Recently the NHL has shown how fast a player can go from being a regular producer to a marginal player, especially for those on the north side of the age of 30. The league catches up to aging players even quicker than in the past, regardless of their skills at peak career. The drop can be severe.
Flat-footed at times, and fragility aren’t the only indicators of a production slow down for the 33 year old Jason Spezza. Already having missed seven games with a lower body injury split in two and five game layoffs, but healthy since mid-November. He would be needed to dress every game the rest of the way to match last season’s 75 games played.
The former Senators 1st round draft pick in 2001 has 11 points in 19 games (4-7-11), spent split between Radek Faksa and the Patrick Sharp so far the most in 2015-16. Lately he’s been relegated to bottom-six linemates, (the latest iteration consisting of Lauri Korpikoski and Cody Eakin) there are immediate and long-term concerns. Hitting 30 goals is likely out of the question and he may be closer to the 17 goals in ’14-15 than 33 from ’15-16.
Partnered with Patrick Sharp (11-1-1-2) after the former Blackhawk returned from 14-game absence due to a concussion (until missing Saturday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche and Tuesday against the Flames), the pair haven’t recorded a point together. Spezza played a season low 13:58 aside from the eight minutes in a game prior to the five-game injury absence.
The potential production slowdown was somewhat apparent as 2015-16 came to a close. The graph shows a rolling 10-game average of Spezza’s 5v5 on-ice sh% from last season along with on-ice scoring chances for relative to when off the ice. The downslope in scoring chances differential following the November peak is dramatic, even with the late season uptick. But the downslope doesn’t really encapsulate Spezza’s ’15-16 accurately. The high on-ice shooting percentage offers some context.
The decline in SCF rel is of note because he blew up shortly after the November peak, while playing with Mattias Janmark (who is out long term with a knee injury) and KHL bound Valeri Nichushkin.
From the McKeen’s Hockey yearbook player profile:
‘followed up his final pointless skid of three or more games in mid-December with a point-per-game pace in 20-games (20-7-13-20, six power play points) just prior to a six-game upper body injury in early February .. scored 12 goals in 12 games after returning from injury, half (6) at 5v4 making up two-thirds of the nine total on a career high 25.71 iSh% .. earning points on 59.5% of on-ice 5v4 goals, constitutes a second straight decline from 84% high of ’13-14 but closer to career averages .. played with Mattias Janmark (478 mins, 57.9 GF% & 56.6 CF%) and Valeri Nichushkin mostly over the second half (65.4 GF% & 53.4 CF% in 422 minutes,) .. recorded points on team high 76.7% of on-ice 5v5 goals, with the shortest average duration between shot attempts (1:15) and shots (2:23)’
The trends denoted a decline yet the former Senator was scoring at an unsustainable pace. An illusory effect that may play into the future of his time in Dallas.
Spezza led the Stars forwards in duration between shot attempts at 5v5 against in ‘15-16 while leading the Stars in duration between individual shots on goal. Both charts below show the distinction of the Stars one year, contrasted with the average over three years. (Jamie Benn led the Stars in 5v5 time on ice distinguished as such by the leader lines.)
Spezza fired more often at 5v5 over last season than he did over his three year average by almost 30 seconds. Considering the limited amount of time players spend with the puck on their sticks, that 30 gap is significant.
Moreover, controlling the puck often stabilizes the effect of reducing shots and chances against – or swing of play going back the other way into shot attempts against – barring a firewagon brand of high event hockey leading to chances both ways, to which the coach’s leash may tighten to ensure chances against are limited.
In ‘15-16, with the emergence of Radek Faksa during the 2016 postseason, it looked like there could be a favorable pairing with the young Czech to the benefit of both players, especially with the injury to Janmark prior to season’s onset. Tinkering with the line combos to pair up Spezza/Sharp didn’t produce the desired outcomes and it seems that the only shuffle will bump Spezza down the lineup at even strength. Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are glued to the hip, and aside from 5v4 play, or if coaches are trying to load up one line for an offensive push, the likelihood of Spezza moving up to the top line is minimal.
Special teams will have a place for the still talented pivot. At 5v4 during ’15-16, he currently ranks fourth among forwards in time on ice, with five helpers, losing out ice time to players the likes of Patrick Eaves (3rd) and only ahead of Devin Shore. He’s earned a point on 55.6% of on-ice goals scored, just slightly behind Jamie Benn (57.1%). He ranks 48th among forwards with a minimum of 50 minutes at 5v4.
When doing predictions for the McKeen’s Yearbook, Spezza landed with the following prediction (73-26-30-56). So far, the 73 games may still be at risk, and the 26 goals would require circumstances similar to the second half blowup in ’15-16 to achieve. Topping 50 points may be the only high water mark, closer to 20 goals than 26.
If the right circumstances arise that allows for you to move Spezza, now is the time to do it, before the NHL catches up fully and shuts down the 33-year old.
