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MLB K Props, September 21: Rogers, Rasmussen, Woodford, Keller O/U

Mitch Keller

Mitch Keller


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Mitch Keller O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Reds

Maybe the sportsbooks know something we do not, but Over 5.5 strikeouts for Mitch Keller against the Reds? Seems steep.

Keller has met the Reds three times this season and in all three games, he failed to record six strikeouts. Keller has 13.1 innings versus Cincy this season and nine total strikeouts with an 8.78 ERA, .353 OBA and 18 hits to 13 earned runs. Not ideal numbers for a six-strikeout performance.

To make matters worse, the Reds have faced nine starting RHP this month and eight of them have gone Under 5.5 Ks with Max Scherzer as the lone Over, per statmuse.



Based on those two facts alone, Keller is worth a play on the Under.

Digging in deeper, he does have slightly better strikeout numbers on the road than at home and his ERA drops from 7.76 (home) to 3.63 (away).

However, Keller only has three road starts since June! He has made 10 overall in that span. Keller lasted 5.0 innings versus the Reds and Cardinals, then 6.0 against the Cubs (no surprise).

With 34.2 innings of road baseball under his belt, I believe Keller will not make it past 5.0 innings today.

When he goes 5.0 innings or fewer, Keller has a hit rate of 65% (11/17). On the year, he sports a 65% hit rate overall (13/18) to the Under, per NBC’s player prop model.

Mitch Keller

Mitch Keller

Pick: Mitch Keller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)

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Drew Rasmussen O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Blue Jays

We hit Drew Rasmussen as a 1.5u play the last time he met the Blue Jays for -118 odds. This morning, this opened at +130 to the Under 4.5 Ks, then quickly moved to 3.5 on some books.

If you grabbed the 4.5 +130 like me when you woke up, hopefully we took advantage of a mistake line and cash.

Either way, this is a solid play for numerous reasons outside the previous meeting where Rasmussen only lasted 52 pitches in 5.0 innings. He struck out three and walked one with two hits.

With the Tampa Bay Rays, Rasmussen is 7-1 (87.5%) as a starter to the Under 4.5 strikeouts and 6-2 (75%) to Under 3.5 strikeouts, per NBC’s player prop model.

The only team he recorded four or five strikeouts against were the Red Sox at home and in Boston, so clearly, he has a crush on the Red Sox.

Rasmussen hit rate

Rasmussen hit rate

Rasmussen could have probably gone past 5.0 innings against Toronto in the previous start. However, against an offense like the Blue Jays, that can be dangerous.

Rasmussen only threw 60-plus pitches this season against Boston twice (71, 74) and 58 or fewer in every other game.

Since being traded to Tampa, Rasmussen has 43 strikeouts to 12 walks in 49.0 innings. As a starter, that ratio is 23 strikeouts in 32.0 innings (0.71 Ks per inning).

The Blue Jays have 47 strikeouts (9th-fewest) in the last seven days (six games). In total, 14 RHP has faced Toronto this month and 10 went Under 4.5 strikeouts (71.4%), per statmuse.



Eight of the last 11 RHP went Under 4.5 strikeouts (72.7%) and six of the previous eight Under 3.5 Ks (75%).

Back the Under 4.5 Ks for one unit and the Under 3.5 Ks for 0.5 unit if that is all you can get.

Pick: Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

Trevor Rogers O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Nationals

I was hoping for a 5.5 strikeout prop rather than a 4.5 on Trevor Rogers and we got it!

The Marlins big LHP has faced Washington three separate times this season and does not sponsor the most supportive numbers for an Over.

On the year, Rogers owns a 3.86 ERA, .286 OBA and 12 strikeouts to seven walks and 16 hits in 14.0 innings pitched versus the Nationals.

He was a big hit at the beginning of the year, but we have witnessed Rogers tail off as the season has progressed. In September, Rogers sports a 4.97 ERA, .296 OBA and 16 hits to 12 strikeouts in 12.2 innings (three starts).

Since July 31st, Rogers has yet to reach 5.0 innings pitched in every start. He has gone 5.0 innings or less in seven straight and eight out of the past nine starts.

