No. 25 Michigan looks to remain within eyeshot of the top of the Big Ten Saturday night when it travels to East Lansing to take on the Spartans of Michigan State on NBC and Peacock.
The Wolverines have won the last three matchups against their in-state rival and are heavy favorites to retain the Paul Bunyan Trophy and extend the streak to four.
Lets dive into the matchup and take a look at each school on both sides of the ball along with a handful of impact players.
Game Details and How to watch No. 25 Michigan at Michigan State
- Date: Saturday, October 25, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM Eastern
- Site: Spartan Stadium
- City: East Lansing, MI
- TV/Streaming: NBC
Game Odds for No. 25 Michigan at Michigan State
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Michigan (-575), Michigan State Spartans (+425)
- Spread: Michigan -14 (-112)
- Total: 47.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Michigan Wolverines
Head Coach: Sherrone Moore
2025 Record: 5-2
Offense Ranking: 45
Defense Ranking: 9
Strength of Schedule: 22
Michigan sits at 5–2 (3–1 Big Ten) with an SP+ ranking of 21st, powered by a Top 10 defense (9th in Def. SP+) and an improving offense under first-year coordinator Chip Lindsey. The Wolverines’ defense remains the team’s backbone, allowing just 4.74 yards per play and ranking 23rd nationally, while creating havoc on nearly 20% of snaps behind an aggressive front seven. Offensively, Michigan averages a respectable 6.62 yards per play (24th) and 2.51 points per drive (51st), leaning on a punishing run game (6.2 YPC, 48.4% success rate) and a formidable OL that is allowing a solid 1.8% pressure rate (23rd). Despite trouble finishing drives (68th points per scoring opp/69th RZ TD rate) and a modest 45th-ranked offense, Sherrone Moore’s squad remains fundamentally efficient, turnover-sound (+9 margin, 3rd nationally), and still has a 10.4% chance to make the CFP if they win out.
The Michigan Wolverines Offense
Michigan’s offense ranks 45th in SP+ and continues to lean on a dominant ground game that averages 6.2 yards per carry (8th) with a 48.4% rushing success rate (30th). The Wolverines generate 6.62 yards per play and 2.51 points per drive, thriving on early down success (49.3% SD success rate) and a disciplined offensive line that allows pressure on just 1.8% of dropbacks. While the passing game remains efficient but not explosive (7.3 yards per dropback, 44.8% success rate - 52nd), Michigan’s methodical tempo (28.2 seconds per play, 96th) and low penalty rate keep drives on schedule. Overall, this is a balanced, power-centric unit built on trench dominance and mistake-free execution, capable of grinding down defenses over four quarters. However, they are not built for chasing situations, as was evidenced in their 31-13 loss to USC.
Michigan Player to Watch on Offense: QB Bryce Underwood
True freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has shown poise beyond his experience level in seven starts, completing 62.4% of his passes for 1,440 yards, 7 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions, with a strong 8.5 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and 69.9 QBR. He’s been efficient from the pocket, taking sacks on only 4.2% of dropbacks, while maintaining a 45.9% passing success rate and averaging 12.7 yards per completion. Underwood is a credible threat on the ground as well, rushing 31 times for 249 yards (8.03 YPC) with 3 touchdowns and a 51.6% success rate, including a 28.2% rate of 10+ yard runs. His blend of arm talent, accuracy, and mobility has given Michigan’s offense a modern spark, making him one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the nation.
The Michigan Wolverines Defense
Michigan’s defense remains the backbone of the program, ranking 9th in SP+ while allowing just 4.74 yards per play and 1.49 points per drive, both Top 25 marks. The Wolverines excel in run defense, holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry (19th) and a 38.6% rushing success rate (38th), while ranking Top 25 nationally in both EPA/play (-0.04) and yards per successful rush allowed (7.9). Their pass rush has been fierce, producing a 42.2% pressure rate (2nd nationally) and a Top 15 ranking in turnover creation with a +9 margin. With a defensive havoc rate near 20%, elite tackling efficiency (87.6%), and the ability to suppress explosive plays, Michigan continues to suffocate opposing offenses with precision and physicality.
Michigan Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Derrick Moore
Edge rusher Derrick Moore has emerged as one of Michigan’s most disruptive defenders, tallying 19 tackles, 8 havoc plays, 5.0 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks across seven games. His ability to generate pressure is elite, posting a 16.7% pressure rate and producing 15 total pressures on just 90 pass-rush snaps. Moore’s quick first step and power off the edge have translated into five sack-creating plays and a forced fumble, making him a constant threat in opposing backfields. Combining strength, technique, and burst, he’s become a cornerstone of the Wolverines’ front seven and one of the Big Ten’s most feared pass rushers.
