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It’s Wednesday, which means we’ve got baseball all day and all night to bet on. I’ve narrowed down my thoughts and picked out a couple of great plays I like for the nightcap, and I’ll get to those now.
Chicago White Sox (-155) vs. Chicago Cubs (+130) Total: 7
I’m not really sure why this line is so short; I’d make the White Sox at least -170 favorites here. Yeah, Lucas Giolito hasn’t exactly been pitching at a Cy Young pace as we’ve seen in years past, but a 3.70 xERA will do just fine, as will a 37.9% strikeout rate which ranks in the top 3% of the league.
The Cubs are sleepwalking at the plate right now; once a top-five team in terms of wRC+, Chicago is now smack dab in the middle of the league. While they’ve seen some negative regression, the White Sox are just now beginning to see some positive regression. They’re top five in terms of xwOBA, and their xwOBA sits 61 points higher than their real-life wOBA.
This is because the South Siders are top-five in exit velocity and continues to punish the baseball. It’s only a matter of time before they start turning things around, and I think that will start on Wednesday against Kyle Hendricks. Once a master at pitching to contact, the righty is now allowing a hard-hit ball in nearly half of his batted ball events. This is setting up to be a nightmare for the Cubs.
Edge: White Sox -155
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New York Yankees (-145) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+125) Total: 8
Sure, if you want to go by the “due factor,” then the Yankees are surely going to lose this game. They’ve won 11 in a row, and they can’t possible win 12, right!?
Well, a winning strategy in betting is to look at every matchup in a vacuum. You will win more often than not when riding a hot streak instead of guessing when it will end. The Yankees will not win every game from now until the end of the season, but they should win on Wednesday.
That’s because their best pitcher, Nestor Cortes, is getting the ball. The lefty’s expected ERA sits under two runs, and his strikeout rate is one of the best in the game. On top of that, Yusei Kikuchi is starting for Toronto, and he’s only allowed a gaudy 47.8% hard-hit rate and a 5.98 xERA. He’s a fly ball pitcher with quality-of-contact issues going against one of the most dangerous teams in the league in terms of exit velocity. This won’t go well for the lefty, who I will fade almost every single time he starts.
Edge: Yankees -145
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