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In relation to the Tuesday EPL action, Wednesday is decidedly more...lackluster.
Put Liverpool-Burnley aside and you’re left with five matches that really shouldn’t have an impact on team placement in the final table.
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But that doesn’t mean we’re going to turn our noses up and wait until Sunday to spend a chunk of the bankroll.
Rather, we’re going to fully embrace the betting options for these games and try to load up in advance of ten simultaneous games Sunday morning.
As always, all odds come from our friends at PointsBet Sportsbook.
Match One: Everton vs. Wolverhampton - Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET
Everton are the sixth-worst home team in the EPL this season. Wolves are the sixth-worst EPL road team this season.
What does that mean? Bet against anything eventful happening in this game!
Historically, this fixture has produced goals since Wolves were promoted to the Premier League. Both Teams to Score has cashed in four of the last five and all of the last five have gone over 2.5 goals. Plus, three of the last five have gone over 3.5 goals.
So naturally the first place I’m looking is Under 2.5 Goals (-135).
Expect Wolves to come out and defend at all costs given their injury concerns in attack. All of Daniel Podence, Pedro Neto and Owen Otasowie will be out for this match. And having last played on Sunday, Nuno Espirito Santo may look to restore Rúben Neves, Willy Boly, Max Kilman and Rayan Ait-Nouri to the Starting XI.
The theme there? All are much more defensive-minded players than their counterparts who played Sunday against Tottenham.
Wolves also have some positive under trends recently, as all four straight and five of their last six road fixtures have gone under.
Finally, Everton and Wolves are 17th and 18th, respectively, in terms of games played to over 2.5 goals.
One alternate approach to this match I also like is using the juice on Under 3.5 Goals and combining it with the Tottenham Moneyline in a two-leg parlay (+115).
Combine the aforementioned total statistics with the fact that Tottenham are the second-best EPL home team this year and I think you’re getting a good price.
Match Two: Tottenham vs. Aston Villa - Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET
For this match in particular, I’m going to choose to set aside all the main wagers -- sides, totals, etc. -- and take a different path.
When you look at Tottenham’s home record, there’s simply no way of ignoring their quality. If you’re willing to lay -200, I like the price on the Spurs Moneyline.
However, my first bet in this fixture is going to be for the Second Half to be the Highest Scoring Half (-103).
At home this season, Spurs have tallied 34 goals while conceding 18. Of all those 52 goals, 54 percent have come in the second half.
Examine Villa’s road record this season -- 24 goals for, 18 goals against -- and you’ll find that 57 percent of those 42 goals have come in the second half.
Another element to consider is that Villa could potentially get Jack Grealish back into the Starting XI. If that happens, I think you’ll see relatively even possession to start the match with more wide open play coming in the latter stages.
One more play I’m also looking at is Harry Kane Anytime Goalscorer (-137). Some bettors may be turned off by this given the Kane transfer news from this week, but there’s good history here.
Kane has scored seven goals in his last six appearances and in four consecutive meetings against Villa. Plus, Kane is in the heart of the Golden Boot race -- an award he hasn’t claimed since the 2016-17 season -- so I believe he’ll relish the chance to try and put himself ahead of Mo Salah with one game to play.
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