Michigan State Spartans
Head Coach: Jonathan Smith
2025 Record: 3-4
Offense Ranking: 66
Defense Ranking: 90
Strength of Schedule: 20
Under new Head Coach Jonathan Smith, Michigan State sits at 3–4 (0–4 Big Ten) with an SP+ ranking of 74th and has shown marginal offensive improvement but remains hindered by defensive inconsistency. The Spartans’ middling offense ranks 66th in SP+, averaging 5.37 yards per play (95th) and scoring 2.44 points per drive (60th), leaning upon a Top 15 red-zone touchdown rate (70.4%). The defense has been porous, rating 90th in SP+ while allowing 6.2 yards per play (120th), a 47.3% passing success rate (128th nationally), and struggling mightily on third downs and explosive play prevention. Despite their competitive start, Michigan State faces one of the nation’s toughest remaining schedules (20th in SOS) and will need drastic defensive improvement to reach bowl eligibility.
The Michigan State Spartans Offense
Michigan State’s offense ranks 66th nationally in SP+, showing flashes of explosiveness despite overall inconsistency. The Spartans are posting a 43.1% success rate (71st), converting 73.6% of down sets (57th) and rank 12th in points per scoring opportunity (5.22). Their run game has been uninspiring, posting 4.6 yards per carry (86th) with a 44.3% rushing success rate, while the passing game delivers 6.2 yards per dropback (87th) with limited big-play capability (14.5% of passes gaining 20+ yards, 93rd). Protection remains an issue allowing a 16.4% havoc rate (106th) and their 35% 3-and-out rate (120th) is simply unacceptable.
Michigan State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Aidan Chiles
Junior quarterback Aidan Chiles has been the centerpiece of Michigan State’s offense, showing dual-threat capability through the air and on the ground. He’s completed 65.1% of his passes for 1,262 yards with a 10–3 TD-to-INT ratio, posting a solid 75.4 QBR despite facing pressure on nearly 29% of dropbacks. As a runner, Chiles has added 357 yards and five touchdowns on 7.44 yards per carry, converting an elite 62.5% rushing success rate and moving the chains on more than half of his attempts (56.3%). Chiles’ combination of accuracy, mobility, and playmaking has been an asset, but with bouts of poor play and inconsistency littered throughout his tape.
The Michigan State Spartans Defense
Michigan State’s defense has struggled mightily in 2025, ranking 90th in SP+ and allowing 6.2 yards per play and 2.77 points per drive, both near the bottom of the Big Ten. The Spartans’ 46.3% defensive success rate (120th nationally) and 47.3% passing success rate allowed (128th) highlight major issues with consistency and coverage, as opponents complete nearly 70% of their passes. Their front has failed to generate disruption, producing just a 12.8% defensive havoc rate (115th) and a paltry 3% defensive line havoc rate (114th), with opponents converting 45.9% of third downs. While linebacker play has been a relative strength, the lack of pressure (123rd) and explosive-play prevention has made this one of the more permissive defenses in Power Four competition.
Michigan State Player to Watch on Defense: S Malik Spencer
Safety Malik Spencer has been one of Michigan State’s few bright spots defensively, registering 31 tackles, 7 havoc plays, and three pass breakups through six games. He’s been highly effective near the line of scrimmage, producing three tackles for loss and two sacks while maintaining an 86.1% tackle rate and forcing two fumbles. Spencer’s coverage metrics show he’s allowed completions on just 50% of targets (5-of-10) for 64 yards with one touchdown, yielding a Defensive QBR of 86.6. His blend of range, tackling consistency, and blitzing impact has made him a critical playmaker in the Spartan secondary and one of their most versatile defensive assets.
No. 25 Michigan at Michigan State team stats, betting trends
- Michigan has won 4 of its last 5 games when a road favorite
- Michigan State has failed to cover in its last 7 games at home
- The Over is 7-3 in Michigan State’s last 10 games
Rotoworld Best Bets
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Eric Froton (@CFFroton): WR Semaj Morgan UNDER 28.5 Receiving Yards
Michigan prefers to pound the rock and control the pace of the game via their mammoth offensive line and talented RB duo of Jordan Marshall/Justice Haynes (Inj?). UM runs the ball at well above average rates on both passing and rushing downs and rank 96th in pace of play. I feel comfortable that Michigan wins this game by 2 scores over a punchless MSU team that still hasn’t found itself under HC Jonathan Smith. With Michigan likely to get up quickly and be in a position to salt the game away in the 2nd half, they won’t be throwing the ball in an attempt to make up ground. Slot WR Semaj Morgan has fallen out of favor due to him leading the nation in drops (6-in-35 catchable targets) and drop rate at 24%, as Channing Goodwin ate into his reps last game with Morgan recording his lowest snap rate all season. Perhaps Morgan pops a long reception and beats his 28.5 Receiving Yardage line, but he’s trending in the wrong direction and could outright lose his starting job if Goodwin gets hot. I’m taking the Under 28.5 Receiving Yards on Michigan WR Semaj Morgan.
***
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAAF calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Wolverines and Spartans
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Michigan State Spartans at +14.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 47.5.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
