For the first time in 61 years the Sugar Bowl features two SEC schools as the Georgia Bulldogs and the Ole Miss Rebels meet in the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff.
This is the second meeting of the season between these conference rivals. The Bulldogs rallied late for a 43-35 win on October 18 in Athens. Georgia trailed by as much as 35-26 in the fourth quarter. Gunner Stockton threw four touchdown passes to pace the Bulldogs’ attack.
Lets take a closer look inside the numbers and a few of the players on both sides of the ball for each school.
Game Details and How to Watch Georgia vs. Ole Miss
- Date: Thursday, January 1, 2025
- Time: 8:00PM Eastern
- Site: Caesars Superdome
- City: New Orleans, LA
- TV/Streaming: ESPN
Game Odds for Georgia vs. Ole Miss
The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Georgia Bulldogs (-245), Ole Miss (+200)
- Spread: Georgia -6.5 (-115)
- Total: 55.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Georgia Bulldogs
Head Coach: Kirby Smart
2025 Record: 12-1
Offense Ranking: 14
Defense Ranking: 6
Strength of Schedule: 30
Georgia powered through another playoff-caliber run at 12–1 (7–1 SEC East), finishing 5th nationally in SP+ despite second-order wins (10.3) indicating some narrow-margin fortune along the way. Kirby Smart’s team blended a 14th-ranked offense with a 6th-ranked defense, winning more with efficiency, red-zone dominance, and field position than pure explosiveness. The regular-season stumble against Alabama was the lone blemish, but Georgia flipped the script when it mattered most by dismantling the Tide 28–7 in the SEC Championship Game, a résumé-defining win against an opponent ranked 13th in SP+. Over the full season, the Bulldogs posted a +16.0 average scoring margin (14th nationally) and consistently throttled opponents’ scoring efficiency, even when the offense sputtered in spurts. In classic Smart fashion, Georgia didn’t need to be flashy to be elite—this was a disciplined, depth-driven team that again proved it can survive the SEC grind and peak when the stakes are highest.
The Georgia Bulldogs Offense
Georgia’s offense finished 14th nationally in SP+, leaning far more on efficiency and situational dominance than raw explosiveness. The Bulldogs were especially lethal on standard downs, posting a 6th-ranked success rate, and once drives reached scoring territory they cashed in at an elite level with a 2nd-ranked red-zone touchdown rate. While the big-play element lagged behind—ranking 100th or worse nationally in most explosiveness metrics—Georgia compensated with a steady passing game that checked in 17th in passing success rate and 10th in completion percentage. Protection was rarely an issue, as the offensive line allowed pressure on just 2.1% of dropbacks (25th nationally), keeping the offense on schedule even in tighter games. Overall, this unit wasn’t built to overwhelm opponents vertically, but its consistency, discipline, and finishing ability made it a reliable engine for winning close games.
Georgia Player to Watch on Offense: QB Gunner Stockton
Quarterback Gunner Stockton delivered a highly efficient season, starting all 13 games and completing 70.7% of his passes with 23 touchdowns against just five interceptions. He consistently kept Georgia on schedule, posting a 49.0% success rate, an 8.5 ANY/A, and an elite 85.8 Total QBR, all while keeping his sack rate to a manageable 4.3%. Stockton’s vertical efficiency stood out as well, averaging 10.7 yards per completion and 6.8 yards per dropback in an offense built around situational precision. As a runner, he added a valuable second dimension with 494 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, converting 33.0% of his carries into first downs. Overall, Stockton’s blend of accuracy, decision-making, and functional mobility gave Georgia steady quarterback play that maximized efficiency and allowed them to dictate games.
The Georgia Bulldogs Defense
Georgia’s defense finished 6th nationally in SP+, once again setting the tone with efficiency, leverage, and situational control rather than sheer havoc. The Bulldogs were dominant against the run, ranking 9th in rushing success rate allowed and 2nd in yards per rush allowed, forcing opponents into longer, more uncomfortable down-and-distance situations. On passing downs, Georgia limited efficiency well enough to hold offenses to a 25th-ranked passing-downs success rate, even though the sack production lagged behind at 116th in sacks per dropback. The real separation came when opponents crossed into their territory, where Georgia allowed just 4.16 points per scoring opportunity (60th nationally) and consistently tightened near the goal line with strong tackle efficiency (12th in tackle success rate). In classic Kirby Smart fashion, this was a defense built to suffocate over four quarters, sacrificing flash plays for reliability and forcing opponents to earn every inch.
Georgia Player to Watch on Defense: CB Ellis Robinson IV
Cornerback Ellis Robinson IV delivered one of Georgia’s most effective coverage campaigns, appearing in all 13 games and flashing impact far beyond his modest tackle totals. He finished with just 15 tackles, but his 9 havoc plays and four interceptions (with four pass breakups) underscore how disruptive he was when quarterbacks tested him. In coverage, Robinson allowed completions on only 41.7% of targets across 240 coverage snaps, yielding a stingy 37.3 defensive QBR that ranked among the best marks in the secondary. He paired ball skills with discipline, forcing incompletions on 20.8% of targets while limiting explosive damage despite being challenged vertically. True to the Kirby Smart blueprint he played sticky, opportunistic football and consistently tilted possessions in Georgia’s favor.
