Vaughn Dalzell breaks down why he’s betting the Reds and Padres to make the NL Postseason.
Cincinnati Reds (+230)
Cincy owns the 10th-easiest remaining SOS and the third-easiest in the NL, which should benefit this young team after running into the now NL-leading Brewers before and after the All-Star break.
The NL Central is so weak that the Reds could pad wins in the second half with 20 games remaining against the Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals.
The Reds are currently 2.0 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot and have eight-straight series versus NL opponents with five of them in the playoff hunt.
Cincy has been impressive this year with a 12-game winning streak and the emergence of Elly De La Cruz, plus Joey Votta and a couple of key offseason additions.
Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are expected back this year, which will give the Reds’ pitching staff a significant boost as they make the playoff push.
The Reds are posting at top 10 offense this year and an impressive 27-20 on the road, which is a key stat considering Cincy ends the year on a five-game road trip at Cleveland and St. Louis.
At +230 odds, I will take a chance on the Reds making the postseason. Cincy won 62 games last year and is currently 50-44 with 68 games remaining.
Pick: Reds (1u)
San Diego Padres (+425)
The Padres’ pitching staff ranks seventh in ERA (3.84), sixth in OBA (.238), and the ninth-most innings pitched (836.1).
San Diego’s pitching was very shaky early on in the season, but guys like Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove have carried the Padres as of late.
The San Diego offense ranks middle of the pack in plenty of categories and hasn’t yet to live up to the hype with names like Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the lineup, the Padres should be scoring more runs.
In June, San Diego scored the fourth-most runs (153 in 29 games) and hit .256 in that span (9th), so the offense is starting to heat up at the right time.
San Diego is 10.5 games back of the NL West lead and 8.0 games back of the final Wild Card spot. The Padres have to catch teams like the Giants, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, and Diamondbacks, who are all within striking distance.
The odds of +425 are too great to pass on when it comes to how well this pitching rotation is playing, plus the scoring ability of this offense.
Pick: Padres (1u)
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