Five games are scheduled in the English Premier League on Sunday, with the highlight being the battle between Tottenham and Newcastle United at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.
The game that interests me most from a gambling standpoint takes place at Elland Road, however, with Leeds set to host Fulham.
Below you will find an overlay from this match, with the odds supplied by PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.
Here is the year-to-date results tally:
10-7-2 (57.9%), +6.85 units
LEEDS UNITED v. FULHAM – DOUBLE CHANCE – Fulham or Draw (-131)
The way Fulham has performed in their first season back in England’s topflight since the 2020-2021 season has been impressive over the opening two-and-a-half months.
Marco Silva‘s squad sat in the top-half of the table entering this weekend’s games, securing fifteen points through their first eleven league games.
To be fair, their expected goal differential ranks among the bottom four in the Premier League (-7.3 according to fbref.com), but that stat can be viewed one of two ways.
Either Fulham have gotten lucky and aren’t as good as their current standing would suggest, or they’ve displayed some toughness and mettle that should be celebrated.
I tend to lean toward the latter given their hard-fought battles against the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham this season, but the Cottagers must start answering the bell against the clubs they need to beat to stay out of the relegation zone – teams like Leeds.
Jesse Marsch’s bunch has fallen on hard times following a four-game unbeaten streak in all competitions to start the year, with the Peacocks entering Sunday’s contest now winless in their last seven league matches.
Things have turned so much, in fact, that Marsch’s job could be on the line Sunday.
If the home side doesn’t emerge with all three points, things could get even more uncomfortable for the American manager.
Based on how little they’ve achieved in their last four games leads me to believe things won’t get any better, though.
Leeds have scored a total of one goal over their last four matches and four goals over their last seven, numbers that no team would be capable of overcoming – never mind one the caliber of Leeds.
Fulham have conceded their fair share of goals on the road this year (nine goals allowed in five road matches), but with the way Leeds has performed lately should give Fulham and their supporters hope they can emerge with at least a point at Elland Road on Sunday (if not more).
My numbers indicate that Fulham either wins or plays to a draw 58.2% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -139.
This makes the current price on offer at PointsBet of -131 (implied probability of 56.7%) an overlay, albeit a small one.