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It had to end this way didn’t it? Championship week proved just as crazy as the rest of the season, with huge upsets, games that went to the wire and the fall of one more undefeated team.
When the dust settled, one blue blood proved their status, and two teams will be joining the College Football Playoff for the first time, including the first non-power five team. That team also happens to be the last remaining undefeated team for the 2021 season.
It’s been a wild ride, and the best part of the season is still left.
Upset Alert
#9 Baylor vs. #5 Oklahoma State (Line: Oklahoma State -6.5, O/U 45.5)
Result: Baylor wins 21-16
Championship Saturday kicked off with possibly the most interesting game of the week because of how close it was. In fact, it was the only game that was decided by less than a touchdown. While at the end of the day the game probably didn’t make a huge difference with how everything else shook out, it was a fun start to the day.
Oklahoma State refused to go away (or Baylor refused to put them away, dealer’s choice) despite Spencer Sanders throwing four interceptions. Every time you thought the Cowboys were dead in the water, Baylor would fumble, or miss a kick, or have an ill-advised fourth down attempt. At the end of the game, Oklahoma State had a chance to win it despite trailing basically the entire game. They had 1st and goal at the Baylor 2, which quickly turned into 4th and goal at the Baylor 1. Dezmon Jackson took the final handoff of the game and came up inches short of the pylon on a desperation dive. When Jackson bounced the run to the left it really looked like he had it, but it simply wasn’t meant to be.
Unfortunately, the game wasn’t particularly close for the betting public, as even with a Jackson TD, the 83% of the handle that took the Cowboys still wouldn’t have won. Baylor seized control of the game fairly early on, taking a 21-3 lead with 6:15 left in the second quarter, and it would have been pretty tough for OSU to come back and win by a touchdown after that. The two Sanders interceptions in the third quarter definitely didn’t help with that either. At the same time, OSU’s money line was also a major favorite, with 75% of the total bets and 73% of the handle taking the Cowboys straight up, and that Jackson TD would’ve made all the difference there.
The points total went slightly better for the public at least. While 69% of tickets went with the over, 73% of the money wisely took the under in a sloppy, mistake-ridden game by both squads.
Utah State at #19 San Diego State (Line: SDSU -6, O/U 49.5)
Result: Utah State wins 46-13
Yeesh, this was not a good look for the Aztecs, who despite being the ranked team and at home were summarily destroyed in basically every phase of the game. Even their vaunted special teams with punter/kicker Matt Araiza had numerous miscues, including two blocked punts and on the other side muffed a punt return of their own. Utah State’s Logan Bonner carved up the supposedly elite SDSU defense, although he did get a lot of help from short fields because of the aforementioned miscues and brutal fumbles. The Aztec offense on the other hand, which has been a struggle all year, didn’t magically get better for this championship game. The passing game was wholly ineffective (the touchdown came in garbage time with the game out of hand) and the run game’s two biggest runs also came with the game all but over.
Similar to Oklahoma State, SDSU was a big favorite in basically every way. In fact, they had the most lopsided action of the week. A healthy majority (76% of bets, 83% of handle) took SDSU to cover spread, and an even higher 86% of tickets and 82% of the money took SDSU straight up. That dream died very quickly as the Aggies completely dominated from the second quarter on. Not even the points total was safe. With the Azetc’s defense supposed to be one of the best in the nation, most bettors (61% of total bets, 83% of the handle) hammered the under. Utah State then proceeded to nearly hit the points total by themselves. Nearly every dime bettors spent on this game was lost and had Vegas laughing all the way to the bank. Tough times.
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The Patrick Beverly “He Trick Y’all” Award
There were quite a few major blowouts in Championship Week, which really shed some light on programs that were quite overrated or honestly probably shouldn’t have been there.
