The UFC returns to Las Vegas, Nevada for a Lightheavyweight clash at the UFC APEX between Jan Blachowicz and Aleksander Rakic. The winner of this matchup puts themselves in a position to fight the winner of Glover Teixeira vs Jiri Prochazka for the UFC Light Heavyweight title. Jan Blachowicz won the title with a knockout of Dominick Reyes in 2020. He defended his title belt once vs Israel Adesanya before falling to Glover Teixeira via rear-naked choke. Blachowicz vs Rakic was scheduled for March until Jan had a neck injury and pulled out of the fight. He should be fully healed now.
The Skillset of Jan Blachowicz
Jan Blachowicz is a patient striker. He is defensively responsible in the striking exchanges. Jan has the power to finish his opponents when they enter the pocket and he has been opportunistic in his ability to land finishing strikes with his Polish Power. He will mix in a takedown for control and slow the fight down. He is a distance striker and is capable of using his arm length to strike while keeping his opponent on the end of his punches. He has the hand speed to capitalize on his power when his opponent closes the distance. Jan will predominately attack the head in the striking exchanges and mix in some leg kicks.
The Skillset of Aleksander Rakic
Aleksander Rakic has been given high praise since entering the UFC. He has had some dominating victories before his lone UFC setback to Volkan Oezdemir. Rakic has been getting better as a complete mixed martial artist. He has a Muay Thai fighting style and is light on his feet. He employs a heavy kicking game from distance. He uses the low kick with plenty of power. He will fight behind his jab and occasionally mix in combinations. He is also a patient striker who is defensively sound.
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The Stats
- Aleksandar Rakic is nine years younger than Jan Blachowicz
- Aleksandar Rakic has a two inch height advantage over Jan Blachowicz
- Aleksandar Rakic averages 4.23 strikes landed per minute while Jan Blachowicz averages 3.59 strikes landed per minute
- Striking accuracy and striking defense are almost identical: 49% to 52% with Rakic holding the slight accuracy advantage & 53% to 52% with Blackowicz holding the slight defensive striking advantage
Picking a Winner
My pick to win the Main Event:
- Aleksandar Rakic
My best bet for the Main Event:
- Prop: Aleksandar Rakic & Over 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Aleksandar Rakic vs Jan Blachowicz is going to be a chess match. They have similar approaches to fighting on this level. They have excellent distance management and are defensively sound. This fight should enter the late rounds. I favor Aleksandar Rakic slightly as a result of his movement. Rakic should be fighting behind his jab and attacking the legs of Jan Blachowicz with his leg kicks. Jan will look to implement a very similar game plan. This fight should come down to who can be successful with their jab. It may not be exciting to watch these guys strike but there will be nuance involved in these striking exchanges.
