Vaughn Dalzell breaks down a three-pack of MLB Player Props including, AL MVP candidate Shohei Ohtani, Chris Morel and AJ Smith-Shawver.
Shohei Ohtani O/U 18.5 Outs vs. Rangers
The leading AL MVP candidate has been on fire all season and has an interesting line on DraftKings and BetMGM.
The Over 17.5 Outs is -210 on BetMGM and the Under 18.5 Outs on DraftKings is -210.
The Under 17.5 Outs on BetMGM is +140 and the Over 18.5 Outs on DraftKings is +160.
On the road in 2023, Ohtani has pitched more than 6.0 innings or earned 18 outs just once out of six tries. Ohtani has pitched 6.0 innings on the dot four of those six times, so that is why we see a definite line on him going 6.0 innings.
Current Rangers’ hitters own 102 plate appearances against Ohtani for a .250 OBA, 28.4 K% and 29.9 whiff %. Since the start of 2021, Ohtani has faced Texas seven times and only went more than 6.0 innings once but 6.0 innings on the dot three times.
While this line is fishy and seems like an easy Under, I like the Over 18.5 Outs at +160 odds. Texas is also hitting .227 over the last six days (24th) with 56 strikeouts (6th-most). I lean the Angels ML and +1.5.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 18.5 Outs (1u)
AJ Smith-Shawver O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies
The Braves’ AJ Smith-Shawver is getting his second start of the season and will be called on to do a little more with Atlanta playing a double-header yesterday, which resulted in exhausting the bullpen.
Smith-Shawver went 5.1 innings and 86 pitches in his first start hosting Washington. He recorded two strikeouts and two walks, in addition to three hits and two runs (no earned).
Colorado has struck out 59 times over the last six games, which is the most in the league over that span, plus a .235 BA (21st). This will be the first time Colorado meets the youngster, plus the Rockies are much worse on the road.
The Rockies own the 5th-most strikeouts away from home this season (333 Ks in 35 game) with a .236 BA (20th).
Six-straight pitchers at home hit five-plus strikeouts against Colorado and 11 of the previous 13.
I played Smith-Shawver Over 4.5 Strikeouts at -125 odds on DraftKings and would go out to -130. I lean the Over 9.0 in this matchup as well since the Braves’ bullpen is limited.
Pick: AJ Smith-Shawver Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Christopher Morel O/U 1.5 Hits + RBIs + Runs vs. Pirates
Chris Morel was announced as the DH and batting 7th in the Cubs’ lineup tonight.
In June, Morel is hitting .208 on five hits in 24 at-bats (five walks). Morel has six RBIs and two homers in June, both coming in the past four games.
However, this will be Morel’s third-straight day and a historically tough pitching matchup for him.
In his last two series playing three-straight days, Morel ended up a combined 0-7 with one walk and one strikeout.
Morel has six plate appearances versus the Pirates’ Johan Oviedo and struck out four times with one hit, plus a 45.5% whiff rate. Since Morel’s batting 7th, he should not have more than four plate appearances, but potentially three if he gets pulled for another batter late.
Fade the Cubs’ DH tonight in a game where the game total is set at 6.5 or 7.0. I played the Under 1.5 Hits + RBIs + Runs at -155 odds on DraftKings and would go out to -175 or pivot to Under 0.5 Hits.
Pick: Christopher Morel Under 1.5 Hits + RBIs + Runs (Risk 1u)
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