The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
If you’re looking at this match on paper, Villarreal have more of a chance than the pre-game punditry suggests.
The Yellow Submarine arrive at the final in Gdansk with a 12-2-0 record in the Europa League this season and a manager who has won Europe’s secondary competition three times.
[[ad:athena]]
Plus, history suggests that Villarreal have another advantage. In the last three Europa League Finals between Spanish and English sides, the Spanish sides are a perfect 3-0 in those matches.
With all that said, Villarreal enters Wednesday’s final as the underdog at PointsBet Sportsbook. Opponents Manchester United are favored at -120 on their moneyline, while a draw is +240 and Villarreal are +360 (note: all prices are for 90 minutes + injury time).
In the “to lift the cup” market, the Red Devils are a heavy -250 favorite while Villarreal are a +200 underdog.
For opponents Manchester United, a win would mark their first major trophy in four years after winning the Europa League in 2017 while under José Mourinho.
Victory for United would also make them the third English side to lift the trophy in the last five years.
The one trend that could be disconcerting to United backers is this: teams to drop out of the Champions League and reach the Europa League final that same season are a disappointing 4-6 when battling a team that made its way through the secondary competition.
Match Betting Analysis
I’m of the belief that United should win this match. What I don’t know is if they’ll do it after 90 minutes are up or if it will take extra time.
It’s been seven years since a Europa League Final has gone to extra time, though, so if you’re looking for a pre-game play, I like the Manchester United Moneyline (-120).
Although Villarreal have a more impressive record than United, I’m of the opinion that United have assembled a more talented side, even without Harry Maguire. Plus, the fact a majority of those players were rested Sunday gives them an extra leg up.
Secondly, United dispatched two Spanish sides on their way to the final -- Real Sociedad and Granada. In those four matches, United never conceded once and won three of four with the last being a 0-0 draw.
Finally, I found United’s path to the final to be significantly more difficult compared to Villarreal’s and that the Yellow Submarine’s Europa record may be slightly deceiving to the eye.
If you’re opposed to laying a price before the match gets underway, but agree United is the play, there is another strategy to consider. That would be to bet the Draw Moneyline (+240) pre-game and wait until the match gets underway to hopefully bet United live at a plus-money price. Unless Villarreal wins the match after 90 minutes, you’ll come out in the green.
One other play I’m a fan of for this match is Both Teams to Score (-115). Since the Red Devils lost captain Maguire to injury on May 9th, they’ve yet to keep a clean sheet. Plus, United had the top BTTS percentage in the Premier League this season.
Plus, Villarreal have only been held goalless in the Europa League once this season and, like United, had the best BTTS percentage in their domestic league this season.
Finally, across the last six Europa League Finals, four have seen both teams score.
If Maguire does miraculously find his way back into the Starting XI on Wednesday, I would stay away from this market entirely. However, Solsjkaer said in a pre-match press conference he “didn’t have high hopes” about his captain’s possible return.
My final play for this match will be Manchester United to Score First (-155). Even though the Red Devils have only won five matches outright since dropping down to the Europa League, they’ve scored the first goal all seven times in matches with at least one goal.
If you’re more of a prop market person, there are a few plus-money value plays that stand out.
I’m first looking at Edinson Cavani Anytime Goalscorer (+150). In the three Europa League matches he’s started, Cavani has scored at least once every time and has scored twice in two of those matches.
Also worth a look is Bruno Fernandes to Score + Manchester United to Win (+260). In the three matches against Spanish opposition that produced goals, Fernandes registered a tally in two of those matches. Plus, when Fernandes registers a goal, United are 16-3-3 in all competitions this season.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
