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The main event of the first weekend in 2022 in the Premier League comes on Sunday, when Chelsea host Liverpool in a battle of top-three clubs at Stamford Bridge.
As highly anticipated as that game is, Saturday’s marquee match in London should not go overlooked.
Below you will find an overlay to consider from the contest between Arsenal and Manchester City available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
ARSENAL v. MANCHESTER CITY – DOUBLE CHANCE – ARSENAL OR DRAW (+165)
Given the way Arsenal began their ’21-’22 campaign, it is quite surprising to see Mikel Arteta’s side squarely in the mix for Champions League football next year.
While it is true the Gunners have struggled against the cream of the English crop, they do give off the impression that they are a changed side – specifically since Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s exile from the squad.
In their last five games in all competitions, Arsenal have outscored their opponents 19-2.
Regardless of their opposition, this is a massive number that clearly illustrates the form the team is currently in.
The fear in backing Arsenal on Saturday is twofold.
First, the obvious: anyone who runs into Manchester City at the moment has been surgically dismantled, leading to City’s current eight-point lead in the league.
The second concern relates to the Gunners’ performances against the Premier League’s big clubs to this point.
Against Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool, and Manchester United, Arsenal have gone 0-0-4 while being outscored by a margin of 14-2.
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Perhaps this is a sign that the youngsters of Arsenal are not ready to take on the biggest and best in England, however I am more inclined to view those performances kindly.
Arteta’s current squad looks and plays much differently than they did when they were taking on the big boys earlier in the season.
Accordingly, I am backing Arsenal to either win or draw at Emirates Stadium on Saturday.
Based on my projections, the Gunners either defeat Manchester City or play to a draw over 50% of the time, making their current odds of +165 (implied probability of 37.7%) a generous overlay.
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