There have been five races so far this year on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks in the Xfinity Series. Four of these, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Atlanta Motor Speedway, and Charlotte Motor Speedway, were run in conjunction with a Cup points race. The other was part of the All-Star weekend at Texas Motor Speedway.
In those five races, five different drivers visited Victory Lane, which suggests a parity that might not actually exist. Joe Gibbs Racing won the last two 1.5-mile races with Ty Gibbs behind the wheel at Charlotte and Kyle Busch at Texas where he earned his 100th Xfinity race in dominant fashion.
For all Gibbs’ strength with these two drivers, it has not filtered down to the rest of the stable. If Busch stumbles, there are plenty of others waiting to pounce – and since Busch has minus odds, that is where you want to concentrate your effort. Don’t go crazy, however, because no one has beaten him yet in 2021.
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Proposed Winner
Do you want creative, or accurate? Last week we did not handicap Kyle Busch (-140) as the potential winning driver – and we were almost correct in that assessment. For much of the Henry 180, he had a top-10 capable car, but it did not seem like he would win. A late caution reset the field with Busch near the front and when that happens, he is incredibly hard to keep at bay.
We don’t know if Busch will make good on his promise to stop racing in the Xfinity Series now that he has crested 100 wins. For the moment, he has one more opportunity in 2021 to add another win to his already impressive 101, which is more than twice his nearest competitor. And while the field may be gaining experience with him as a competitor, he certainly skews the odds. That is good news – but only if he loses.
Can Busch go five-for-five on the season? One certainly doesn’t want to bet against him, but he’s come close once before with four wins and another top-five in 2019. It’s difficult to keep streaks alive, but we all know that if anyone can do it, Busch is that driver.
Best Bets for a top five
Austin Cindric (+900) is ranked third at PointsBet Sportsbook this week and we’re not exactly certain why he’s not in the second slot. His numbers indicate that a top-five is virtually guaranteed because he has finished that well in four of the five races on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks this year. His best effort was a second at Charlotte Motor Speedway behind Ty Gibbs. If Busch stumbles, Cindric should be right there to take the lead.
Daniel Hemric (+1000) has also been strong on the 1.5-milers. He came out of the gates strong with a third at Homestead-Miami Speedway, finished second at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and fourth at Texas Motor Speedway. A little doubt is raised by his ninth-place finish the last time we were at Atlanta, but with 10/1 odds he has a decent Return on Investment.
AJ Allmendinger (+1000) really wanted an oval win to prove he is not a one-trick pony. He got it at Las Vegas earlier this year and backed it up with a fifth at Atlanta. He nearly scored a third such finish in the most recent outing at Texas before narrowly missing in sixth. A 14th at Homestead was his only truly mediocre run. He lost his brakes and retired at Charlotte, which can’t be held against him.
The traders have Justin Allgaier (+550) ranked second, most likely because of his victory in the first Atlanta race. They seem to be ignoring his 14th at Vegas and 11th at Charlotte. Allgaier has been inconsistent and strong when he finds the right setup. In the most recent outing on this course type, he was second to Busch at Texas in an overtime finish.
If you are looking for a longshot, Brandon Jones (+2000) qualifies at 20/1. He is in strong equipment and used that to his advantage to scored three top-fives and an eighth in the five similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track races this year. It is true that Gibbs has seen their greatest success with Kyle and Ty, but that only makes the rest of the organization hungry.
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Xfinity Best Bets for Alsco Uniforms 250 (Texas)
Henry 180 (Road America)
Pocono Green 225 (Pocono)
