After an 11-year gap, the Open Championship returns to Carnoustie in Scotland for the 147th edition of golf’s oldest major.
This was the scene of Padraig Harrington’s dramatic play-off victory over Sergio Garcia in 2007 and also where Paul Lawrie came from ten back on the final day to win in 1999.
In the majors this year’s it’s 2-0 to the Americans after the Masters triumph for Patrick Reed and Brooks Koepka’s successful U.S. Open defense.
Stretching further back, United States players have won six of the last seven majors since Henrik Stenson won his epic battle with Phil Mickelson in the 2016 Open Championship at Muirfield.
While 20-somethings have won the last five majors, the Open is still where veteran smarts count for plenty. Starting from 2008, seven of the ten Opens were won by players 35 or over.
Harrington was 35 when he won at Carnoustie in 2007 while Lawrie had passed his 30th birthday when lifting the Claret Jug in 1999.
Top five finishers in last 5 Opens
2017 (Royal Birkdale): 1 Jordan Spieth, 2 Matt Kuchar , 3 HaoTong Li, 4 Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Rory McIlroy
2016 (Royal Troon): 1 Henrik Stenson, 2 Phil Mickelson, T3 J.B. Holmes, 4 Steve Stricker, T5 Sergio Garcia, Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton
2015 (St. Andrews): 1 Zach Johnson, T2 Louis Oosthuizen, Marc Leishman, T5 Jason Day, Jordan Spieth
2014 (Hoylake): 1 Rory McIlroy, T2 Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler, 4 Jim Furyk, T5 Adam Scott, Marc Leishman
2013 (Muirfield): 1 Phil Mickelson, 2 Henrik Stenson, T3 Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter, Adam Scott
Winning Scores and Stats in most recent Open at Carnoustie
2007 Open Championship
1 Padraig Harrington (DD: 12, DA: 38, GIR: 14, Scr: 1, PA: 34, AA: 2)
2 Sergio Garcia (DD: 1, DA: 9, GIR: 4, Scr: 6, PA: 32, AA: 1)
3 Andres Romero (DD: 4, DA 63, GIR: 31, Scr: 16, PA: 5, AA: 10)
4= Ernie Els (DD: 22, DA: 64, GIR: 31, Scr: 3, PA: 13, AA: 17)
4= Richard Green (DD: 64, DA: 34, GIR: 9, Scr: 23, PA: 17, AA: 20)
Notes: There’s a few contradictions in there but Scrambling was certainly a key stat in 2007. It’s also worth noting that a previous Open champion (Ben Curtis) and a future one (Stewart Cink) also finished in the top eight on the leaderboard in 2007.
The Course – Carnoustie
Dubbed ‘Car-nasty’ in 1999 when Paul Lawrie, Jean Van de Velde and Justin Leonard contested the play-off after finishing at +6, the set-up that year was brutal and mistakes were made. The 2007 edition when Harrington and Garcia finished at -7 looks a more realistic guide. Due to a first-hole grandstand being erected, the course will actually measure 19 yards shorter than in 2007 although there’s still decent yardage at 7,402 yards. However, with no rain at the Angus course for the last two months, the fairways are running brutally fast so it will play much shorter. Phil Mickelson saw it last month and said he may not even carry driver. When did we last see an Open course like this with burnt out fairways after a heatwave? Go back to Hoylake in 2006 when the first six home were Tiger Woods, Chris DiMarco, Ernie Els, Sergio Garcia, Angel Cabrera and Jim Furyk. Unlike other Open courses, Carnoustie’s holes switch direction throughout while it will play as a par 71. There are 13 par 4s on the course, three par 3s (8, 13 and 16) and just two par 5s (6 and 14).
Weather
Although the sea isn’t visible from the course, the exposed layout means winds can still be strong and have a significant impact. The weather can change quickly but the current forecast suggests fairly steady temperatures around 70 degrees, a slight chance of rain each day and winds starting off as fairly gentle over the first two rounds but picking up a little on the weekend.
This preview will focus on the European challenge and those overseas stars available for the official European Tour fantasy game.