#1 Georgia vs. #3 Alabama (Georgia -6.5, O/U 49)
Result: Alabama wins 41-24
Dread from it, run from it, Alabama still arrives to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Just one week after setting the AP record for consecutive weeks as the unanimous #1, Alabama showed up to remind Georgia and the world who the big brother still is. Georgia dominated everyone they played besides their first game against Clemson, especially with their defense which was drawing “best of all-time” level hype at certain points in the season. The accolades were well-deserved, as they allowed less than seven points per game, and only allowed seven total offensive touchdowns heading into the SEC Championship. The most points they had allowed in a game up until that point was 17 to Tennessee. Queue Alabama shattering all of those fantastic numbers. They dropped 24 points in the second quarter alone, and scored four offensive touchdowns on their way to 41 total points. It was a brutal wake up call for the Bulldogs, and really called into question the great season they had built to that point. While they were dominant on another level, the level of offenses they played were fairly pedestrian. The best offense they played was Tennessee, who was ranked 17th. That was solid, but the rest of the offenses they played were in the 50’s, 70’s and over 100’s. Georgia dominating in their matchup contributed to that of course, but that’s just 1 of 12 games for these teams. The only time Georgia really faced a top tier offense was against Alabama (8th) and they got summarily destroyed. Bryce Young was magnificent, and looked Heisman worthy. He was mobile, had incredible deep ball accuracy and his freelancing ability was just breathtaking. Alabama firmly put themselves on the map as the CFP favorite, while Georgia still gets in but a lot of questions have been asked that I’m not sure they have answers for.
Bettors, just like the AP Poll and the rest of the nation were fooled and put their faith (and dollar bills) on Georgia. It wasn’t as lopsided as other games this week, but it was firmly Bulldog favored with 69% of total bets and 66% of total money taking Georgia with the spread, and a further 69% of bets and 76% of the handle taking Georgia on the moneyline. Similar to SDSU, Georgia’s elite defense was supposed to keep the score low, and it didn’t help that Alabama’s last game had them score 10 points in regulation. For those reasons, 64% of tickets and 74% of the handle took the under which, this time like Utah State, Alabama nearly hit on their own. So far it’s been a really tough week for bettors, and it doesn’t get too much better from here.
#2 Michigan vs. #13 Iowa (Line: Michigan -12, O/U 43.5)
Result: Michigan wins 42-3
Another bullet point on why divisions within conferences are silly, as the Big Ten West was hammered by the Big Ten East for the eighth straight time in the CFP Era. In that time the point differential of those games is an ugly 283-113. Point is, it hasn’t even been remotely close, and this game was the same old story. Iowa was an undeserving participant in the championship game, basically falling backwards into the spot because no one else wanted it (looking at you, Wisconsin). Iowa’s offense was shameful, and Michigan took full advantage, nearly shutting the Hawkeyes out in the blowout victory that really wasn’t close at any point in the game. I’m not sure if anyone really rated the Hawkeyes to be fair, but heck they were in the Championship game and really should have put up a better fight than this.
The betting action wasn’t as lopsided as it probably should have been. The line moving from Michigan -10.5 to -12 by kickoff may have had a hand in that though. Just 54% of bets and 69% of the handle had the Wolverines covering, but a much more representative 82% of bets and 84% of money had the Michigan moneyline. In addition, the majority also hit on the over/under, with 72% of tickets as well as 83% of the handle hoping the two teams would combine to go over the low 43.5 total. They almost didn’t. You’d think with one team handling 97% of the points needed it would be an easy over, but it almost can’t be overstated how bad Iowa’s offense is. They kicked a 22-yard field goal in the first quarter and were shut out after, and bettors needed a late, needless Michigan touchdown with 2:09 left in the game to barely scrape by. Betting over in Big Ten matchups that don’t feature Ohio State is a risky proposition, but it worked out this time, if only just.
