FOLLOW ALONG ALL DAY WITH LIVE UPDATES FROM THE 2026 PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL ROUND HERE
The PGA TOUR’s flagship event, The Players’ Championship, tees off Thursday at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL. Golf’s “fifth major” features a 123-player field, the strongest and deepest of any tournament on the calendar.
The Stadium Course remains one of the ultimate tests on the TOUR. Water comes into play on 16 of the 18 holes, including the course’s signature hole, No. 17, which is completely surrounded by water. The course has been lengthened slightly for this year’s tournament. It will play 7,352 yards, with overseeded rye grass and significantly thicker 3.5-inch rough expected to punish drives that stay out of the water but miss the fairways which average just 28 yards across. The tournament historically favors elite ball-strikers as well as those who have enjoyed at least a modicum of success at Sawgrass previously.
Storylines abound but the three biggest revolve around three of the biggest stars on the TOUR:
1) Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy sit atop the world rankings. Each will tee off this week looking to become the first three-time winner in the history of The Players’ Championship. Rare air indeed.
2) Each of the favorites enters the week with question marks. McIlroy has already said he will not arrive at Sawgrass until Wednesday. The strained back that forced him to withdraw from the Arnold Palmer Invitational last weekend has not responded to treatment as quickly as the defending champion had hoped. Scheffler physically is healthy, but his iron play is under the weather. World No. 1 has struggled the last couple of tournaments to control his approach shots.
3) Stars attract eyeballs and no doubt more than a handful will be watching the play of Brooks Koepka. Thursday will mark the first time since 2022 that Koepka has teed it up at The Players Championship. Back on the TOUR after a stint with LIV, the four-time major champion has played the weekend in two of his three tournaments this season but to see Saturday this week, Koepka will need to heat up on the greens. The veteran sits 167th in putting this season.
So how should we bet The Players Championship? As many of you know, betting markets for golf include: outright tournament winner, first round leaders, and 3 ball matchups are the most popular. Individual bets are the standard in golf, but DraftKings does now allow you to parlay multiple markets not unlike what is available to bettors in other sports.
Before placing a wager or two, lets take a look at some stats involving previous winners.
The Players Championship moved to March six years ago. Since that time, the winners have played extremely well in the few weeks leading up to the event the year they won far better than in the weeks leading up to the tournament when it was held in May. Following that data is one route we can take to betting this year’s Players’ Championship.
For instance, each of the last six winners entered the week of The Players in the Top 19 in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. This season, that list includes: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Jake Knapp, Min Woo Lee, Collin Morikawa, Nicolai Hojgaard, Chris Gotterup, Brooks Koepka, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Cam Young, Maverick McNealy, Ryo Hisatsune, Austin Smotherman, Pierceson Coody, and David Ford.
We can pare that list down substantially with a deeper dive that reveals the last six winners also entered the week of the Players’ Championship Top 11 in Shots Gained: Total. Those golfers in 2026 that meet this and the previous requirement are: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Jake Knapp, Min Woo Lee, Collin Morikawa, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Chris Gotterup.
Dive deeper still and we find each of the last six winners entered the week Top 11 in the FedEx Cup Standings. The list of players that reside on each of the three lists is lonely. Only Jake Knapp qualifies.
Not sure I am ready to bet Jake Knapp (+4900) to win The 2026 Players Championship outright just yet. The numbers just seem to point too directly to him. While we ponder that play, though, lets use these lists to attack the Head-to-Head markets.
The 2026 Players’ Championship: Round 1 18-Hole Matchups
Jake Knapp (-118) OVER Maverick McNealy (-112)
For all the reasons noted above, Knapp comes to Sawgrass playing consistently. He is also ranked No. 1 on TOUR with an average Round 1 score of 67.7.
Sepp Straka (-116) OVER Jacob Bridgeman (-112)
Yes, Straka did fire a 77 in the first round at the API, but he finished the week T5. His strokes gained numbers over his last 17 rounds place him 15th on the TOUR (0.696).
Ludvig Aberg (-140) OVER Brooks Koepka (+106)
Yes, Aberg appears to have found his game of late, but this is more a play against Koepka. He is still getting his sea legs under him primarily due to a putter that as we discussed earlier, has not rejoined him on the PGA TOUR. Couple that with at best a checkered history at The Players and Aberg is the guy in Round 1 in this matchup.
In addition to playing those individually, I can parlay the three and the odds (+648) mean a $10 bet yields a return of $58.00.
The 2026 Players’ Championship: Winner
For those looking for outright winners, I do like Sepp Straka (+5400), Collin Morikawa (+2050), and perhaps we sprinkle a little on Ludvig Aberg (+2700). While the course has been lengthened, driver off the tee is still not imperative. Accuracy on approach, though, is a requirement. As noted, Straka ranks eleventh in Shots Gained on Approach. Morikawa is fifth and Aberg is No. 41 after climbing 55 spots following the APU last weekend.
Please remember to always bet responsibly. Do not just throw darts at the board. Do your homework. Research a data-rich marketplace. Listen to experts. Then form your opinions and make your plays.
Enjoy the journey. Lets cash some tickets at The Players Championship.
