How fluid is the top of this year’s NFL Draft class? Consider this: I woke up Tuesday intending to dive into Bovada’s NFL Draft prop bets for this column. Those odds had been up when I went to sleep Monday evening, but by the time I opened my browser this morning every individual prospect prop outside of Christian McCaffrey‘s had been yanked off the board.
This was very curious development indeed.
I shot off an email to a Bovada spokesman asking about the missing players. He responded that the props would “probably be re-opened” but that it was hard to say because the “odds are very volatile due to ... ever-changing news/info/speculation about the draft.”
This brought to mind an obvious question: Just how does Bovada determine NFL Draft prop odds? Do they speak to NFL sources? Have they built some sort of proprietary computer algorithm that predicts draft slots based on collegiate playing time, stats, measurables, historical comps and thousands of other unknowable variables? Or do they make predictions like the rest of us, by analyzing depth charts, reading media reports and monitoring Twitter?
For that answer, I turned to Bovada.lv Sportsbook Manager Kevin Bradley, who responded with an answer that surprised me: Bovada doesn’t base its NFL Draft odds on proprietary information that the public isn’t privy to. “We look at what everyone else is looking at,” Bradley responded via email. “Mock drafts, Twitter, etc. We do not have any ‘inside sources.’”
So there you have it. The smartest guys in the room don’t have access, in this case at least, to information that we don’t. Perhaps for that reason, prospect props that had been up on Monday night were down by Tuesday morning: With these props, it was plausible for plugged-in bettors (or bettors with plugged-in sources) to have access to better information than the sportsbooks did.
I asked Bradley which prop side had seen the strongest action. His answer? Deshaun Watson’s “under” of 25.5. That answer wasn’t a surprise. Watson’s Bovada odds had drawn some guffaws amongst the online NFL Draft crowd. Bradley wrote that “info and mock drafts change so much” that his book’s odds swing “up and down ... very quickly.”
And so they have, swinging so wildly that numerous individual props are no longer being offered by Bovada as of this writing. So, in the spirit of the sport we love, I’ve called an audible. We’ll be using Bookmaker.eu’s odds as of Tuesday night. Sorry Bovada!
One last note before we begin: In the prospect props, “Over” means “below.” In other words, in the case of Leonard Fournette, an “Over” bet on No. 4.5 would be wagering that he falls to No. 5 or below.
Over (-135)/Under (+105) 4.5
The pick: Pass.
This is a perfect line. Stay away for me.
We know that Fournette isn’t going No. 1 to Cleveland or No. 3 to Chicago, but he’s in play for the 49ers at No. 2 and the Jaguars at No. 4. I continue to not totally buy San Francisco’s interest, but those reports refuse to die. Either the 49ers are actually considering this, or, more likely, they’re trying to convince somebody to trade up into their slot.
Maybe someone wants to beat Jacksonville to the Fournette punch? Fournette to the Jaguars at No. 4 remains a popular mock draft destination and his most likely landing spot all things considered. There’s a very real possibility that Fournette drops out of the top-5, but, either way, I don’t fall far enough on the degenerate spectrum to drop coin on what I perceive to be coin flip.
(Anymore).
Over (-186)/Under (+152) 8.5
The pick: Under
Bovada’s number of 9.5 was far juicier, because that gave you the out of Cincinnati at No. 9. But Bookmarker’s line does give you the added benefit of offering 1.5-to-1 on your money if you think Carolina will take McCaffrey at No. 8.
Well, I do.
If you wanted to buy some insurance here, you could make a smaller wager on the Fournette over. One of those runners may fall past the Panthers at No. 8, but both won’t.
Mitch Trubisky
Over (+175)/Under (-235) 9.5
The pick: Under
Despite what we’ve heard, Trubisky isn’t likely to go No. 1. But he’s in play anywhere below that beginning with the 49ers at No. 2. Walter Football’s Charlie Campbell reported earlier this month that Cleveland had engaged the New York Jets in trade talks revolving around the No. 6 pick with an eye on Trubisky. In his Tuesday mock draft, MMQB’s Peter King predicted that exact same hypothetical trade, with Cleveland taking Trubisky at No. 6.
The 9.5 line cleverly cuts off before Buffalo’s pick at No. 10. I’m willing to bet Trubisky is off the board by then, but paying -235 juice on the proposition doesn’t make this a very enticing investment.
Over (-103)/Under (-125) 12.5
The pick: Under
Remember how I told you that Bovada opened Watson’s number at 25.5 before pulling it off the board? Bookmaker offers a sharper Watson line. Even at a number that has been chopped in two, I want the under.
We’ve heard a lot of smoke in the past week about Watson going No. 3 overall to the Bears. But even if he doesn’t, he’s a candidate for the Jets at No. 6, the Bills at No. 10 and the Browns at No. 12. As with the Trubisky line, this one has a clever cut-off point, stopping just before the Cardinals’ pick at No. 13.
I do have reservations about the bet, this one in particular: I asked a plugged-in NFL Draft analyst for his opinion on Bovada’s Watson prop (at the 25.5 number). I was stunned when he responded by predicting the over (and further predicting that only two quarterbacks will go in Round 1). I’m on the other side of both issues, but, well, I can’t say that I wasn’t warned.
Over (-125)/Under (-105) 18.5
The pick: Over
Rotoworld’s Josh Norris doesn’t have John Ross in Round 1 in his most recent mock draft and Peter King has Ross going No. 32 to Arizona after a hypothetic trade. King wrote: “Had to get Ross into the first round.” He mine as well have wrote: “Hard to get Ross into the first round.”
Ross’ best bets for cashing this ticket are either going to Baltimore at No. 16 or Tennessee at No. 18. Going over scenarios, it’s more likely than not that he finds his way past Tennessee’s second first-rounder at No. 18.
How many QB’s will be selected in the 1st Round?
Over (+169)/Under (-203) 3.5
The pick: Under
I don’t think that only two quarterbacks will go on Day 1, but I’d be surprised if four did.
This remains a polarizing topic. I asked another NFL Draft analyst for his opinion on this subject, and he predicted that four quarterbacks will go in Round 1, with DeShone Kizer being lucky number four. You’ve probably heard rumors that Davis Webb or Josh Dobbs could sneak into Round 1. If either do, I quit. (Note to the editor: This text isn’t legally binding).
How many RB’s will be selected in the 1st Round?
Over (+108)/Under (-134) 3
The pick: Pass
No wiggle room here. Is there a chance that Dalvin Cook falls out of Round 1? Sure. Is there a chance that Cook along with, say, Joe Mixon (or Alvin Kamara) is taken on Day 1? Sure.
We’re just not going to go there.
How many WR’s will be selected in the 1st Round?
Over (+230)/Under (-320) 3.5
The pick: Pass
I think that three receivers—and three receivers only—will go in Round 1, but at a vig of greater than 3-to-1 against, the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze. To me, there’s a better chance that only two receivers go in Round 1 as opposed to four receivers going in Round 1. And to that point, remember what Josh Norris and Peter King wrote about Ross. If you can find a book that offers the number at 2.5 with big juice on the under, it may be worth rolling the dice.