Second Half Heroes
#21 Houston at #4 Cincinnati (Line: Cincinnati -10.5, O/U 52.5)
Result: Cincinnati wins 35-20
For the 62% of bettors (and 82% of the money) that took Houston and the points, the first half went about as well as it could have. Houston dominated time of possession and plays run, and they were down just one. Clayton Tune was having a great game, the Cougar defense held in the second quarter after getting kind of run over in the first. Then the third quarter began and the game was all of a sudden over. The Bearcats scored three touchdowns in the span of five minutes. They easily scored on their opening possession, picked Tune off on Houston’s first play of the half, scored again, forced and three-and-out and Jerome Ford put the dagger in with his second long rushing TD of the game. One minute Houston was feeling good about their chances, and then out of nowhere Cincinnati ended the game.
While those that bet on the spread had to take that on the chin, the 85% of bettors and 86% of the handle that took Cincinnati straight up were probably breathing a sigh of relief after the smash-and-grab third quarter. Point total action was split, and it was a pretty close call. The over saw 68% of the bets, while 54% of the money went with the under. Tune hit Jake Herslow on a slant with seven minutes left in the game to make the score 35-20, just cresting the 52.5 total, which had been an even closer 54 at opening.
Split Decisions
Appalachian State at #24 Louisiana (Line: Louisiana +2.5, O/U 52)
Result: Louisiana wins 24-16
Oddly enough despite being the ranked team and being at home, Louisiana were the underdogs for the Sun Belt Championship game. When weird lines show up, split betting action often follows, and this game was no exception. All three standard ways you can take action on this game were split, as no one really had any idea how this game would go. It was also the smallest spread of the week, which makes sense. For the spread, 52% of the bets took the Ragin’ Cajuns, while 56% of the money went with the Mountaineers. For the moneyline, things swapped, with 51% of bets taking App State while a relatively huge 71% of the money took Louisiana to win straight up. Finally, 62% of bets took over which ended up being a pretty huge miss, while 73% of the handle took the under. Overall, the handle took the right direction two out of three times, which in general is how these things go.
The Cajuns had control of the game for the most part but Appalachian State refused to go away. They pulled within one score with 5:21 left in the final quarter, but a backbreaking five minute drive by Louisiana left the Mountaineers no time to complete the comeback.
Close Call
#15 Pittsburgh vs. #16 Wake Forest (Line: Pittsburgh -3.5, O/U 71.5)
Result: Pittsburgh wins 45-21
We close out with the final Championship game, and it was a heartbreaker for the majority of bettors that took over. The close part wasn’t the spread, which Pittsburgh covered with ease, but the points total, which was fully on track to go over before a Wake Forest collapse stopped it short. The first quarter was the offensive explosion that everyone expected and the O/U of 71.5 predicted, and after the first quarter the over looked like a foregone conclusion. The two teams combined for 35 points, and Pitt added another 10 by the end of the half. No one could have seen Wake Forest getting shut out for the rest of the game after scoring 21 in the first, but that’s exactly what happened. The Demon Deacons would have needed just one more touchdown for the over to hit, which 61% of total bets and 62% of the total handle hoped they would. Honestly though, Sam Hartmann and the rest of the Wake Forest offense never really got that close after scoring on their first three possessions. The whole rest of the game they played in their own territory for the most part. The closest they got was Pitt 36, not even field goal territory really, and by the end of that drive they were at the Pitt 46. Hartmann got sacked five times, and three interceptions on three straight drives between the third and fourth quarters put the nail in their coffin as well as the coffin of the over.
The rest of the action was fairly nondescript. A slight majority took Pitt to cover the spread, and a slightly higher majority took Pitt moneyline for some easy money.
That’s it for championship weekend. Six entertaining games that all had their twists and turns and all had their interesting bits of betting action. It’s sad to say that the season is almost over now, but boy has it been a good one, one of the best all time. The playoff has two new faces, and we’ll see if anyone can dethrone the kings of college football, Alabama. Despite the Crimson Tide rolling Georgia up with no issues, it really does feel like this year is as wide open as any in the past. Only time will tell if that’s the truth, but right now it’s hard to be anything but excited for the closing weeks of the NCAA season.
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