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In the final group stage game for both teams, Spain will face Canada in a Group A Women’s Olympic Basketball matchup tonight at 9:00 pm ET. The spread is Spain -4.5 at PointsBet Sportsbook with a Money Line of -220, and the Total is set at 140.5. Let’s analyze both teams to see which squad will come out with a win.
Spain:
Spain, ranked third in the FIBA Women’s World Rankings, already clinched a spot in the quarterfinals after winning their first two matches against South Korea and Serbia. Spain couldn’t cover the spread in their first game as 23.5-point favorites in an eventual four-point win over South Korea, but they broke away in the second half of their subsequent match against Serbia, winning outright as slight underdogs. Even though they already qualified for the quarterfinals, the Spanish team still has plenty of motivation to finish the group stage undefeated. Spain came into the Tokyo Olympics looking to rebound from a disappointing performance at the FIBA Women’s EuroBasket tournament last month in Valencia. Despite playing in their home country, Spain finished seventh and now need an Olympic Gold Medal to qualify for the next FIBA World Cup. This poor showing can be partially explained by the team playing without their best scorer Alba Torrens, who has since returned from her COVID-related absence.
The Spanish team is led by Torrens and Astou Ndour, a 6-foot-5 center who plays for the WNBA’s Chicago Sky. Ndour has averaged 24 points and 9.5 boards in Spain’s first two games, while Torrens put up 25 points in the win over Serbia. The team was locked in a tight match against Serbia before Maite Carzola broke the game open with a three-point barrage. Carzola, a guard for the WNBA’s Atlanta Dream, scored 17 points off the bench and converted five of her six three-point attempts against Serbia, including four in the third quarter alone. The team also has a strong defense spurred by forward Laura Gil, who managed to grab 14 rebounds against South Korea.
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Canada:
Canada, the fourth-ranked team in the FIBA Women’s World Rankings, needs a win over Spain to guarantee a quarterfinal berth. Depending on the results of other matches and the final point-differential tiebreaker, a loss would likely send the Canadian team to the next round as a wildcard, if they make it at all. Canada rebounded from an opening loss to Serbia with a convincing 74-53 victory over South Korea.
Bridget Carleton led Canada with 18 points in the win against South Korea. The former Big 12 Women’s Basketball Player of the Year is crucial to the Canadians’ hopes of earning a medal in Tokyo. Canada lacks a true lead facilitator, but Carleton stepped up with four assists against South Korea. Natalie Achonwa, Carleton’s teammate with the WNBA’s Minnesota Lynx, put up a double-double with 14 points and 10 rebounds in her last game. The team limited their turnovers in the win and continued to rebound well, but star guard Kia Nurse is still struggling to find her shot in Tokyo. Nurse, a great defender who averages almost 10 points per game with the WNBA’s Phoenix Mercury this season, shot only 31% from the field through two Olympic matches.
Neither team is particularly strong from beyond the arc, with both Spain and Canada converting on under 30% of their three-point attempts in Tokyo, but a look at the percentages shows an advantage for Spain. Canada struggles to hit free throws and shoots under 70% from the line. This flaw emerged in the team’s loss to Serbia when they missed eight of their 23 freebies in a tight four-point defeat. Canada’s rebounding prowess might be undermined against a Spain team that racked up 24 offensive boards on their way to out-rebounding South Korea 48-30 in the team’s opening match.
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Prediction:
Both teams have strong defenses and questionable shooting, so this could be a good spot to target the under. However, my best bet for this Olympic Women’s Basketball match is Spain to cover as 4.5-point favorites. I think the inconsistency of Canada’s playmaking and free-throw shooting will hinder their ability to score against Spain’s stout defense, while Ndour and the Spaniards should be able to limit Canada on the offensive glass.
EDGE:
Spain -4.5
