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As if four lotteries were not enough on the NASCAR calendar, Atlanta Motor Speedway ignored the pleas of the drivers and successfully transformed their similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track in a carburetor-restricted superspeedway. Luck in racing now plays a bigger factor in betting and handicapping.
This change also means that with five races in the books, two of them bear little impact on predicting who will run well on unrestricted tracks and with the first road course race on the horizon, it’s going to take a while longer to determine who will be strongest with the NextGen car. Of course, if you are an Austin Cindric or William Byron fan, you can take some solace in the fact that they are most likely to qualify for the playoffs with their lottery winnings.
The reason we say those two drivers are most likely to make the playoffs is because five victors in the first five weeks brings forward the speculation that there could be more than 16 unique winners in the 26-race regular season. If that is the case, then NASCAR’s tiebreaker procedure comes into play and one win will not be enough to advance a driver low in the points. In 2021, the first repeat winner came in Week 8, but the new car is heightening the sense of parity.
Top 10
1. Joey Logano (Last week: 1)
Weeks in the top 10: 5
Weeks as #1: 2
Power Average: 8.44
Logano made his way to the top of the Power Rankings chart last week based on consistency and remains there by drawing ninth in the QuikTrip 500. In five races, he now has one top-five, three top-10s, and a 14th with his worst showing coming at Daytona International Speedway. He got off to a strong start on road courses in 2021 but faded at the end of the year.
2. Chase Elliott (Last week: 5) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Power Average: 9.12
Elliott didn’t win last week on his home track in Atlanta and in eight starts there, he still only has the one top-five that came back in 2017. The new track was kind to him, however, and his Average Running Position and Driver Rating were among the top three. Last year he was the class of the field on road courses and won the inaugural the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) race, so he must feel pretty good this week.
3. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 4) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 5
Power Average: 9.16
Blaney has yet to turn the corner in reference to his finishing positions. He’s run well and that is why he is third in the rankings this week, but something continues to happen to keep him from earning results that are equal to his effort. Blaney is sixth in the points, but it bears noting that three drivers below him have wins.
4. William Byron (Last week: 13) +9
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Wins: 1 (Atlanta 1)
Power Average: 11.23
Five weeks into the 2022, the Power Rankings chart is still volatile, and Byron’s nine-position surge this week comes after he won the first Atlanta lottery after topping every strength-based category we track. A lot of confidence comes with winning early in the season and his Homestead-Miami Speedway win last year contributed to Byron running well for most of 2021.
5. Kyle Larson (Last week: 2) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 5
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 11.61
Larson was the victim of an overly aggressive bump-draft last week at Atlanta and the result was his third DNF in five races. He has the Auto Club Speedway to calm any fears about his position in the standings. No one thinks he won’t begin to climb in the points, but his bad luck is starting to catch the attention of some experts.
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6. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 8) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 5
Power Average: 11.71
Truex typically has bad luck on the carburetor-restricted superspeedways, but he survived with a 13th in the Daytona 500 and a ninth in the QuikTrip 500. Another pair of top-15s in the remaining three races means that Truex is putting together a solid record while he positions himself to score his first win of 2022.
7. Aric Almirola (Last week: 6) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Power Average: 11.79
While carburetor-restricted superspeedway racing does not help predict how drivers will perform, it can have an impact on their season. Instead of restarting his top-10 streak, Almirola had his worst finish at Atlanta since he was 26th last fall at Kansas Speedway. Along with a 12th two weeks ago at Phoenix, Almirola’s days of contending for top-10s on a regular basis may be behind him.
8. Chase Briscoe (Last week: 12) +4
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Power Average: 11.91
Briscoe made his first appearance in the Power Rankings after the Wise Power 400 at Auto Club, but he stumbled and fell with his 35th–place finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Last week’s win in Phoenix brought him partway back and a strong run at Atlanta pushed him into the single digits. He needs another solid performance to continue having his name mentioned with the leaders. Last year he was among the top 10 three times in seven road course races.
