The Honda Classic is taking stage this week at PGA National.
We are starting the Florida Swing which means water hazards and wind. It also means a return to bermudagrass turf.
Let’s take a peek at some stats and see if anyone stands out in the betting markets this week.
Erik Barnes - Top 40 Finish (+225)
Many skip over the top-40 market because they don’t produce the big payouts as other golf markets. Yet, we get a nice plus-money payout by looking down the board to someone like Barnes.
I have Barnes ranked 43rd in baseline performance in this week’s field, which puts him right on the fringe of this top-40 target.
However, looking into some split stats, with Korn Ferry data included, Barnes elevates his game by roughly a whole stroke per round on tough courses, the second-highest improvement over baseline in the entire field. He also improves over his baseline by more than half a shot when playing on courses with bermuda greens.
We’re getting a lot of value on Barnes to post a top 40 when you consider his ability to handle tough courses and his affinity for bermudagrass.
Eric Cole - Top 20 Finish (+200)
While Barnes checks some of the boxes when it comes to split stats, it’s another Eric that catches my eye when looking at course-fit stats.
Looking at the last 24 rounds from the field, Cole ranks 3rd in bogey avoidance, 5th in scrambling, and 5th in three-putt avoidance.
I don’t like to lean on one stat too heavily but when a golfer of his caliber checks so many boxes, I can’t ignore it.
He’s arriving off a T15 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am which was the best result of his young PGA TOUR career. For +200 odds, I will take a gamble that he can maintain that momentum this week at PGA National.
