Following a brief international break, the Premier League returns to action this weekend. That means our best bet columns are back!
Our last sides bet column produced a 1-1 result, winning (relatively) easily on a Man City-Tottenham parlay and losing on West Ham’s disappointing home result against Palace.
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That leaves us at 3-3 on the season in this column, with two more plays to come across the entire Matchday Four card.
So with that said, here are my two best side plays for Matchday Four. As always, odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Wolves Moneyline (+125) vs. Watford
Could more misFortune follow Wolves in their visit to Vicarage Road?
Despite posting 57 shots - the third highest team total - so far this Premier League campaign, Wolves have absolutely zilch to show for it.
That is, except for a trio of 1-0 defeats.
Despite all that, Wolves won the expected goal battle last week against Manchester United (2.01-0.66) and virtually tied Tottenham (1.53-1.50) in that department the week prior.
Plus, Wolves have the fifth-best expected-goal differential (xGD) and third-most shot-creating actions in the league, per fbref.com. Even though they’re 18th in the table, their xGD metrics are behind only City, Liverpool, West Ham and Everton.
That tells me Wolves are generating the chances needed to win points, but the bounces simply aren’t going their way. With that mind, I believe this is the perfect time to buy low on Wolves before the market catches up with them.
On the flip side, Watford have yet to win a single match on expected goals, despite claiming three points in their home opener. What’s more is that the Hornets haven’t surpassed one expected goal in any of their opening three matches.
While Watford have won 10 straight home league matches dating back to last season, I can’t see this Wolves side losing four straight, something they’ve never done since joining the EPL in 2017-18.
Finally, there’s good history here for Wolves as well. They’ve won two of the last three against the Hornets and all of the last three on expected goals. Plus, in their last two matches against Watford, Wolves have never allowed more than 0.9 expected goals.
On Saturday, I envision breakout performances from Raúl Jiménez and Adama Traoré to see the visitors claim all three points.
Best Bet #2 - Arsenal Goal-Line (-1) vs. Norwich City (-120)
While it may be the understatement of the century, Arsenal cannot afford to do anything but win this game.
If Mikel Arteta can’t beat Norwich at home following a lengthy international break, he should resign on the spot.
That said, there’s good trends and history that support Arsenal winning all three points Saturday afternoon.
The hosts have scored at least three goals in six of their last seven home meetings with the Canaries, winning six of those meetings.
Plus, it’s been quite some time since the Gunners lost at home to Norwich. The last such occurrence came in August 1992, with their last loss at either venue coming in October 2012.
Those fixtures represent the only two occasions in which the Canaries have walked away with all three points.
While the early metrics are concerning for Arsenal - 0.4 combined xGF against Man City and Chelsea and 1.2 xGF against Brentford - I don’t have much faith in Norwich as a road side.
In their last two top-flight campaigns, Norwich have won a grand total of four road matches, tallying a mere 20 road goals. In their most recent EPL season, Norwich won a single road fixture while scoring seven road goals.
If Norwich are to get a result in this match, I believe they need at least two goals, possibly three. From a metrics standpoint, that’s a tall task for the visitors.
In their last Premier League season, Norwich never generated more than two expected goals in any of their road fixtures, let alone three.
So if they’re able to come out and get a result against Arsenal, tip your cap to ‘em. Otherwise, I think this is the perfect week to buy low on Arsenal against a side they’ve dominated historically.
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