The Leading Contenders
T4 as an amateur in 1998, Rose’s second best Open finish as a pro came at Carnoustie in 2007. However, the fact that it was T12 shows that he hasn’t got the record in this event that many expect (T6 in 2015 is his best since 1998). More encouraging is Rose’s current form which has helped him up to No. 3 in the world. That includes a superb win at Colonial, T10 at Shinnecock and T9 on the links of Gullane in last week’s Scottish Open.
Adapting back to links golf after playing in America used to be a real problem for Rory but he won at Hoylake in 2014 and has finished T5 and T4 in his only two Open starts since (he missed 2015 through injury). Carnoustie has some happy memories too as it was there that, as a curly-haired amateur in 2007, that he posted T42 on his first ever major start to finish as Low Amateur. His 2018 form is hard to fathom. Brilliant winner at Bay Hill, R1 80 and MC at Shinnecock, only T28 in the Irish Open last time… which Rory will turn up?
One of the four rounds in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is played at Carnoustie and no-one has shot a lower aggregate score there over the last three years than Fleetwood, who is -16. That includes a course-record 63 last October. It will obviously play differently in the Open but Fleetwood loves the place and showed his growing status as a major player when runner-up in the U.S. Open. T27 in last year’s Open.
After his six-shot win and T4 in the last two Irish Opens, perhaps we should hold our bets on Rahm until 2019 when the Claret Jug will be contested at Royal Portrush. Rahm is in great form after three top fives in his last four starts and has all the skill and creativity required for links golf. After no top 20s in his first six majors, the Spaniard finally got up and running with fourth place at Augusta National earlier this year. A matter of time before he challenges for an Open.
A sensational winner of the Claret Jug at Muirfield in 2016, Stenson boasts a further trio of top three finishes in the Open (2008, 2010 and 2013). He added T11 when defending last year. Negatives? One of his two missed cuts came at Carnoustie in 2007 while his preferred prep of playing in the Scottish Open the week before was ruined this year after he pulled out with an elbow problem. T6 at the US Open on his last competitive start and also T5 at the Masters so he’s been strong in the majors this year.
It looked set to be Sergio’s Sliding Doors moment when he missed an eight-footer to win here in 2007 before losing to Padraig Harrington in a play-off. Had he holed it, perhaps four or five majors would have followed. But the miss led to years of heartache until he wrote his own script with a win in the 2017 Masters. Garcia really struggled earlier in the year but has hit back with T12 (BMW) and T9 (Open de France) in his last two starts and he’s racked up no less than ten top tens in the Open, one of those (T5) on the brown fairways of Hoylake in 2006.
Europe’s form player after two wins (BMW PGA Championship, Quicken Loans) and two seconds (Italian Open, John Deere Classic) in his last six starts. Also runner-up in last year’s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow and T20 and T25 in the first two majors of 2018, Molinari missed the cut on his Open debut at Carnoustie in 2007 but took T9 at Muirfield in 2013 and T15 at Hoylake in 2014.
Another of Europe’s form horses, Noren was third at Wentworth and then produced one of his now trademark final-round charges to win the Open de France on his last start. A winner on the links in the 2016 Scottish Open, the Swede was T6 in last year’s Open at Royal Birkdale and also T9 at Royal Lytham in 2012. Didn’t play at Carnoustie in 2007 but looks to have the meticulous nature that suits this course.
Casey was T27 at Carnoustie in 2007 and has since added T7 at Royal Birkdale in 2008, T3 at St. Andrews in 2010 and T11 at Birkdale again last year. Now up to 12th in the world rankings, Casey was runner-up at the Travelers on his last start and has finished T15 (Masters) and T16 (U.S. Open) in his two majors starts of 2018. The Open suits experienced players so, having turned 40 last year, perhaps it’s Casey’s time to win that elusive first major.
If you want someone with a bunch of good links form, Hatton leaps off the page. He’s won the last two editions of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (shooting 67 and 65 in his two laps of Carnoustie), was T9 in last week’s Scottish Open after second and fourth in two of the previous four editions and also T5 in the Open at Muirfield. His top ten at Gullane on Sunday followed T6 in the U.S. Open.
