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The North American hardcourt swing continues this week in Cincinnati, where we’re on to our second Masters 1000 in as many weeks. This tournament will offer a bundle of prize money and ranking points, and will also serve as the primary warmup for the U.S. Open in two weeks. With plenty of fun sure to ensue, let’s make some picks.
Christian Garin (+120) vs. Tommy Paul (-148)
This is one of those matches where I understand why oddsmakers have to set the line they set, but I’m just not feeling it.
On one hand we have clay-court specialist Christian Garin, who has lost eight out of his last 10 hardcourt matches and hasn’t opted to play very much on the other two surfaces in the last couple of years, or very much at all. He’s a player who hasn’t really rounded into form at all this season due to the sporadic schedule, and that’s hurt his ability to develop the all-surface game many thought he would.
Then, we have Tommy Paul, whose effort is almost always in question. There’s no doubt that Paul has a crafty game and can take down some of the very best in the game on his talent alone, but his long lapses at time this year make him hard to trust.
So, we land on this line, with Paul a relatively short favorite on a surface where Garin is almost never given a fair chance like this. At this price, we’re going to have to take a stab on Paul.
Not only is Garin out of form with just one match since leaving the clay in July, which was a loss last week in Toronto to John Isner, Paul is beginning to find his at the right time. With the bigger tournaments — the Masters 1000s — Paul has looked engaged and motivated by the ranking points and bigger paydays, qualifying last week and beating Vasek Pospisil before falling to the master, Roberto Bautista-Agut. He qualified once again in Cincinnati with two wins over good competition, dispatching Soon-Woo Kwon and Tennys Sandgren in a three-setter.
I’d say Kwon and Sandgren are both better hardcourt players than Garin, and almost every one of Paul’s matches have come against better hardcourt players. With the mood he’s in, he should be able to keep Garin on the baseline and put him away with his flat backhand.
Edge: Paul -148
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Aslan Karatsev (-132) vs. Marin Cilic (+108)
My constant selections of Aslan Karatsev have become a meme at this point, but I really do think this is a fantastic price and a great speculative play.
Let’s look at the matchup first and foremost. Marin Cilic is a tall, powerful and imposing threat who is a hard worker but gets easily worn down in long rallies. He can be reliant on his serve a lot of times, and he’s not a very good returner. Karatsev, on the other hand, could be one of the best returners in the game right now, getting almost everything back into play and generating a bundle of break chances. While his performance on break point has been abysmal all year, Cilic’s tendency to get tight in the big moments should help Karatsev break his serve plenty. Another area the Russian can get beaten is on his serve, but he not only seems better in that department but will also go against an aforementioned weak returner.
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Next, we need to see how these two players enter Cincinnati, considering that on paper Karatsev would probably be a heavier favorite. The Russian has yet to regain that early-season magic which shot him into the top 30, winning seven out of his last 10 matches, but there’s a lot of context needed.
While his performances on the clay were inexcusable, he’d never played on grass before (and probably isn’t very well-equipped to do so anyway), making it easier to process some of those mid-summer losses. He did get bounced in the second round of the Olympics, but went on to win the Silver medal in doubles.
Karatsev has been playing some better tennis over his last few matches and probably would have taken down Karen Khachanov had he not been dealing with severe jet lag coming from Tokyo. He just seemed a little bit off in that match, but still fought hard and returned well.
I expect Karatsev to get right here against Cilic, who has suddenly lost three of five and appears to be losing some of the confidence he had a month ago. His returning should make the difference.
Edge: Karatsev -132
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