Road courses are wild cards – not in the same way as the aero-restricted superspeedways of Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway – but strategy plays an important role in who has track position for the critical final green flag run. It can change not only who is capable of winning, but the makeup of the top 10 and affect your entire betting strategy.
The final four races of the regular season feature two road courses and a plate track. The playoff drivers are almost set, but at least three and possibly four racers can change the dynamic significantly. Drivers with multiple wins, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott will spend the next four weeks attempting to earn as many playoff bonus points as possible. That task is made more difficult on road courses, because one often needs to trade a strong finish in Stage 2 for the opportunity to win.
NASCAR has raced on road courses enough that the strategy is well-developed. Count back from the end of the race, add a lap or two in case there is a green-white-checkered finish and make that your final pit stop. The remainder of the event is used to establish good enough track position that a driver does not lose lap time. As is often the case, however, things that look simple in theory are often quite difficult in reality.
That – along with the current dominance of Elliott on road courses – is why all but two drivers this week have opened at PointsBet Sportsbook with odds greater than 8/1.
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Proposed Winner
Of course Elliott (+180) is the favorite with odds under 2/1. Three wins and a second-place finish in four road course races this year and a string of four consecutive entering the season shows just how incredibly talented he is on this track type. He is not flawless, however. He did not look particularly strong early at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) and would not have won if the race had gone the scheduled distance. He simply got beat at Sonoma by Larson.
It is better to win a little than skip the bet entirely, but with such low odds, he is not a good value because the odds of everything going according to plan in the Cup series are much longer than 2/1.
Anything can happen in a NASCAR race. Elliott was clearly dominant in the O’Reilly 253 on the Dayton Road Course before he wrecked himself in traffic. In fact, if not for his dominant run at Road America, we would be tempted to elevate someone else into the No. 1 slot this week simply because of the value proposition.
Elliott won the last two races at the Glen.
Best Bets for a top five
Joey Logano (+1600) is ranked sixth in odds at PointsBet this week, but he is easily capable of finishing in the top five. His one and so far only road course win came in 2015 and it was earned during a streak of five straight results of sixth or better. He fell outside of the top 10 in six of the next seven races and was written off for a time. Logano’s 10th-place finish on the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval in 2019 reset his confidence. Logano finished ninth on Daytona Road Course last year and then rattled off four consecutive top-fives that included a pair of runner-up finishes. He stumbled at Road America, but should be able to rebound.
Kyle Larson (+475) was battling with the leaders this spring on the Daytona Road Course until a spin and contact with a barrier sent him home 30th. He might have won at COTA if rain had not shortened the event. He had the dominant car in the next road course race at Sonoma. The oddsmakers love him this week and we agree that he is more than capable of contending for the victory, but his modest run at Road America before he was spun by teammate Alex Bowman makes it difficult to handicap him as the probable winner.
Disregard Kyle Busch’s (+850) 10th at COTA. He was on his way to a top-five that week, but after watching NASCAR ignore rainy weather for most of the Texas Grand Prix, he adjusted his strategy and pitted early in order to make an uninterrupted run to the checkers. He came back to score a fifth at Sonoma and third at Road America. Busch has been almost perfect at the Glen in terms of top-10 finishes with a 40th in 2014 and an 11th in the most recent race in 2019.
Denny Hamlin (+1300) has one win and two more top-fives in his last three attempts at the Glen. In 2021, he has two top-fives and an eighth. The only time he has stumbled this year was in the heavy rain in Austin, Texas. That was unaccustomed conditions for everyone so you can read into his 14th-place finish anything you wish. Over the course of the last 18 road course races, Hamlin has a .500 top-five average and we believe he will add to that this week.
Best Bets for a top 10
If you don’t like any of our top-five picks, substitute Kurt Busch (+2500) for that driver. He is a great, but under-appreciated road course racer with results of sixth or better in four of his last five races. Three of these were fourth-place finishes. Those are his best results since he was second at Sonoma in 2015. That slight criticism is what barely dropped him out of our list for the top five.
We continue to be baffled by Martin Truex Jr. (+850). Frankly, we were ready to write him off on road courses where wins are concerned. And with only one top-five in five races from 2019 through COTA this year, it was hard to seriously think of him as a lead contender. As soon as that thought entered our mind, he had a strong third-place finish at Sonoma. So… we made him a favorite at Road America and he finished ninth. His top-10 percentage in the last 18 road course races is .778, so he should finish that well, but his 17/2 odds will drag those for a top-10 to an undesirable level. The good news is that he has one win and a pair of seconds in his last three races at the Glen.
He was in equipment with better funding, but the fact remains that Erik Jones (+20000) has a perfect record of top-10s at Watkins Glen with top-fives in his last two starts. He narrowly missed the top 10 at Sonoma and it will only take a little luck to get that extra position. If you can find a good line for a top-10, jump on it. He might also be worth a unit or two of your dark horse fund simply because of the huge payout.
Oddsmakers are starting to catch on to Ross Chastain (+4000). He started the season with +10000 at the Daytona Road course. He crashed in that race and faced +12500 odds at COTA. With a fourth-place finish there, his odds began to drop with a +9000 at Sonoma and +6600 at Road America. This week his odds dropped again, but there is still some wiggle room to give him a good line for a top-10 or -five.
If not for a brake issue at Road America, Alex Bowman (+3000) would have a perfect record of top-10s on road courses this year. He was contending for a top-five in Wisconsin before making contact with teammate Larson. With a bad tire rub, he pitted late and finished 22nd. With three wins already this season, Bowman’s confidence level is high and he has nothing to lose by going for broke.
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