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Twenty drivers are already locked into the All-Star race with another four, (the winners of three stages and a fan vote), will join them. As a result, and given the relatively short fields of 2022, this featured race will be about two-thirds that of a points’ paying race.
The 2022 format is a variation on a theme and throughout its history the fields have always been in the general ballpark of the low 20s. Earning top-10s in any individual event is not difficult, but the ability to string them together is something entirely different.
Qualification for the race centers around winning races. The pre-qualified entrants this week have won in the past year or two, but that does not necessarily make them favorites.
All wins are not created equal, so AJ Allmendinger‘s (+9000) win on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, as impressive as it was, does not make him a driver worthy of the bet. Neither does Michael McDowell‘s (+50000) Daytona 500 win from last year – and Austin Cindric‘s (+4000) 2022 victory in that race preceded a mostly disappointing first third of this season.
While writing this week’s Best Bets column, we didn’t put a lot of emphasis on the PointsBet Sportsbook odds. Based on their records, Kevin Harvick‘s 25/1 line and Aric Almirola at 66/1 just make them a more attractive proposition since they can bank a big return – and almost anyone in the field has a shot at winning this race.
But the PointsBet traders set the odds based on potential and that is something that cannot be ignored. The lower the odds, the more likely they believe the chance is that a payout is coming. We don’t always agree, and seven of the top-10 ranked drivers did not make our Best Bets list. That doesn’t mean they should not be analyzed this week.
William Byron (+900) has not performed particularly well in the three All-Star races he’s run. Given the fact that one needs only to be among the top 20 percent of finishers, top-fives will eventually come, however, and given how strong he has run on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks this year, this could be the week. If a top-five is possible, so is a win if the gloves are dropped in the closing laps.
And the odds of the gloves being dropped in the All-Star race is always high. Like a plate race, the drivers will typically mind their manners until the money is on the line, but as soon as they realize there’s a million dollars at stake and practically no penalty for wrecking, they drive with abandon.
Denny Hamlin (+1100) is among the best in the field at biding his time. He’s dominated his fair share of races, but mostly he is willing to race the track for 75 percent of the event and put his car at risk only when it’s time to head to the pay window. Hamlin won the 2015 edition of this race and has been in the top 10 in all but two of six All-Star events that followed. Two of these were top-fives, but two of his last three ended outside the top 15.
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This is the kind of race that should be tailormade for Ross Chastain (+1100). His youthful exuberance does not need to be contained and winning here adds to his mystique. It would also add another track type to his resume after taking the trophies home from Circuit of the Americas (COTA) and Talladega Superspeedway. As much as most drivers say they are not aware of statistics, this is something that will fuel Chastain’s run.
Ryan Blaney (+1200) needs something good to happen. We’ve often said that he’s run better than he’s finished, and that was true for quite some time. Lately, that hasn’t been as impactful and with half of the regular season in the books after the AdventHealth 400, pressure is beginning to mount. Blaney failed to crack the top 10 in his first three attempts. He finished sixth on the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track and finally scored his first top-five last year at Texas Motor Speedway.
Can Martin Truex Jr. (+1300) regain his “cookie-cutter” crown? It will take a while for the momentum to shift and put him back in the dominant form we saw as he took the mantle from Jimmie Johnson, but a journey of a thousand steps begins with one. He’s a much longer shot than his 13/1 odds suggest though, and that makes him a poor value. Truex’s best All-Star finish was second in 2009 and he has not earned another one since. His last seven efforts netted two 10th-place finishes as a high-water mark and an average of 13.4.
Christopher Bell (+1500) finished 11th at Bristol two years ago and again last spring at Texas. The third time could be the charm for a driver who has improved substantially in the past several weeks. Joe Gibbs Racing’s (JGR) solid performance last week when, they lined all four drivers up third through sixth on the similarly-configured Kansas Speedway, is going to give them a leg up at Texas.
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Dark Horses for the 2022 AdventHealth 400 [Kansas 1]
Pennzoil 400 [Las Vegas 1]
Wise Power 400 [Auto Club]
