Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his early top 16 for the NCAA Tournament, ranking the top four seeds in each region with previews and analysis.
NO. 1 SEEDS:
ALABAMA (SOUTH): The Tide have the win over Houston and get the No. 1 overall seed for me based on a few factors. There is no denying Bama has been dominant in its 22-4 season, recording better three-point numbers (35.2%) and defensive efficiency (4th) than last season (30.9% 3PT, 92nd in Def Eff). This Crimson Tide team is improved and a threat to win it all. Recently, some players from Alabama found themselves in some off the court, so monitor the Tide and their situation in case there are any suspensions.
HOUSTON (MIDWEST): The Cougars have arguably been the best team in the country all season posting a 24-2 record with losses to Alabama and Temple. While the AAC doesn’t quite stack up to the SEC or Big 12, Houston has done everything they are supposed to on both ends of the floor. The Cougars have won seven-straight and 16 of the past 17 en route to a 25-2 record and top 10 ranks in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
KANSAS (EAST): The Jayhawks are one of four teams to rank top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (Houston, Alabama, UConn) and have the No. 1 overall strength of schedule in the country. With six impressive wins since their 0-3 streak, Kansas remains one of the top five teams in the country and deserving of a No. 1 seed.
UCLA (WEST): The Bruins have been a top-five team in the country all season long as one of six teams that rank both top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency. UCLA also ranks top 26 in offensive and defensive turnover percentages and is currently one of the best offensive rebounding teams (21st) in the country. The Bruins lost back-to-back games twice this season and are currently riding a six-game winning streak, plus a 20-2 mark in the last 22 games.
NO. 2 SEEDS:
TEXAS (SOUTH): The Longhorns are one of six teams that have ranked top 25 in Barttorvik’s model over the last month. Texas has overcome so much with the coaching change, transfers and incoming freshman to get to this point. The Big 12 is the best conference in basketball and with wins over Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Creighton and Gonzaga -- Texas is a top 8 team in the country and close to being a No. 1 seed.
ARIZONA (MIDWEST): The Wildcats were my preseason pick and they have continued to rank near the top of the AP Top 25 all season. Arizona is the 6th-ranked team since the start of February and are one of the best offensively inclined teams. The Wildcats are 5th in offensive effective field goal percentage (56.2%), 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 12th in two-point percentage (56.6%) and 35th in three-point percentage (37.2%). I love this offense and with height (22nd), experience (61st) and coaching, Arizona is a serious threat.
PURDUE (EAST): The Boilermakers are a No. 1 seed most places, but not here. Purdue is far too dependent on Zach Edey and it’s shown lately with a 2-3 record over the last five games. Purdue was 21-1 entering February and is now 24-4 near the end of the month. Since the start of February, Purdue is the 15th-ranked team and 22nd since the 4th of February. The Boilermakers have lost three-straight road games, something to watch moving forward.
BAYLOR (WEST): The Bears are on a tear, winning 11 of their last 13 games after tons of people wrote them off after an 0-3 streak earlier in the year. The Bears have the No. 1 offensive efficiency in the country (122.0) and ranks top 50 in offensive rebounding percentage (36.1%) and free-throw percentage (75.6%). With a 11-3 record over the last 14 games in the toughest conference in the country, Baylor is a No. 2 seed right now.
NO. 3 SEEDS:
VIRGINIA (SOUTH): With 11 wins in the past 12 games and a bottom 10 tempo on defense and overall, the Cavaliers have controlled games like they control their destiny in the ACC. The Cavaliers once again have a top 50 offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency and elite turnover numbers in conference play. Virginia has won the last three games by one possession or in OT, so this seeding could change by next Sunday let alone by Selection Sunday, but the Cavs do have wins over Baylor, Illinois and Michigan in non-conference play.
TENNESSEE (MIDWEST): The Vols are ranked as the No. 5 team in Kenpom with the No. 1 overall defensive efficiency, so they should be a No. 2 seed, but I don’t see it. Tennessee lost five of the past seven games with two of those losses by one point each. The Vols earned a win over Alabama at home, which goes a long way in the committees eyes and is the main reason why they are a No. 3 seed, but after a loss at Texas A&M and games versus South Carolina, Arkansas, Auburn and the SEC Tournament remaining, we will see if they can climb to a No. 1 seed or drop to a No. 5 seed.
TCU (EAST): The Horned Frogs have lost five out of the last six games trending in the wrong direction. TCU is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country (29.1%, 353rd), but one of the best at defending the triple (30.6%, 26th), forcing turnovers (22.5%, 23rd) and make 54.1% of their two-pointers in Big 12 play (1st). TCU does so much well, but what they are bad at will be the downfall of this team. This team could drop back to a No. 4/5 seed or worse pending what happens in the Big 12 Tournament.
KANSAS STATE (WEST): More Big 12 love here as Kansas State grabs a No. 3 seed for me. The Wildcats have a nasty 1-2 punch of Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson but have suffered some tough losses lately. Kansas State is 4-5 in the past nine games and lost five-straight road games. The Wildcats are 15-1 at home with the No. 5 defense in the country but 3-6 in true road games ranking 125th in defensive efficiency. It will be an interesting to see how this team responds on a neutral court (0-3).
NO. 4 SEEDS:
MIAMI (SOUTH): The Hurricanes picked up where they left off last season with one of the top 50 ranked offenses, turnover percentages and free-throw percentage. The big difference for Miami is the arrival of Norchad Omier (transfer from Arkansas State). Miami went from 329th and 268th in offensive and defensive rebounding percentages last season to 60th and 244th with Omier. Miami owns similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers from last year.
INDIANA (MIDWEST): The Hoosiers have won nine of the previous 12 games with three road losses to Maryland, Michigan State and Minnesota. Indiana went on similar 0-3 losing streaks like Baylor and Kansas. The Hoosiers have been much better at home than on the road, which is concerning as Illinois or Xavier are the best road wins on the resume. Trayce Jackson-Davis has been awesome and with most of their minutes back (60.7%) and three veteran starters, the Hoosiers are a top 16 team right now.
MARQUETTE (EAST): The Golden Eagles are en route to being the Big East Regular Season Champion. Marquette owns one of the best offenses in the country coming in as the No. 3 adjusted offensive efficiency overall and No. 1 on the road, along with top 25 turnover percentages on both offense and defense. The best stat though? Marquette owns the 11th-quickest tempo on offense and the 11th-slowest tempo on defense, which has caused serious issues for opponents. This team is live for a deep run with Shaka Smart on the sidelines.
SAINT MARY’S (WEST): Some would say where is Gonzaga? But if you beat the big dog, you are the big dog. Saint Mary’s beat Gonzaga in their only meeting of the season thus far, so they get the nod over the Bulldogs here. Saint Mary’s is the No. 6 rated team per Barttorvik since Jan. 1 and ranks 25th in offense efficiency and 9th in defensive efficiency. The Gaels are 15-1 in the last 16 games and 19-2 in the previous 21 contests.
BROKEN DOWN BY REGIONS:
SOUTH: ALABAMA (1), TEXAS (2), VIRGINA (3), MIAMI (4)
MIDWEST: HOUSTON (1), ARIZONA (2), TENNESSEE (3), INDIANA (4)
EAST: KANSAS (1), PURDUE (2), TCU (3), MARQUETTE (4)
WEST: UCLA (1), BAYLOR (2), KANSAS STATE (3), SAINT MARY’S (4)
TEAMS THAT JUST MISSED THE CUT:
CREIGHTON, GONZAGA, IOWA STATE, UCONN, XAVIER
