing a usable floor as the schedule gets lighter.
- Jack Doyle: We still really want to be able to combine Doyle and Ebron into one player, but Doyle is still dominating snaps and routes run in this offense that you have to swallow the down moments.
- Dion Lewis: He still out-touched Henry 22-11 last week in a controlled game and has now out-touched him 64-33 over the past three games. The Colts rank 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (92.1) to running backs and allow 7.9 receptions per game to opposing backfields, 31st in the league.
Bust (underperformance)
- Marlon Mack: He may end up being matchup dependent a bit as he ran into his toughest matchup since returning to the lineup last week and ended up as a RB3. He finds himself in a similar spot here against a Tennessee team that has allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season and has allowed 53 rushing yards per game over their past three games, the fewest in the league.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Eric Ebron: He ran just 12 pass routes last week and eventually we’re going to have to live with a dud with that type of low usage. But he showed why he’s still in play weekly at a depressed position because of the touchdown upside he possesses in an offense that utilizes their tight ends more than any team near the goal line. Colts tight ends now have been targeted a league-high 24 times in the red zone.
- Derrick Henry: He’s scored now in three straight games as this Tennessee offense is finding more scoring opportunities. The Colts rank 20th in rushing production allowed to backfields, but you still have to get a touchdown as Henry is still getting massively out-touched by Lewis and is averaging just 51.7 total yards per game over his past three with a high of 65 yards.
Buccaneers @ Giants
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | NY Giants | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread | -1 | ||
| 25.0 | Implied Total | 26.0 | ||
| 25.8 | 12 | Points/Gm | 19.7 | 26 |
| 32.3 | 32 | Points All./Gm | 25.3 | 20 |
| 68.3 | 2 | Plays/Gm | 61.2 | 24 |
| 62.0 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.4 | 20 |
| 35.0% | 28 | Rush% | 31.2% | 32 |
| 65.0% | 5 | Pass% | 68.8% | 1 |
| 39.3% | 11 | Opp. Rush % | 43.4% | 27 |
| 60.8% | 22 | Opp. Pass % | 56.6% | 6 |
- Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s four passing games of 400-passing yards this season have matched a record for most in a season, done by Peyton Manning in 2013 and Dan Marino in 1984.
- In Week 10, Fitzpatrick became just the eighth quarterback ever to throw for 400-yards in a game without a touchdown pass.
- Fitzpatrick has completed just 38.2 percent (13-of-34) passes in the red zone, the lowest rate for all passers with more than 10 attempts on the season.
- After catching all six of his deep targets (15-plus yards) downfield for 249 yards and three touchdowns through three games, DeSean Jackson has secured just 8-of-22 (36.4 percent) such targets for 245 yards and one touchdown since.
- Tampa Bay road games have averaged 70.0 total points per game, the most in the league.
- The Buccaneers have turned the ball over on 24 percent of their possessions, the highest rate in the league. They have forced a turnover on just 4.9 percent of their opponent’s possessions, 31st in the league.
- The Giants have scored a touchdown on just 5-of-46 (10.9 percent) possessions at home this season, 31st in the league.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Odell Beckham: He’s been a top-12 scorer in four of his past five games while running into a secondary that is allowing the most receptions per game (7.2) to opposing lead receivers.
- Saquon Barkley: He leads all running backs with eight games of reaching 100-yards from scrimmage while the Buccaneers have allowed 14 total touchdowns to opposing backs, tied for the second-most in the league.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Eli Manning: Say what you want about Manning, but he has come through with respectable lines in these spots as a streamer this season in games versus the 49ers (19.5 points), Falcons (20.7), Panthers (19.2) and Texans (19.8). The Buccaneers are still dead last in adjusted yards per attempt allowed (9.9 AY/A) and passing points allowed per game (22.2) to opposing passers.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: The passing yardage floor has been so high, passing for 400-plus yards in four of his five complete games. His touchdown output has been self-induced by his own play in he red zone, but he’s also adding 3.6 rushing points per game in his complete games. The Giants have allowed just three QB1 scoring weeks on the season, which keeps Fitzpatrick more in the higher-end QB2 with upside tier this week, but this is still a passing game to bet on giving you volume and high yardage regardless of the matchup.
- Evan Engram: He’s been a TE1 in just 2-of-6 games and is averaging just 5.2 targets per game, but his intersection of talent and matchup keep him in play at a weak position. Tampa Bay has allowed a league-high seven top-12 scoring tight ends and have allowed at least 50 receiving yards to eight different players at the position.
- Sterling Shepard: He’s coming off a season-low three targets, which is a reminder that you’re digging in on the third option in a lackluster offense overall, but the matchup keeps him in play once again as the Buccaneers rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to slot receivers on the season.
- DeSean Jackson: Despite not reaching 100-yards in a game since Week 4, he’s still been a WR3 or better in three of those five games and lead the team in targets a week ago. The Giants rank middle of the road (18th) in yards per target to opposing receivers, but Jackson holds the most stable expectations compared to his weekly ranking.
- O.J. Howard: His lack of tangible targets finally caught up to him last week in a two-target game, but his splash-play ability is a reason to still keep him as back-half TE1 against a Giants Defense that has allowed seven or more catches to three of the past four lead tight ends they have faced.
