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Last week we backed Leeds United on the Moneyline and Everton to Win or Draw, and both were a bust for very different reasons.
Jesse Marsch’s ‘new manager bounce’ inspired Leeds to a brilliant performance generating 1.9 xG from 19 attempts on goal to Leicester City’s 0.5 xG from 7 attempts. Raphinha missed a guilt-edged chance on 60 minutes, and seven minutes later, the play was over when Harvey Barnes made it 1-0 to The Foxes against the run of play.
We backed Everton on the logical assumption that Frank Lampard would instruct his backline to sit deep, be compact, defend and frustrate Tottenham as they did against Manchester City. For some unknown reason, Lampard deployed a suicidal disjointed high line against an attack who thrive off space in behind. Spurs took full advantage cutting through The Toffees defense time and time again to record a 5-0 victory,
This column’s record stands at 2-2, and I have one Underdog play for you to consider this weekend. Looking at the fixtures and lines, I don’t see value backing one of the Underdogs to win or draw in the Double Chance market. Watford looks like the best option at +135, but I don’t feel confident enough considering how strong Southampton are at St. Mary’s.
All stats are taken from FBREF.com, and odds are taken from Pointsbet and reflective at the time of writing.
Manchester United vs. Tottenham (Saturday, 12:30 PM EST, Live on NBC)
Manchester United and Tottenham need three points to keep their Top 4 dreams alive. Arsenal -176 are the current favorites to qualify for the UEFA Champions League. The Gunners have a one-point lead and three games in hand on United +400, and a three-point lead and one game in hand on Spurs +270.
In the Premier League (PL), the hosts have been solid at Old Trafford, recording 7W-3D-4L, scoring 21 goals from 23.5 xG, and conceding 16 from 15.9 xGA. In early December, the club turned to Ralf Rangnick, and his record at home is 4W-2D-1L, scoring eight goals from 12.7 xG and conceding three from 5 xGA.
Spurs have a similar record on the road in the PL, with 6W-2D-5L scoring 17 goals from 19.2 xG and conceding 17 from 14.7 xGA. They landed Antonio Conte in November, and his away record is 4W-2D-2L, scoring 12 goals from 14.3 xG and conceding eight from 8.4 xGA.
Looking at the stats, Rangnick has significantly improved United’s defense at home, reducing their average goals conceded per game from 1.85 to 0.42 and xGA per game from 1.55 to 0.71. However, last week we all witnessed United’s defensive shortcomings against Manchester City, and Luke Shaw and Raphael Varane’s absence added to their misery. The pair tested positive for COVID-19 and have a 50% chance of playing on Saturday per PremierInjuries.com.
Antonio Conte has Spurs firing on the road in the final third, increasing their average goals per game from 1.0 to 1.71 and xG per game from 0.9 to 2.04. The front three, Harry Kane (five goals, one assist), Heung-Min Son (two goals, two assists), and Dejan Kulujevski (two goals, three assists), have been involved in nine of their last 12 goals.
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Three-way Moneyline: Manchester United (+108) | Draw (+250) | Tottenham (+235)
Looking at the stats and lines, the value is with Tottenham. I trust Kane, Son, and Kulujevski maintaining their form way more than Harry Maguire, Victor Lindelof, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, and Alex Telles rediscovering theirs. If Rangnick wants to freshen up the defense, he has Diogo Dalot, Eric Bailly, and Phil Jones as options.
There is a 50% chance Shaw and Varane will recover from COVID-19 in time. I fully support those who wait for team news or lineups to be released before placing the bet. Tottenham’s line already dropped from +265 to +235 in response to their 5-0 win over Everton. I don’t think we will see any more significant movement between now and kick-off.
Back Tottenham to get the three points and end United’s Top 4 hopes.
Betting Tip: Tottenham Moneyline +235
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