Ole Miss
Head Coach: Pete Golding (took over for Lane Kiffin)
2025 Record: 12-1
Offense Ranking: 8
Defense Ranking: 17
Strength of Schedule: 50
Ole Miss ripped through the 2025 regular season at 11–1 (7–1 SEC West), finishing 7th nationally in SP+ with second-order wins (10.0) showing a profile that was excellent but not quite as dominant as the record suggests. Lane Kiffin’s group leaned into balance, pairing an 8th-ranked offense with a 17th-ranked defense, and consistently winning the efficiency battle even when explosiveness ebbed week to week. The Rebels’ lone loss came on the road at Georgia, but they countered that blemish with résumé-level wins over Tulane, LSU and Oklahoma. Offensively, Ole Miss was ruthless when staying on schedule—ranking 15th in success rate and 9th in points per drive—while the defense did enough situationally to keep opponents from flipping games late. The Rebels’ season has been defined by pace, pressure, and precision, with Ole Miss firmly entrenched as a playoff-caliber team that could stress even the most complete rosters in the country.
The Ole Miss Rebels Offense
Ole Miss fielded one of the nation’s most complete attacks, finishing 8th nationally in offensive SP+ and consistently dictating games with tempo and efficiency. The Rebels ranked 15th in overall success rate and 11th in down-set conversion rate, staying on schedule while operating at one of the fastest paces in the country (12th in seconds per play). Explosiveness was a true calling card, as Ole Miss finished 15th in 20-plus-yard play rate, 4th in completions of 20+ yards, and 7th in yards per dropback, stretching defenses vertically without abandoning balance. Protection held up well, with pressure allowed on just 2.0% of dropbacks (21st nationally), allowing the passing game to thrive on high-value throws. Ole Miss can stress defenses across the entire field and forces opponents to defend every blade of grass.
Ole Miss Player to Watch on Offense: QB Trinidad Chambliss
Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss delivered a high-end campaign, finishing with an 84.6 overall PFF grade while consistently elevating the Ole Miss offense in high-leverage situations. As a passer, he posted an 80.1 passing grade, throwing for 3,295 yards with a 66.6% completion rate, 19 touchdowns, and just three interceptions across 362 attempts. Chambliss combined accuracy and aggression, producing 9.1 yards per attempt on an 8.6-yard average depth of target, while keeping turnover-worthy plays in check (1.9% TWP rate). He added value beyond the pocket with a 74.8 rushing grade and finished the year with 13 sacks taken despite operating in a downfield-oriented system. Overall, Chambliss’ blend of vertical efficiency, ball security, and maneuverability made him a steady, high-ceiling quarterback capable of stressing defenses at every level.
The Ole Miss Rebels Defense
Ole Miss’ defense finished 17th nationally in SP+, playing a complementary role that emphasized situational control over outright dominance. The Rebels were strongest against the pass, ranking 19th in passing success rate allowed and 29th in yards per dropback allowed, limiting efficiency even when opponents tried to match their tempo. While the run defense was more vulnerable—checking in 75th in rushing success rate allowed—Ole Miss mitigated damage by tightening in scoring territory and holding opponents to 33rd in points per scoring opportunity. The pass rush generated high-end disruption with a 7th-ranked pressure rate, even if the sack conversion (52nd in sacks per pressure) didn’t always finish drives. Overall, this was a defense built to survive high-possession games, bend without breaking, and give the offense enough extra chances to separate late.
Ole Miss Player to Watch on Defense: DT Will Echoles
Defensive tackle Will Echoles played a key rotational role for Ole Miss in 2025, logging 621 total snaps with heavy usage against both the run (275 run-defense snaps) and as a blitzer (342 pass-rush snaps). He graded out as a strong overall contributor with a 79.7 PFF defensive grade, highlighted by an excellent 83.6 run-defense grade that underscored his physicality and gap discipline. As a pass rusher, Echoles consistently created disruption, posting a 67.3 pass-rush grade with 32 total pressures, including five sacks and 26 hurries. Overall, Echoles brings energy, toughness, and pressure while giving Ole Miss a dependable interior presence who can impact opposing gameplans.
Georgia and Ole Miss team stats, betting trends
- Georgia is 6-7 ATS this season
- Ole Miss is 8-5 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in 5 of Georgia’s 13 games this season (5-8)
- The OVER has cashed in 6 of Ole Miss’ 13 games this season (6-7)
For the first time in 61 years 2 SEC teams are playing in the Sugar Bowl
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Trinidad Chambliss OVER 247.5 Passing Yards
Since taking over for opening game starter Austin Simmons, Chambliss has ripped his way through the Rebels’ SEC schedule. The reigning SEC newcomer of the year and Second Team All-SEC signal caller has thrown for at least 250 passing yards in every game this season except for Ole Miss’ 30-14 victory over South Carolina where they smoked the Gamecocks for 258 yards on the ground in a ball-control oriented contest. With Chambliss having thrown for 263 yards in his first matchup against Georgia, I’m taking the plunge on Chambliss’ Over 247.5 Passing Yards line.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best Bets our model is projecting for the College Football Playoff between Georgia and Ole Miss
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play ATS on the Georgia Bulldogs -6.5.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 55.5.
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