Bust (underperformance)
- Mike Evans: He’s now been a WR4 or lower in four of his past six games. The Giants have allowed just two receiving touchdowns to opposing lead receivers all season while Julio Jones is the only one to reach 100-yards versus them. Evans is capable of a big game on anyone, but he’s more susceptible to floor weeks that are outside of starting quality than his peers in weekly ranks.
- Chris Godwin: He was still last of all the Tampa receivers in routes last week (22), so it’s hard to stock his 7-103 line rolling over as something to bank on. He’s still a boom-or-bust option that is more touchdown dependent than not, while the Giants have allowed just five touchdowns to opposing receivers, tied with the Jaguars for the fewest in the league.
- Peyton Barber: His only two games higher than RB4-status have come along with a touchdown. The Giants have matched the Bucs in allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing running backs, so there’s room for Barber to fall into the end zone here, but he’s begun to concede snaps in the passing game with Jacquizz Rodgers running 20.6 pass routes per game over the past three weeks. Rodgers himself is not an option to really pursue as his eight catch game came when all of Evans, Howard, Jackson and Humphries combined for just 11 receptions.
Steelers @ Jaguars
| Pittsburgh | Rank | @ | Jacksonville | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | Spread | 5.5 | ||
| 26.5 | Implied Total | 21.0 | ||
| 31.0 | 4 | Points/Gm | 17.8 | 29 |
| 23.2 | 13 | Points All./Gm | 22.1 | 10 |
| 67.0 | 6 | Plays/Gm | 66.0 | 8 |
| 64.6 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.1 | 7 |
| 36.3% | 24 | Rush% | 35.9% | 26 |
| 63.7% | 9 | Pass% | 64.1% | 7 |
| 34.4% | 2 | Opp. Rush % | 46.6% | 29 |
| 65.6% | 31 | Opp. Pass % | 53.5% | 4 |
- Over their five-game winning streak, the Steelers are allowing just 4.5 yards per play to opposing offenses, the fewest in the league.
- The Jaguars have scored -41.75 points fewer than their implied team output this season, ahead of only Oakland (-50 points) on the season.
- Jacksonville averages 1.8 red zone possessions per game at home this season, 31st in the league.
- Leonard Fournette returned to play 52 percent of the Jacksonville offensive snaps and received a touch or target on 74.4 percent of his snaps, the highest rate for any running back in Week 10.
- Pittsburgh has converted 78.6 percent (22-of-28) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- The Jaguars have allowed three or more touchdown passes in back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 12-13 of the 2015 season.
- After securing 53.1 percent (35-of-66) of his targets through five games, Antonio Brown has secured 73.3 percent (22-of-30) over the past four games.
- Brown has caught a touchdown pass in seven consecutive games, the longest streak since Allen Hurns in 2015.
Trust (spike starting production)
- Antonio Brown: He’s been living a bit off his scoring streak as he’s received 7.8 targets per game over the past month, but the targets have been of better quality. Brown also lit up the Jaguars a year ago over two games, catching 17-of-30 targets for 289 yards and two scores.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline)
- Ben Roethlisberger: He’s been the QB5 and the QB12 in his past two early road games while the Jaguars have not been the boogeyman defense to avoid of late in the passing game, allowing a top-10 scorer in three of their past four games.
- James Conner: In and out of the game with injury and playing in a blowout on a short week, Conner played a season-low 24 snaps last week. This week he runs into a Jaguar defense that has been middle of the road -14th in rushing points allowed to backs- while Conner has had a stable floor given his receiving work and scoring opportunities.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: He has four or fewer receptions in four of his past six games on just 7.5 targets per game over that span. He still possesses scoring upside as he leads the team with 18 red zone targets. The Jaguars have allowed just five touchdowns to opposing wideouts this season, but four of those have come from the slot.
- Leonard Fournette: He walked right back into high-usage but needed 5-56-1 in the passing game to carry most of his line as he rushed for just 2.2 yards per carry against a much worse Colts run defense. The Jaguars lost center Brandon Linder for the season while the Steelers are first in total yards per game allowed to backfields (93.6), but Fournette’s volume and scoring upside is too strong to completely bury now that we know there’s no committee or concern for his health.
Bust (underperformance)
- Blake Bortles: He’s been a QB1 in four of his past six games, but he’s been a matchup play all season long. This week he draws a rough one against a Pittsburgh defense that has held five straight quarterbacks under their average output entering the game.
- Jaguar WRs: We’ve gotten this group down to Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief each week, but each have their downside in a week where Bortles should be limited. Westbrook has been a WR3 or better in four of the past six weeks but is averaging just 34.2 receiving yards per game over his past five weeks. Moncrief is the big-play option but has four or fewer catches in 6-of-9 games and has need scores of 67 and 80 yards to provide two of his three touchdowns on the season.
If You Must (Swing on a bench option/deep league play)
- Vance McDonald: It’s been all or nothing for McDonald as he has three top-8 scoring weeks with five other weeks as the TE19 or lower. He’s also had 15 percent of the team targets in just one game this season, which explains most of the variance. The Jaguars have allowed five receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends over their past two games, but also have allowed more than 36 yards receiving to just two tight ends on the season.