When he goes 5.0 innings or fewer, Rogers has hit the Under 5.5 strikeouts in seven of the past 10 (70%) and 4.5 strikeouts in six of the last 10 (60%), per NBC’s player prop model.

Rogers Under 5 IP L10

Rogers Under 5 IP L10

Against the Nats, eight of the last 10 LHP went Under 5.5 strikeouts (80%) and 17 out of the previous 20 (85%).

Seven of the past 10 went Under 4.5 Ks (70%) and 15 of the last 20 (75%), per statmuse.



Rogers has subpar numbers against hitters like Juan Soto, Alcides Escobar, Lane Thomas, Jordy Mercer and Ryan Zimmerman.

If hitters like Josh Bell and Carter Kiebmoom can stay disciplined at the plate, this prop should be a favorable spot for another Under versus Washington.

Pick: Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 Strikeouts or 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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Jake Woodford was scratched yesterday with cold feet after seeing my tweet but you can’t run or hide, Jake.

Woodford will be making his first start against the Brewers and his third appearance of the season.

Woodford has not been worth backing when he is starting on the mound. As a starter, Woodford opponents average a .307 batting average and .805 OPS.

In 95 plate appearances, Woodford has 14 strikeouts and seven walks.

Milwaukee has had 40 strikeouts in the last five games (T-4th fewest) and 27 walks (2nd-most) in the past seven days. Despite hitting a poor .185 in that stretch (bottom-five), the Brewers present challenges to RHP.

Over the last seven meetings with RHP, five of the seven went Under 3.5 strikeouts (71.4%) per statmuse. That group of RHP is pretty comparable to Woodford.

The last five of eight starting pitchers overall have gone Under 3.5 Ks (62.5%).


No one on Milwaukee has more than three plate appearances versus Woodford, but with two games and 7.0 innings of relief experience already versus him, this is a good spot for the Brew Crew to figure him out at home.

Woodford is 4-1 to the Under 3.5 strikeouts as a starter (80%). NBC’s model predicts 3.0 strikeouts in 4.2 innings, hitting the Under.


Over Woodford’s last two starts, he owns a 3.38 ERA, .241 OBA and three strikeouts to four walks and eight hits in 8.0 innings.

Woodford holds a 0.70 strikeout per inning average on the road compared to 0.85 at home, so expect this to win if he lasts fewer than five innings.

If this wasn’t juiced to -140, this would an ideal 1.5u play but we will go 1u and expect a sweat. I would not play this past the -160 range.

Pick: Jake Woodford Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)

Paul Blackburn O/U 2.5 Strikeouts vs. Mariners

We hit on Paul Blackburn Over 2.5 strikeouts in his previous start versus a red-hot Royals squad and we will run it back here.

Blackburn hit three Ks in 5.0 innings and 79 pitches versus Kansas City. Entering that game, Kansas City was top five in numerous hitting categories.

Seattle is hitting .240 this past week (17th) and owns 44 strikeouts (6th-fewest) and 21 walks (T-14th) over six games. However, getting three strikeouts is something many pitchers can do.

Versus the Mariners, 13 of the last 15 RHP did 3+ strikeouts (86.6%) with nine hitting 4+ strikeouts (60%), per statmuse.

Blackburn has hit three or more Ks in five out of his six starts (83.3%) and lasted 5.0 innings or more in four.



Blackburn has hit the Over 2.5 Ks two of three starts at home, failing to do so versus the Yankees. He did face the Mariners at home, which helps in backing the Over here.

Against Seattle, Blackburn went a season-long 5.2 innings and threw a season-high 97 pitches with no walks.

NBC’s player prop model has value on Blackburn as one of seven pitchers. Blackburn is predicted to hit 4.1 strikeouts in 4.2 innings, hitting the Over.

NBC K Prop MOdel

NBC K Prop MOdel

Blackburn has a habit of allowing contact (5 hits or more in all six games), but Seattle is a quality opponent in a big game.

Blackburn should see more swings and misses this time around with a 1.0 game of difference between the two in the race for the final AL Wildcard spot.

Pick: Paul Blackburn Over 2.5 Strikeouts (1u)

Julio Urias O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies

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