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A COVID postponement left us with only a single prop bet across the midweek action and it unfortunately came out a loser.
That, of course, was our Michail Antonio Anytime Goal prop. Despite our correct assumption that Antonio’s West Ham would have multiple cracks at goal, Antonio himself was not on the end of the four West Ham shots that found the Watford net.
But we still head into 2022 with a 17-13-1 overall prop record as we present another pair of prop plays for Matchday 21. As is custom, odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Southampton/Newcastle United Both Teams to Score “Yes” (-130)
It cashed when these sides met at St. James’ Park and I expect it will happen again Sunday at St. Mary’s Stadium.
Let’s start with this - Newcastle can’t defend, especially on the road. They’ve yet to keep a road clean sheet this season and have only held three of nine teams under two goals. Additionally, they were quite lucky at home against Southampton, who generated two goals on 3.6 expected, per fbref.com.
Furthermore, their historical record against the Saints suggests they will have a challenge keeping a clean sheet. The only time Newcastle kept a clean sheet in their last six meetings came after Southampton had a man sent off at the half-hour mark of the game. Plus, Southampton have now managed at least one goal in six straight home matches.
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That said, Newcastle have proven a somewhat reliable offense against teams occupying the bottom-half of the table. In eight such matches, the Magpies have only been held scoreless once (at Aston Villa).
There’s also the fact that, historically, Newcastle has proved quite adept at getting on the board in this fixture. Across the last nine meetings between these sides, Newcastle have only been held goalless twice and have scored two or more goals in four of their last six.
Finally, BTTS has historically had a great percentage in this fixture. Four of the last six and eight of the last 12 meetings have seen both sides get on the scoresheet. Plus, both sides have a great BTTS percentage this season - Southampton 58 percent, Newcastle 68 percent - and the Saints have cashed this market in four of their last five.
As a result, I’ll play this number up to -140.
Best Bet #2 - Mo Salah Anytime Goal (+130) vs. Chelsea
Considering Chelsea’s myriad defensive issues at wing-back, I consider Mo Salah’s anytime goal price in plus-money a modern marvel.
Even though the Egyptian doesn’t have the best goal-scoring record against the Blues - one goal in his last five appearances - I foresee Thomas Tuchel handing Salah a mismatch come Sunday.
Both Reece James & Ben Chilwell will miss out against Liverpool, which means you’ll likely see Marcos Alonso or Callum Hudson-Odoi occupy the left wing-back position for the hosts. With all due respect to those players, I have a hard time envisioning either one keeping up with Salah’s pace.
And despite his goal-scoring record, Salah is getting himself into prime positions against Chelsea’s defense. In the last three head-to-head meetings between these sides in which Liverpool got on the scoreboard, Salah led Liverpool in terms of total xG in two matches.
Additionally, the Egyptian is due for some positive scoring regression as of late. Across his last four fixtures, he’s generated two goals on 3.3 expected, per fbref.com. Included in that data set is a 1.2 xG output against Leicester in the midweek.
The last note I’ll make on Salah is he has a penchant for getting on the board in Liverpool’s biggest fixtures. In five matches against Liverpool’s fellow Super League sides this season, Salah has scored at least once in four and generated 1.0+ xG in three. Of course, the latter stat is slightly flawed by this wondergoal against Manchester City.
Finally, the last element I’m considering here is that this is Salah’s final game before departing for the Africa Cup of Nations and I hope he’ll want to add a goal tally before heading off on international duty.
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