Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s playing pivotal games between the Nuggets and Lakers, plus the Thunder at the Pelicans.
Thunder (-4.5) at Pelicans: O/U 204.5
The Pelicans turned the ball over 51 times and shot 27.8% (27/97) from three in the first three games of the series, so safe to say there hasn’t been much going for New Orleans.
Jonas Valanciunas was the most impact player for the Pelicans in Games 1 and 2, but after seven points and four rebounds over 12 minutes in Game 3, it is clear Larry Nance Jr. is valued more after OKC figured out how to negate Valanciunas.
OKC won by 32 and 19 points in Games 2 and 3, so I doubt this is much different. I sprinkled a couple of alternate spreads of -13.5 at +290 and -19.5 at +700 for example.
I played OKC -4 at -110 odds and would go out to -5. Let’s cash the 1u +225 sweep (+2.25u) for the Thunder and a +109 ML parlay with the Nuggets to close out their series at home.
Pick: Thunder -4 (1u), Nuggets and Thunder ML Parlay (1u)
Lakers at Nuggets (-7.5): O/U 217.0
Denver blew Game 4’s attempted comeback to complete the sweep, so now the Nuggets have a chance to close out the series at home.
Los Angeles used timely shots to beat Denver, 119-108, as the stat sheet doesn’t quite tell the story of the game. The Lakers have been able to lead at the half and end of the first quarter in all four games during the series, something I am not as confident in here.
The Lakers’ pace has assisted them in gaining these early leads, but fatigue caught up to them in the second half when the game slowed down and became a grind.
Denver was incapable of making stops after getting the game within single digits multiple times during Game 4. I expect a different scheme and plan to limit Anthony Davis on the boards (23 REB in Game 4, 15.8 RPG) and force the Lakers’ role players to step up around LeBron James (27.3 PPG, 8.3 APG, 6.3 RPG).
I grabbed Denver -7.5 at -110 odds and threw them in an ML parlay with OKC for +109 odds. We cash Denver -1.5 (-140) in the series as well with a win tonight or in Game 6 (if necessary).
Pick: Nuggets -7.5 (1u), Nuggets and Thunder ML Parlay (1u)
Season Record: 44-38 (53.6%) +5.54 units
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
Risk 2u: Clippers vs Mavericks Series Over 5.5 Games (-195)
Risk 2u: Cavaliers to win series vs Magic (-184)
Risk 1.5u: Nuggets -1.5 series spread vs Lakers (-140)
1u: Cavaliers to win Game 1 vs Magic and series (-110)
1u: Knicks to win series vs 76ers (-118)
1u: Knicks to win Game 1 vs 76ers and series (+170)
1u: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+300)
1u: Thunder to sweep the Pelicans 4-0 (+225)
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