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The Premier League season has returned, and so has your chance to cash in big.
The free-to-play Premier League Pick ‘Em contest made its return in the NBC Sports Predictor app along with the new EPL season and continues this week with a new slate of five games.
Each matchday, participants are given five Premier League contests in which they attempt to predict the final score of each fixture. If a player nails all five scores correctly, they can walk away with a cold $50,000 jackpot!
Even if no entry correctly picks the five scores perfectly, there’s still a weekly guarantee of $1,000 in prizes for players with the top overall scores.
Here’s a look at the five matchups selected for this week’s contest, as well as our prediction of the eventual outcome.
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Matchup #1 - Everton vs. Newcastle United
Analysis: This fixture is a must-win for Everton to get some breathing room from the relegation zone, but that doesn’t mean they will win. Newcastle are coming off a disappointing loss to Chelsea over the weekend, but they’ve played well against teams that like to press since Eddie Howe took over. In three matches against top pressing sides, Newcastle have won all three. That said, they’ve also conceded at least once in all three of those fixtures while there have been at least four combined big scoring chances in those matches. Go for Newcastle to get back to their winning ways here.
Prediction: Newcastle 2, Everton 1
Matchup #2 - Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Leeds United
Analysis: These sides were equal when they met at Elland Road, but Jesse Marsch has Leeds playing better as of late. In three matches under the American, Leeds own a +1.7 expected goal differential. However, they own a -3 goal differential in reality. The motivation for this match rests solely with the Peacocks as there’s little left to play for from Wolves’ perspective. Given Wolves have struggled of late offensively - they’ve created under one expected goal in four straight and seven of their last 10 - expect another low-scoring contest between these sides. With some positive regression potentially coming for the visitors, I’ll call for a share of the points.
Prediction: Wolves 1, Leeds 1
Match #3 - Aston Villa vs. Arsenal
Analysis: This feels like a terrible spot for Arsenal, who will be coming off a 2-0 defeat in the midweek to Liverpool and now have to travel to face an improved Villa attack. In their last five Premier League outings, Villa have produced at least one expected goal each time and nearly 1.6 expected goals per 90 minutes, 0.45 xG/90 higher than their season-long average. That said, Arsenal’s attack has played extremely well as of late too. Entering Wednesday’s fixture against Liverpool, Arsenal had posted two or more expected goals in three of the last four and at least one xG in 10 straight. Against a rested Villa, though, I think you’ll see goals at both ends in a high-scoring draw.
Prediction: Aston Villa 2, Arsenal 2
Match #4 - Tottenham vs. West Ham
Analysis: Tottenham turned in a great performance at Brighton in the midweek, which means they’ll probably crumble as favorites here. That said, all the metrics point to the hosts in this contest. Since Antonio Conte took over, Spurs are 5-2-1 (W-L-D) at home and have created at least 1.5 expected goals in all eight of those fixtures. As for West Ham, their road form has left a lot to be desired recently as they’ve lost the xG battle in four straight away from home. This also sets up as a good revenge spot for Tottenham, who dropped all three points in the reverse leg. Further, West Ham are due for a sizable amount of negative road regression as they own a -2.8 xGDiff on a +5 road goal differential. For those reasons, go for Tottenham to get a second straight win.
Prediction: Tottenham 2, West Ham 1
Match #5 - Leicester City vs. Brentford
Analysis: If I’ve said it once, I’ll say it 1,000 times - Brentford are terrible away from home. The Bees own the 12th-best road expected goal differential while the 10th-best at home. They’re also conceding north of 1.5 xG/90 on the road, a mark that is 0.2 xG/90 higher than their season-long average. But, I do want to find a way to account for their recent offensive performances as they’re averaging nearly two xG/90 in their last two. However, Leicester have played quite well at home offensively, creating at least 1.5 expected goals in three of their last four at the King Power Stadium. Further, in five home fixtures against the bottom-half, the Foxes have created north of two expected goals in four. With that in mind, go for a high-scoring Leicester victory Sunday.
Prediction: Leicester City 3, Brentford 2