The Next Rung
The Low Amateur at Muirfield in 2013, Fitzpatrick was also T44 at Royal Birkdale last year. If his Open record hasn’t quite got going yet, he’s at least pieced together some useful recent form with T8 at Wentworth and T12 in the U.S. Open while T14 in the Scottish Open at Gullane was a nice links warm-up. A shorter hitter so the fast-running fairways should suit him.
It’s been an amazing few weeks for the Scotsman with second place in the Open de France followed by a dramatic victory in the Irish Open. He was also a contender for three days in the Scottish Open at Gullane last week when T8 with a lap to go but did a closing 75 which left him T49 hint at a player running out of gas? He’s played every event since the U.S. Open (T12) so it’s a decent theory. Open record: MC-30-MC.
The feisty Englishman has a second, a third and a T9 in the Open and was also T27 at Carnoustie in 2007 and T14 at Royal Birkdale last year. It’s a style of golf he loves and it showcases an excellent short game. T30 at Gullane last week was actually his worst finish since April so Poults has been playing some fine golf since winning at Houston prior to the Masters.
Weekend scores of 64-66 in last week’s Scottish Open hoisted the-hitting Belgian into tied sixth, giving him his best finish since T5 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC in January. He’s a man on a mission with the Ryder Cup coming up but driver is rather taken out of his hands this week which doesn’t look ideal. T30 and T44 in his two Open starts.
Westwood has had three previous starts at Carnoustie, finishing fourth in the 1996 Scottish Open there, T18 in the 1999 Open and T35 in the 2007 Open. He also played it when winning the 2003 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. All five of the Englishman’s Open top tens were recorded in Scotland and there were some good signs at Gullane before he had to settle for T32.
RCB had a golden two weeks last summer when winning the Scottish Open at Dundonald Links before adding T4 in the Open at Royal Birkdale. That’s his only top ten in 20 majors but perhaps a bigger concern is a sudden loss of form which has resulted in missed cuts at the Open de France, Irish Open and Scottish Open. At least he signed off with a 67 at Gullane so perhaps he’s found something.
Since he played alongside Tiger Woods and finished T9 in the 2012 Open at Royal Lytham, Olesen has finished MC-64-MC-62 in four subsequent starts. Still, the feeling remains that he has it in him to do something big in this event (strong wind player) and in his last five events he has a win at the Italian Open, second in the BMW International Open (R4 61) and T6 in the Irish Open (1st Scrambling). He also shot a 68 at Carnoustie on the way to winning the 2015 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.
Grew up playing links golf and took T9 at Hoylake in 2014 although he’s missed his last three Open cuts. Has rather struggled at Carnoustie recently (75-72-74) when playing the Alfred Dunhill Links although he did fire a 64 there in 2013. A WGC winner and a U.S. Open runner-up, Lowry has the class to contend and T16 in France and T28 in the Irish Open could be nice markers.
Always one that springs to mind in an Open Championship due to his T5 as an amateur at Royal Birkdale in 2008 and T3 at Turnberry 12 months later. Also T23 (2014) and T14 (2017) and he boasts strong form in the Alfred Dunhill. Wood went out at halfway at Gullane but prior to that was T14 in the Irish Open and runner-up at the Open de France.
Sleeper Picks
Winner in Qatar (like 1999 Open champ Paul Lawrie), the Englishman comes in off second place in the Scottish Open. Also top four at Gullane in 2015 and played well in his only Open start in 2015 before fading to T49.
T6 (Royal Birkdale) and T12 (Muirfield) in the last two Opens, Southgate has plenty of other good links form too. T5 in recent Open de France.
Flopped at Gullane last week but he booked his Open spot with T6 at the Irish Open and has a bunch of good links form, including T12 at Muirfield two years ago.
The winner at Carnoustie in 2007 and he’s also won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship twice with Carnoustie in the rotation. Not much current form from the double Open champ though.
Seven top tens on the European Tour since February, including third on the links of Ballyliffin in the Irish Open. This is his Open debut.
