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The UFC Fight Night main event this week is a Heavyweight matchup between Alexander Volkov and Tom Aspinall. The UFC is back in London, England at the O2 Arena in front of 20,000 people and this crowd will be cheering heavily for Aspinall and the British fighters.
The organization’s No. 11 ranked Heavyweight faces his stiffest challenge yet in Alexander Volkov, a gatekeeper in the division at this point as he has lost to the upper echelon of the division. Guys like Curtis Blaydes, Derrick Lewis, and Ciryl Gane. Volkov is a great matchup for Aspinall, allowing him to showcase those mixed martial arts skills on his home soil.
The Skillset of Alexander Volkov
A fighter who’s very good when he can fight at his range, Volkov stands 6 foot, 7 inches tall with an 80-inch reach. He has skill at using his physical attributes, specifically his length, to keep opponents at the end of his punches while also burying kicks to the body and legs. Volkov fights to his strengths, which allows him to score offensively and defend strikes at a solid rate. His game plan vs. Aspinall starts with keeping this fight standing. On the feet he’ll want to control the distance and use the clinch to bury knees to the body.
The Skillset of Tom Aspinall
Aspinall is very capable of continuing his rise up the Heavyweight ranks with an eye-opening performance in his home country. It must be noted that Tom hasn’t fought in front of 20,000 people before, and the inevitable pressure of fighting at home adds a mental aspect to this matchup. Aspinall is quick, agile, and explosive; a superior athlete who hasn’t shown us all the skills he has in his toolkit.
He’s capable of dropping his opponent with powerful strikes, an elbow in the clinch like the Spivak fight or a step-in knee. He’s also a BJJ black belt and can execute a blast double leg wrestling takedown as he did vs. Andrei Arlovski and slap on a rear-naked choke without getting his hooks in for the win. He has many weapons and he’s a well-rounded mixed martial artist with powerful hands. Aspinall also doesn’t have a lot of cage time, since his fights routinely finish in the 1st or 2nd round.
The Gypsy King @Tyson_Fury is backing his boy Tom Aspinall to take the W at #UFCLondon 👑 pic.twitter.com/8f0WhzdT60
— UFC (@ufc) March 15, 2022
The Stats
- Volkov averages 4.86 strikes landed per minute and possesses 54% striking defense
- Aspinall averages 7.19 strikes landed per minute with 65% striking accuracy
- Volkov has 73% takedown defense, that number includes being taken down 14 times by Curtis Blaydes
- Aspinall averages 2.73 takedowns per 15 minutes with 100% takedown accuracy
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Picking a Winner
My pick to win the Main Event:
- Tom Aspinall
My preferred bet for the Main Event:
- Prop: Tom Aspinall (-130)
Aspinall has a lot of skills and the interesting part is to see how he plans to fight Volkov. Alexander is taller by 2 inches with a 2-inch reach advantage. Aspinall is a powerful boxer, but he may choose to use some grappling, wrestling and BJJ techniques. Volkov’s skillset is exclusively on the feet and his win equity is linked to him keeping this fight standing and winning the striking exchanges. Aspinall can certainly win those exchanges, but that plays into Volkov’s only chance to win this fight.
That said, Aspinall should hold his own in these striking exchanges and the power in his hands should do plenty of damage. He’s also capable of wrestling Volkov and using his jiu-jitsu on the feet or on the ground to finish this fight. Aspinall’s approach will be interesting and I believe he wins this fight given his multiple paths to finishing and getting ahead on the judge’s scorecards.
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