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There’s no denying that corner kick proposition bets are some of my favorite soccer bets to make. Much like player props in the NFL and NBa, they are the softest market to bet in soccer. If you think about, especially in the Premier League, oddsmakers need to make sure their sharpest lines are on sides and totals. Sides and totals are the most common bets, gaining the most handle out of every bet type. The sharper the line, the more even the handle is on both sides.
I wanted to share with you a few things that I look at when scoping the corner market to determine if I am taking an under, over, handicap, or laying off. There are many ways to calculate corner props, and different outlooks on game scripts, but here is how I look at corner markets.
Tactics & Formation:
The first two things I consider are tactics and formations. The best attacking formation is the 4-3-3. Managers like Jurgen Klopp, Pep Guardiola, and Mauricio Pochettino implement a 4-3-3 formation at their clubs. There’s no surprise that the highest corners per games teams in their leagues are managed by those managers.
The 4-3-3 is nice for corners because it allows the forwards to maintain good width. Everything starts with having as many points of contact as possible near the boundaries. When the offense loses possession of the ball, the formation allows for them to quickly press the opponent and transition into a counterattack if necessary. Most teams getting countered in the defending third would live with conceding a corner.
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That’s just one example of a formation you can attack. I love teams that attack a lot and spend a lot of time in their opponents’ side of the pitch. Two important metrics to look at are touches in the attacking third and progressive carries. Generally, when both are high, you have a team who will win a lot of corners. Conversely, you must look at the same metrics for their opponents.
If you have a team that has a lot of touches and carries in the attacking third, against a team who allows a lot of touches and carries, you can look at Team A’s team corner total over or corner handicap depending on how many corners Team B is projected to get.
Taking corner unders could be scary but profitable as well. The tactics for unders are teams who a generally seen as holding or defensive minded teams or teams who don’t mind absorbing pressure. Lastly, teams who are just outmatched and will get dominated in the possession and shot battle. You must still do your due diligence and see how many corners the teams are averaging.
Here’s an example from a match on how to look at corners. Inter Milan took on Venezia over the weekend. They were -4.5 on the corner handicap market. Inter are third in attacking third touches and Venezia are dead last. Inter average six won corners per match against a team who is allowing six per match. Inter will live in Venezia’s defensive third and own the possession battle. There’s value in taking -4.5, because Venezia won’t have many possessions in Inter Milan’s area. This limits the amount of shots, crosses and opportunities for corners. The final corner tally was Inter Milan six, Venezia, zero.
Personnel:
Personnel is also very important. Some forwards like to play down the boundary line. Those who are very talented dribbling don’t mind trying to gain an advantage down the boundary. Without going too deep down the rabbit hole, there are different kinds of forwards. There are some that prefer service sooner. They are skilled enough with their head where you might see crosses come in, but they would prefer the ball at their feet. This to me, kills corners a lot more.
I’d prefer to attack teams when they switch personnel to bring in a playmaking forward. Using Chelsea as an example; Timo Werner is a great focal point for corner prop overs. Romelu Lukaku I’d consider a target man. He plays a lot with the back to the net and wants service at his feet. When Werner plays, he tries to use his creativity to make things happen. He shots and dribbles in volume. Giving more opportunities for deflections out of bounds.
It’s also important to know which kind of midfield player they are fielding. A holding mid or attacking mid. Also, think about who’s playing on the wings. If you have an athletic wing back who wants to create, you might get quite a few chances at corners. Pay attention to lineup changes from game to game too. Tired legs on the defense results in a lot of sloppy clearances. We take anything that’s free.
Stats, Trends & Head-to-Head History:
DATA! It’s your friend. To start the season, it’s always difficult to see how teams are trending in the corner market. After about a month, you should have enough data to make educated guesses or build a computer model if you know how. I use multiple websites to track corners for and against with home and away splits. A few that I use are Windrawwin, Statsdontlie, FootyStats, and more. For possession, shots, and deflection stats a few websites I use are, Footystats, FBRef, WhoScored, and more. Those should be more than enough to get you on your way.
You can rely on trends for corner stats. I also like to use head-to-head history to determine how the teams play each other. Some teams who play open often could play tight and hold more in derbies or against specific opponents. Vice Versa, you could see holding teams open up against certain opponents.
There’s so much more that I could ramble on about that helps corner prop selections. This list is a good starting point if you’re interested in dipping your toe in that market. This is my strategy, which might be vastly different than someone else. Regardless of your strategy, the corner market is soft. You should consider hitting it if you have the time.
