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The season started with Underdogs turning profits for bettors and Week 7 in the NFL features three home teams laying double-digit points as well as a couple of marquee matchups in the AFC. Will the Underdogs continue to bark or will the favorites bounce back.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) Total: 47
The red-hot Baltimore Ravens put their five-game winning streak on the line vs. the 4-2 Cincinnati Bengals. Back in the spring the look ahead line on this game was Ravens -10. Getting the Ravens at less than a touchdown is a huge value. Baltimore is 3-0 ATS vs. the Bengals in its last three meetings, which were all spreads of 11 points or more. Edge: Ravens -6.5
Washington Football Team vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5) Total: 48.5
PointsBet opened this game up with the Packers as 10-point favorites. That number has since come down to the Packers laying a touchdown with the hook. This is not an ideal number to bet even with the Packers playing a team as bad as the D.C. Football squad. I won’t be taking this to the window, but I would lean with the Packers. Edge: Packers -7.5
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins (+2.5) Total: 47.5
This is an interesting game from a betting standpoint. The Falcons laying 2.5 points is very intriguing until you realize that Atlanta is 4-8 ATS as favorites since 2019. In that same timeframe the Falcons are 9-9 ATS on the road. Money doesn’t grow on trees so picking a side in this game is a challenge. The Total opened up at 48 and has since come down slightly. The Dolphins are 6-4 to the Under in their last 10 home games. Edge: Under 47.5
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (-7) Total: 42.5
A pair of first-round quarterbacks from this year’s draft square off in Foxboro for the first time. However, Zach Wilson and the Jets did already host Mac Jones and the Patriots in Week 2. That game was a 25-6 victory by New England.
This week, the Patriots are seven-point favorites, but I don’t think they are seven points better than anyone -- not even the Jets. All that being said, Bill Belichick has been way too dominant vs. rookie quarterbacks to back the Jets in this game. I can see both teams struggling to put points on the board. In the post-Tom Brady era the Pats are 14-7-1 to the Under. Edge: Under 42.5
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants (+2.5) Total: 44
Earlier this week, I took the Panthers at -2.5 and that number has since moved to Panthers -3. Carolina is on a three-game losing streak, while the Giants only have a single victory on the season. Plus, the Panthers are 8-2 ATS on the road under Matt Rhule and the Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. Edge: Panthers -3
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans (+4.5) Total: 57.5
The Titans scored one of the more impressive victories of the season on Monday night when they knocked off the Buffalo Bills. This week, they host the Chiefs. So far this season road favorites are 21-16 ATS.
It will be interesting to see if there’s any Sunday morning line movement on this game. PointsBet opened this game up with the Chiefs as 5.5 point favorites and that number has since moved down. I can see it moving in the Chiefs’ direction Sunday morning although Kansas City is very tough to back ATS right now. However, the Chiefs have scored 35 points in each of the last two meetings vs. the Titans. Edge: Chiefs Team Total Over 31.5
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-3) Total: 49
The Eagles and Raiders meet up this weekend in what should be a fun contest. Las Vegas is coming off a big win over the Broncos while the Eagles have won two straight games against the spread. Some shops are reporting over 60% of the tickets on this game written on the Raiders, but the line has not gone to 3.5. As matter of fact, it looks like the line may go to Eagles +2.5. I think Philadelphia is a live dog in Vegas this weekend. Edge: Eagles +3
Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams (-16) Total: 50.5
The Rams return home this weekend after beating up on the Giants last weekend. This week the Rams’ opponent may be even worse than the Giants. The Lions have yet to win a game on the Money Line this season, yet they are 3-3 ATS. This is a revenge game for quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff and The Rams should make easy work of the Lions, but I would not bet them ATS this week. The Lions are too scrappy. However, Detroit’s Under has cashed in each of the its last four games. Edge: Under 50.5
Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals (-17.5) Total: 47.5
This is one of three games on the schedule in which the home team is a double-digit favorite. The Cardinals are the team I trust the most in this spot. This season, in games in which the home team was laying 10 or more points, the home team is 6-2 ATS. Edge: Cardinals -17.5
Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.5) Total: 47
The Buccaneers are laying a big number at home this week vs. the Bears. When I first saw this number my initial reaction was to back the Bears. Then I thought about Justin Fields vs. the Buccaneers defense. You can move the ball in the air vs. Tampa but I wouldn’t trust Fields throwing more than 30 passes. Less is more for Fields in the passing game. The Bears run the ball well but the Bucs have a dominant run defense. Edge: Bears Team Total Under 17.5
Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4) Total: 44
The Indianapolis Colts travel to San Francisco this weekend looking for their third win on the season. In one of the more amazing ATS stats, the 49ers are on a 7-game ATS losing streak as home favorites. Now is not the time to get in front of that number. Edge: Colts +4
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