Maaaaaan, I love the Blues.
Give me a screaming guitar, some Stevie Ray Vaughan, 12-bar blues, hot licks and catchy riffs and my feet start tapping and my heart gets a-thumpin’. A Blues shuffle in a minor pentatonic and …
Oh wait ... you mean, the St. Louis Blues. I’ll have to start over.
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The St. Louis Blues had to start over. A dismal start to the season, terrible first half, and all of a sudden, their back in the playoff picture, winning regularly and serving up a tantalizing under the radar performance.
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Goaltender Jordan Binnington, drafted 88th overall in the third round in 2011, has come in replacement doing an admirable job, winning seven of the last eight starts. Jake Allen has lost the crease for the time being, but the Blues have very favorable defensive metrics that place them in a unique spot as they vie for a playoff spot.
When I went over the Western Conference wild card race, the Blues were one of the teams climbing their way back into the playoff picture.
A key finding at the time in that piece:
We will address the second part of this quote in further detail below, but before we do, this is their game defensively.
The Blues have incredibly turned a corner over the last 20 or so games and we can see why they’re comfortably holding on to a wild card spot, with games at hand – entering Tuesday night’s game against the New Jersey Devils. Sustaining this momentum can even vault them into third place in the Central Division and overtake the Dallas Stars. The rest of Minnesota (without the services of Mikko Koivu), Dallas, and with outside chances Vancouver, Colorado (they’ve fallen out of contention at a meteoric rate) and Chicago (back in the picture again) can fight for the Wild Card spots.
The Blues had won their last six entering play Tuesday night, and 11 of their last 14 games, courtesy of an 8-3 drubbing of the New Jersey Devils – their seventh straight win – indicative of the explosive offense that’s emerged to score five times at 5v4 during those 14 games and 39 at 5v5.
But the Blues, to borrow a music analogy wasted 10 of the 12 bars of their 12-bar blues, trying to hold on to mediocrity and then reset their season, just like a turnaround in the last two bars of the 12-bar blues. They’ve established themselves among the hottest teams in the NHL, having underperformed their until improvements began to manifest just prior to Christmas. It’s like they are now just meeting the narrative of expectations prior to the season.
The table below divides the season into the two segments at 5v5 and on the power play. The xGFD metric is the differential calculated between goals scored (observed) minus expected goals – xGAD is the same formula with goals against. The expectation is that goals outnumber expected goals for offense and that goals against fell under the expected goals against.
St. Louis had struggled to generate sustained scoring chance pressure this season, but there’s a clear distinction between scoring chances and high danger scoring chances at 5v5. Better goaltending has improved their fortunes, with a vast difference between the .899 save percentage and .934. Binnington has been a God-send and perfect internal solution to a difficult position – that would have made for an expensive acquisition in the open market.
The expected goals differential is actually dropping, however, both expected goals and goals scored has improved post-Christmas. The Blues have discovered and improved their shot generation, which in turn has increased the expected goals. Vladimir Tarasenko has 10 goals and 17 points in the third quarter (13-10-7-17) igniting the Blues offense as a result.
It took a turn of the calendar into 2019 to finally see their goals against dropping below expected goals against, at least consistently – enter Jordan Binnington. In addition, the differential has been declining – in synch with the turnaround defensively.
High danger shots have increased by a substantial margin, as medium range shots have stabilized. This is the trend appearing at 5v5. Clearly, the Blues have been doing a better job setting up and getting to high danger shots and increasing the propensity to score more goals.
The increase in high danger shooting isn’t limited to 5v5 either. This is mirrored in their special teams.
SHOT METRICS
The focus has been skewed somewhat to even strength – since that’s where the majority of the game is played – but special teams are essential and there’s an example here. Going back to the table splitting the season, at 5v4, the Blues continue to struggle somewhat. They’re generating more high danger chances, but less overall scoring chances. The disparity in shooting percentage is indicative of the futility of the recent Blues powerplay, even if they are getting better high danger looks and shots.
But the shot metrics show some difference, establishing incrementally better results after Christmas – yet goals haven’t come any easier. Shooting rates (shot metrics per 60 minutes) as illustrated by the chart below splitting the two segments shows a steady increase, noting improved shot generation.
Individual shot rates by distance/danger zones show a drop in low danger shooting, and significant increase in high danger shots after medium danger stabilized. St. Louis isn’t aimlessly throwing pucks at the net and hoping for rebounds/tips and loose pucks, they are pushing the play and getting better scoring looks.
Finishing Thoughts
Improvements in every area have made the Blues dangerous, and every bit the contender in the Western Conference that they were supposed to be entering 2018-19. Jordan Binnington has stabilized goaltending, while they have improved dramatically in expected goals and shooting metrics.
With the NHL trade deadline about a dozen days away, they may tinker to make some nominal upgrades, but where they were once intended to move away from players like Alex Pietrangelo, now they may be looking to augment a talented lineup.
Leading down the stretch, the Blues can be a distinct dark horse come playoff time.
