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We are on to the third round of Indian Wells, and the action is really starting to heat up now. With big names being pitted against big names, we are seeing more toss-up matches and thrilling action. I’ve got a couple of ways to get in on the fun and will share them now.
Jenson Brooksby (+150) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (-189)
It appears Stefanos Tsitsipas fooled us all into thinking he was back in form when he took out Jannik Sinner in a brilliant match at the Australian Open. Since then, the Greek has shown none of the sharpness that made him a finalist at Roland Garros last year and has been incredibly inconsistent with his play.
He is fresh off a match where he did not cover the spread against Jack Sock, which is the latest in a long line of close calls. He nearly lost to qualifier Jiri Lehecka in Rotterdam before getting run over in the final, he lost to Roman Safiullin (yikes!) and narrowly edged Laslo Djere in Acapulco before taking out JJ Wolf — who was nervous in the biggest match of his live — quite easily in the second round and earning public favor once again. The truth is, he played a lackluster match against Marcos Giron — who nearly stole a set — and then lost academically to Cameron Norrie.
So, the close win over Sock — where he needed to save two match points in a third-set tiebreak — isn’t some fluke result. It’s a representation of how shakily this guy is playing right now. While Jenson Brooksby is still very inexperienced, he is not a player who is going to give Tsitsipas many unforced errors like Sock did. The uncharacteristic misses off the racquet of Tsitsipas are going to haunt him here, and I don’t believe he should be favored this heavily.
Edge: Brooksby +150
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Nick Kyrgios (+102) vs. Casper Ruud (-125)
At long last, we have the revenge match between Kyrgios and Ruud. The two met at the Italian Open back in 2019, when Kyrgios was defaulted after throwing a chair onto the court and leaving the premises.
While many have revisionist history about this (myself included) and feel that it was Ruud’s great play which caused Kyrgios to ultimately get upset and take it out on a fan in the stands, it’s important to remember that Kyrgios showed some brilliance in that match. Though he’s not a great clay court player — and that’s Ruud’s speciality — he did manage take the second set in a tiebreak and was actually up a break in the third before he failed to consolidate at 1-0 and was disqualified immediately after.
These surfaces are very clay-like in Indian Wells which would seem to favor Ruud, but it’s not as if the World No. 8 had a great time here last year, getting bounced pretty easily by Diego Schwartzman after a close call against Lloyd Harris in the second round. He also started this tournament out rather shakily, needing to scratch and claw to beat Chris Eubanks, who is far inferior.
Kyrgios may not have the game — on paper — to succeed at Indian Wells, but he’s adapted quite well. He has some good kick on his forehand and has chosen to hit it high and slow to the back of the court, which has helped him destroy a couple of pesky opponents — Sebastian Baez and Federico Delbonis — in quick succession.
Kyrgios has gone to the quarterfinal of Indian Wells and he’s even beaten Novak Djokovic here. Given his history at the tournament and the easy wins he’s picked up already in 2022, there should be no further concerns over his ability to play on these courts. I think this line is close for a reason, and I see Ruud as a big trap at this price. I’ll be backing Kyrgios, who looks energized, fit and focused.
Edge: Kyrgios +100
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