China Open winner had a great chance to score a quick follow-up at Gullane last week but faded to T19. T14 in the Irish Open and Swedes have a strong record in the Open.
Continues to be underestimated. Two wins this year (Indian Open in March and BMW International Open last month). Can he now spring a surprise on his Open debut?
This year’s surprise vet? T18 in the 1999 Open at Carnoustie and won the British Seniors Open there in 2010 (also T9 in 2016). Added another Champions Tour win in May.
Other Overseas stars available for the official ET fantasy game
Started like a house on fire at the Scottish Open but had to settle for T23 despite four rounds in the 60s. Hit plenty of greens but didn’t scramble well which was unusual. Despite the obvious differences, there are some good correlations between Masters winners and the Open (Faldo won three of each and Seve’s five were also split exclusively between those two) and Reed has T12 and T20 in two of his four Opens so far. Also T4 at the U.S. Open so he’s thrived in the majors this year.
Made Open and major championship history last year when becoming the first player to shoot a 62. That third round at Royal Birkdale helped him take T6 and he’s made the cut in all seven Open appearances. Top 25 in the year’s first two majors and with five top sixes in his last 13, he’s a real force at this level. First start since Shinnecock.
Withdrew from the Scottish Open with a neck injury which immediately raises a flag. If fit, Oosthuizen warrants serious attention though as he won the Open by seven at St. Andrews in 2010, was runner-up there in 2015 and also took T2 in the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow last August. Form of 5-13-16 before Gullane WD.
He must still replay Royal Birkdale in his mind and wonder how he didn’t win last year’s Open. Kuchar warmed up for that with a top four in the Scottish Open but he won’t carry the same confidence this time after MC at Gullane. Hasn’t had a top ten since April’s Houston Open so something isn’t quite clicking even though conditions this week should suit him.
A seemingly surprise winner of last year’s Tour Championship, Schauffele continues to shine in the big events – T18 WGC-Mexico, second place PLAYERS Championship, T6 U.S. Open. Also T5 in last year’s U.S. Open, the following month he played in his first Open Championship at Royal Birkdale and finished a very creditable T20 so don’t underestimate him.
A superb winner of the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year and made a memorable impact in last year’s Open when bursting through the field with a closing 63 to finish solo third. He’s since shown his majors pedigree with T32 on his Masters debut and T16 in last month’s U.S. Open. T23 at the Scottish Open last week.
An absolute monster on the links in the last two years with a second, two fourths and a sixth across two editions of the Irish and Scottish Opens. Whether Carnoustie will punish the odd wayward drive is open to debate but the Kiwi is oozing confidence and is a legitimate pick after his stellar links play over the last fortnight when runner-up at Ballyliffin and T6 at Gullane.
The South African came from seemingly nowhere to win last week’s Scottish Open with a remarkable final-round 60 and book an 11th hour spot at Carnoustie. Three wins now on the European Tour so the University of Texas grad is a serious young talent. Made cut at Royal Birkdale last year.
A consistent Open performer with T7 in 2014 and four other top 20s in his eight starts. Got hot in May with second place at Sawgrass and T9 at Quail Hollow but has fired some curiously big numbers since, missing cuts at Memorial and the U.S. Open. South Africans tend to do well on firm, fast courses so that’s in his favour.
Another of the newer wave of South African talents, Frittelli has warmed up for Carnoustie with T12 at the Open de France, T14 at the Irish Open and T23 in the Scottish Open (R4 66). Second for scrambling at Gullane, he’s a grinder and should take to Carnoustie after MC at Royal Birkdale on his Open debut last year.
Who’s On The Team?
Last week’s virtually impossible-to-predict Scottish Open results add to the belief that links courses can throw up surprises.
But this is a major and I want a good smattering of proven Open performers on my team.
It makes sense to blend in some youth too as Tommy Fleetwood and Jon Rahm look future stars in this event and it could start here.
I’ll reveal my full six-man team for the official European Tour fantasy game in Tuesday’s Playing The Tips feature.
One To Swerve
This is tough but I think Russell Knox may be out of gas after his busy schedule.
