Penn State (6-6) and Clemson (7-5) wrap up disappointing seasons Saturday when they line up against each other in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.
The game is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle due to numerous opt outs from both teams as well as coaching staff changes. It won’t help the offenses that the forecast is calling for below average temperatures.
Penn State recently fired head coach James Franklin and hired Matt Campbell, who will attend the game, with interim coach Terry Smith leading the team in the bowl. Clemson defensive coordinator Tom Allen will call the game from the booth as he closes out his first season in the role for the Tigers.
Penn State will be without its entire starting offensive line due to the aforementioned opt-outs, which should impact their running game unless Clemson’s replacements for their opt-outs on defense can’t get a push on the line.
Lets dive into the bowl game and the teams involved and see where the numbers lead us.
Game Details and How to watch Penn State vs. Clemson
- Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
- Time: 12:00PM Eastern
- Site: Yankee Stadium
- City: Bronx, NY
- TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for Penn State vs. Clemson
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Clemson Tigers (-162), Penn State Nittany Lions (+136)
- Spread: Clemson -3 (-110)
- Total: 48.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Clemson Tigers
Head Coach: Dabo Swinney
2025 Record: 7-5
Offense Ranking: 57
Defense Ranking: 25
Strength of Schedule: 73
Clemson’s 2025 campaign settled into a frustrating middle ground, finishing 7–5 (4–4 ACC) with the 32nd-ranked SP+ profile that closely mirrored its second-order wins (7.8), suggesting the record was largely earned. The Tigers were pulled in opposite directions by a 57th-ranked offense and a sturdier 25th-ranked defense, leading to week-to-week volatility and a string of narrow outcomes. Early losses to LSU, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse exposed offensive inconsistency, while midseason blowouts of North Carolina and Boston College briefly hinted at a higher ceiling. Clemson ultimately stabilized down the stretch, winning its final four games and closing the regular season with road victories over Louisville and South Carolina. In the end, this was a transitional year under Dabo Swinney - competitive and credible defensively but still searching for the offensive identity needed to rejoin the ACC’s elite tier.
The Clemson Tigers Offense
Clemson’s offense finished 57th nationally in SP+, a reflection of a unit that too often struggled to stay on schedule despite occasional flashes of explosiveness. The Tigers ranked just 53rd in overall success rate and 78th in three-and-out rate, consistently putting pressure on themselves with negative plays and stalled drives. The passing game displayed middling efficiency, checking in at 53rd in passing success rate and 60th in adjusted net yards per attempt, and lacked consistency on money downs, finishing 75th on passing downs success rate and 115th in overall third-down conversion rate. The run game offered limited relief, ranking 65th in rushing success rate and 97th in yards per rush, rarely generating easy yardage or controlling game flow. Overall, this was an offense caught between systems and solutions, capable of occasional spikes but far too uneven to complement Clemson’s defense on a weekly basis.
The Clemson Tigers Defense
Clemson’s defense was the steadier half of the roster, finishing 25th nationally in defensive SP+ and routinely keeping the Tigers competitive even when the offense sputtered. The unit excelled on money downs, ranking 8th in overall third-down success rate allowed, and consistently forced negative plays with a 9th-ranked rate of plays gaining zero or fewer yards allowed. Against the pass, Clemson held opponents to a 24th-ranked passing success rate and stifled big plays, finishing 10th in completions of 20+ yards allowed. The run defense was more uneven—checking in 50th in rushing success rate allowed—but strong tackling (6th in tackle success rate) and solid red-zone work (12th in points per scoring opportunity allowed) helped prevent games from getting away. Overall, this was a disciplined, havoc-capable defense that did its job most weeks, even if it lacked the dominance to fully carry their inconsistent offense.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Head Coach: Terry Smith (Interim)
2025 Record: 6-6
Offense Ranking: 20
Defense Ranking: 33
Strength of Schedule: 8
Penn State’s 2025 season was a case study in how thin the margin can be in the Big Ten, finishing 6–6 (3–6) despite an underlying profile that graded out better than the record. The Nittany Lions checked in 18th nationally in SP+, with second-order wins (7.7) suggesting they were closer to an eight-win team than a bowl-bubble survivor. Departed HC James Franklin’s group held up reasonably well with a 20th-ranked SP+ offense, but repeated breakdowns in close games flipped multiple high-leverage outcomes the wrong way. The defense was more uneven, landing 33rd in SP+ and struggling to close late despite flashes of pressure and solid situational play. Ultimately, Penn State looked like a respectable team buried by a tough B10 schedule - competitive almost every week but undone by narrow losses and a handful of missed finishing moments that defined the season.
The Penn State Nittany Lions Offense
Penn State’s offense finished 20th nationally in SP+, built around efficiency, protection, and a steady ability to stay ahead of the chains even when explosiveness lagged. The Nittany Lions ranked 18th in overall success rate and 15th in rushing success rate, pairing a reliable ground game with one of the nation’s cleanest pockets thanks to an offensive line that finished 7th in pressure rate allowed and 1st in penalties per game. While the passing game was solid rather than spectacular due to starting QB Drew Allar’s season-ending injury, checking in 20th in passing success rate and 42nd in adjusted net yards per attempt - it avoided catastrophic mistakes and kept the offense functional in most game scripts. Penn State consistently finished drives at a commendable level, ranking 32nd in points per scoring opportunity and 34th in red-zone touchdown rate, though too many possessions stalled out in pivotal moments. In the end, this was a fundamentally sound offense that did enough to win more often than the record shows, but lacked the explosive edge needed to flip a season full of razor-thin losses.
The Penn State Nittany Lions Defense
Penn State’s defense finished 33rd nationally in SP+, flashing disruption and pass-rush potency, but struggling to maintain consistency over full games. The Nittany Lions generated pressure at an elite clip, ranking 11th in pressure rate and 27th in sacks per dropback, yet that aggression didn’t always translate into stops. Against the run, Penn State was vulnerable, finishing 85th in rushing success rate allowed and giving up too many efficient early-down gains. The back end held up marginally better situationally, limiting explosive passes to a 54th-ranked rate of 20-plus-yard completions allowed while holding opponents to 48th in passing success rate. Ultimately, this was a defense that could stress quarterbacks but too often bent at the wrong moments, contributing to a season defined by close losses rather than decisive stops.
Clemson and Penn State: Team Stats and Betting Trends
- Clemson is on a 4-game winning streak
- Clemson is 5-7 ATS this season
- Penn State is 8-4 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in 8 of Penn State’s 12 games (8-4)
- The OVER has cashed in just 3 of Clemson’s 12 games this season (3-7-2)
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Kaytron Allen UNDER 12.5 Receiving Yards
While Penn State RB Kaytron Allen took control of the PSU backfield as the season progressed, tallying over 1,300 yards and 15 touchdowns, he was used only sparingly in the pass game. Fellow RB Nicholas Singleton was the primary receiving option, but has opted out already, with interim HC Terry Wilson also hinting that the starters who do suit up will likely see reduced snaps from their traditional workload. Kaytron received at least 19 carries in his last six games, so if anyone on the team has earned a “soft-out” reduced workload, it’s him. With Allen having failed to clear his 12.5 Receiving Yards line in every single game this season, and the aforementioned soft-out looming, I’m taking Kaytron to go Under 12.5 Receiving Yards.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best Bets our model is projecting for the College Football Playoff between Penn State and Clemson
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Clemson Tigers -3.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total UNDER 48.5.
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