Being a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament is a double-edged sword. It is not a guaranteed ticket to the Final Four. In fact, since the men’s tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, two or more top seeds have reached the Final Four just 19 times (51.4%). In 16 of those 37 years since the tournament expanded a single top seed has reached the Final Four (43.2%). Heavy is the head that wears the crown of expectations indeed. To bring it full circle, however, more often than not the champ ends up being a top seed as 24 of the 37 champions (64.9%) since 1985 have been No. 1 seeds. Recent history bodes even better for the top seeds as 12 of the past 15 titles have been claimed by No. 1 seeds.
All that said, the 2023 NCAA Tournament appears to be more wide-open than any in recent memory. Alabama (+190) with freshman phenom Brandon Miller is the No. 1 seed in the Southeast Region and the top overall seed in the tournament. Purdue (+250) with Naismith front-runner Zach Edey is seeded first in the East Region. Bill Self and the Kansas Jayhawks (+325) will begin their pursuit of back-to-back national championships as the top seed in the West Region. The Houston Cougars (+145) are the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region as they look to reach the Final Four and ultimately claim their first national title.
How many times have all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four in the same season? It may sound amazing, but it has happened just once. In 2008, the Kansas Jayhawks, the Memphis Tigers, the Bruins of UCLA, and the North Carolina Tar Heels each reached the Final Four.
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) and the Bet the EDGE crew broke down the NCAA Tournament from a variety of angles. They began at the top of each region with a look at each of the four No. 1 seeds and their prospects for playing at NRG Stadium in Houston on April 1.
How to Bet the No. 1 Seeds in the NCAA Tournament
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes Alabama and their path to Houston.
“I’m really excited about this Alabama team. Obviously, SEC Champs. They’ve got Brandon Miller who I think is the best scorer in the entire country…I love the path for them.”
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) likes the draw for the Crimson Tide as well.
“I think Alabama got a pretty cherry draw here. There’s not a lot of other elite schools that you think can threaten for a title.”
In the East, Dinsick is on board the fade train when it comes to Purdue.
“Purdue is way too reliant on him (Edey) for the entirety of their offense…they are very, very slowly paced and they have a very, very tough time creating turnovers.”
“They have arguably the best player in the country in Zach Edey,” said Dalzell. “…but I think Purdue could be upset in the second round.”
(Read More: Searching for this year’s Cinderella)
Dinsick identified the West as the deepest region this season.
“The West is the region of death…You have four of the top seven in terms of current form with Kansas, UCONN, Gonzaga, and UCLA potentially making up one of the more spectacular Sweet 16 group of four.”
Dalzell acknowledged Kansas’ path to the Final Four is most difficult.
“They’ve been given the worst bracket to try and make a run. Teams like VCU, St. Mary’s, UCONN, TCU, Gonzaga, all these teams can give Kansas a run. I am going to fade the Jayhawks and their chance for a repeat.”
Last year Houston’s Marcus Sasser was injured for the NCAA Tournament. Dinsick believes if Sasser’s latest injury (groin) keeps him out, the Cougars will be sent home to Houston without a ticket to the Final Four.
Dalzell likes the Auburn Tigers as a potential threat to Houston if Sasser is on the shelf.
“I love the second-round match-up for the Auburn Tigers against Houston…and potentially upset the Cougars.”
Dinsick differed in his assessment of the Cougars.
“I make Houston among the 1 seeds the most likely to get through to the Final Four…if you are going to get concerned, the issues for them are tempo. If they get into a faster-paced game…they could find conditions a little difficult.”
How far do you have each No. 1 seed going in this season’s NCAA Tournament? As mentioned, its likely one wins the National Championship. Should you be inclined to bet on a No. 1 seed to cut down the nets on April 3, here are their odds:
Houston Cougars (+550)
Alabama Crimson Tide (+650)
Kansas Jayhawks (+800)
Purdue Boilermakers (+1000)
You can find more Brackets and Betting videos on the NBC Sports YouTube page as well as on Bet the EDGE weekdays wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat.