9. Kyle Busch (Last week: 3) -6
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Power Average: 12.24
Busch had a succinct response from the pits as he was gearing up to leave Atlanta after sustaining crash damage and retiring early. Asked if he preferred this style of racing, his reply was “nope.” And then he walked away. Losing nine positions in the points and sixth in the Power Rankings underscores just how disappointed he was on a track where he nearly won last fall.
10. Kevin Harvick (Last week: 7) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 2
Power Average: 12.34
Harvick has been around long enough not to allow a carburetor-restricted superspeedway disappointment to affect his season, but a second sub-20th-place finish in the first five races is not doing him any favors. Harvick sits 14th in the points and, with one of the drivers below him with a victory so far this season, that means he is currently only one spot above the playoff bubble.
Dropped from the Top 10
12. Tyler Reddick (Last week: 10) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 12.63
Plate racing can reverse a driver’s fortune in a hurry. Reddick was one of our dark horse picks to win the QuikTrip 500 and for a little while it seemed like a decent enough prediction. An early accident pushed him off the lead lap and virtually guaranteed that he would not perform well in the strength-based categories. His retirement on Lap 245 snapped a two-race, top-10 streak and dropped him out of the Power Rankings top 10.
16. Austin Cindric (Last week: 9) -7
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Daytona 500)
Power Average: 13.84
Last week we predicted that would be the last Cindric saw of the Power Rankings top 10, but we didn’t necessarily think he was going to drop this far down the list. It’s never too early to think about points and currently Cindric is the driver most at risk if there are more than 16 unique winners. On the other hand, no one is dominating the stages, so his five playoff bonus points so far is encouraging.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
QuikTrip 500, Atlanta: William Byron (+1400)
Ruoff Mortgage 500k, Phoenix: Chase Briscoe (+2800)
Pennzoil 400, Las Vegas: Alex Bowman (+2000)
Wise Power 400, Auto Club: Kyle Larson (+360)
Daytona 500, Daytona: Austin Cindric (+2800)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 8.44 | 1 | 0 | |
2. | 9.12 | 5 | 3 | |
3. | 9.16 | 4 | 1 | |
4. | 11.23 | 13 | 9 | |
5. | 11.61 | 2 | -3 | |
6. | 11.71 | 8 | 2 | |
7. | 11.79 | 6 | -1 | |
8. | 11.91 | 12 | 4 | |
9. | 12.24 | 3 | -6 | |
10. | 12.34 | 7 | -3 | |
| ||||
11. | 12.35 | 11 | 0 | |
12. | 12.63 | 10 | -2 | |
13. | 12.86 | 14 | 1 | |
14. | 13.10 | 15 | 1 | |
15. | 13.32 | 17 | 2 | |
16. | 13.84 | 9 | -7 | |
17. | 14.45 | 19 | 2 | |
18. | 15.35 | 18 | 0 | |
19. | 15.43 | 21 | 2 | |
20. | 15.71 | 27 | 7 | |
21. | 16.31 | 20 | -1 | |
22. | 16.60 | 22 | 0 | |
23. | 16.93 | 16 | -7 | |
24. | 17.88 | 24 | 0 | |
25. | 18.86 | 28 | 3 | |
26. | 20.50 | 25 | -1 | |
27. | 20.96 | 26 | -1 | |
28. | 20.96 | 32 | 4 | |
29. | 21.31 | 31 | 2 | |
30. | 21.67 | 29 | -1 | |
31. | 21.80 | 23 | -8 | |
32. | 22.34 | 30 | -2 | |
33. | 23.15 | 34 | 1 | |
34. | 23.38 | 33 | -1 | |
35. | 26.04 | 36 | 1 | |
36. | 26.50 | 37 | 1 | |
37. | 27.85 | 38 | 1 | |
38. | 28.33 | 39 | 1 | |
39. | 29.29 | 42 | 3 | |
40. | 29.50 | 35 | -5 | |
41. | 30.07 | 40 | -1 | |
42. | 30.67 | 41 | -1 | |
43. | 31.47 | 43 | 0 |
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After 2022, Week 1 at Daytona
Week 4 at Phoenix 1
2021, Week 6 at Atlanta
