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After another day without games yesterday, WNBA action resumes with two matchups Saturday, including an 8 pm ET tip between the Washington Mystics and Minnesota Lynx. PointsBet Sportsbook lists the Lynx as -7.5 point home favorites with a Total of 159. Thursday was a disappointing 1-2 night, but with only one day without games until the end of the regular season, I’m looking to finish strong and improve on my 10-7 (58%) WNBA picks record.
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota is currently 17-9 with a half-game deficit separating them from the Seattle Storm in the chase for the third seed. The Mystics own a 10-16 record but still have a chance to make the playoffs, as Washington holds a half-game lead over the New York Liberty for the eighth and final playoff spot entering Saturday. The Sparks are also looming, sitting just one game behind the Mystics for the eighth seed, so each game matters for Washington down the stretch.
Washington’s last game was a 10-point defeat to the Sun on Tuesday, but that loss came without both of the team’s stars and one could return tonight. Tina Charles, the league’s leading scorer this season, is listed questionable tonight after missing the last four games with an injury. Mystics coach Mike Thibault told Kareem Copeland of the Washington Post that Charles joined the team for the trip to Minnesota and he hopes she can play.
Charles leads the league in average points in the paint and is on pace to set a new single-season record for points per game, as her scoring average of 25.4 points barely exceeds Diana Taurasi’s 2006 record of 25.3 points per game. Coach Thibault understands the importance of the team’s final six matchups starting tonight, and there is no time to rest Charles if the risk of re-injury is low. A gluteal strain is far less problematic than the back injury nursed by former MVP Elena Delle Donne.
Delle Donne will miss the matchup with Minnesota due to the aforementioned back injury, but Washington played most of the season without Delle Donne, including the last time these two met. The Mystics will also be without forward Myisha Hines-Allen tonight, but should have enough forward depth to overcome the loss if Charles is active.
The most recent matchup between these teams came on June 8 in an 85-81 win for the Mystics at home. Charles carried the team in the victory, scoring 31 points, including four in the final minute of the game. That contest was one of only five losses for Minnesota with Layshia Clarendon in the lineup. Along with power forward Damiris Dantas, Clarendon will miss tonight’s game for the Lynx due to injury.
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Minnesota started the season 0-4 before winning 15 of 20 games following Clarendon’s debut on May 30. Clarendon missed the last two games with a leg ailment and while the Lynx won the first two games without Clarendon, their absence will be difficult to overcome against the Mystics. Minnesota owns a +10.2 pace-adjusted net rating with Clarendon on the floor, almost 5 points per 100 possessions higher than any other Lynx player with more than 10 minutes played this year.
The Lynx will miss Clarendon in tonight’s game, but the loss of Damiris Dantas forces Minnesota to fill an even larger hole for this particular matchup, as the forward was likely to serve as the primary defender on Charles. Minnesota looked like a team that could break into the upper echelon of title contenders before Dantas suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury, in addition to minor setbacks for Clarendon and Sylvia Fowles this week. Fowles missed one game with her shoulder injury but returned with 15 points and 17 rebounds in Thursday’s win against the Sparks.
Fowles is the well-deserved front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year, but she is best in an off-ball help role defensively where she can stay near the paint and avoid being drawn out to guard quicker players on the perimeter. While Fowles grades in the 99th percentile of players against opposing post-ups in Synergy’s Points Per Possession (PPP) allowed, the future Hall-of-Famer ranks in the 26th percentile of overall defensive PPP allowed. This below-average ranking is largely due to mediocre defense against spot-up possessions (43rd percentile of PPP allowed) and lackluster metrics against opponents’ pick-and-roll (3rd percentile of PPP allowed).
That’s where Dantas fit into Minnesota’s defense, as she ranked in the 75th percentile of overall defensive PPP allowed and the 85th percentile of lowest PPP conceded against spot-up possessions. Dantas also graded in the 95th percentile defending opponents off of screens before her injury. Lineups with both Dantas and Fowles on the floor averaged 6.7 blocks per 100 possessions, a mark that is higher than the team’s average of five blocks per 100 possessions and would rank second in the WNBA this season behind only the Mercury.
Defending shooters and rollers will be especially important against Washington, as the Mystics used the second-highest rate of spot-up shots (27% of the team’s offense) and third-highest rate of pick-and-roll rollers (6.7%) on the team’s possessions this season. Washington was especially efficient using Tina Charles as a roller, as the Mystics scored the third-most PPP from pick-and-roll rollers and Charles accounted for 44.6% of those possessions.
Olympic gold medalist Ariel Atkins ranks second on the team with 15.4 points per game and is considered among the best perimeter stoppers in the league. While Atkins has a tough matchup in Kayla McBride, who ranks as the most efficient qualified player in Synergy’s overall offensive PPP this year, Washington’s ace defender should be up to the task. Atkins swiped the fourth-most steals so far this season after ranking in the top 10 for steals while being selected to the WNBA All-Defense team during each of her first three seasons in the league.
Natasha Cloud is another strong option as a perimeter defender if Atkins needs to rest or shoulder a bigger offensive burden. The veteran point guard swiped 1.1 steals per game this season and while averaging 7.5 points per game. Cloud is the only Washington starter besides Delle Donne without a negative on-court net rating this season.
No team allows a higher PPP mark in transition than the Lynx this season. While the Mystics aren’t usually a team that thrives in fast-break situations, Washington is adept at taking advantage of opposing turnovers and Minnesota allows opponents to score 22.3 points off turnovers per 100 possessions without Clarendon on the floor, higher than the team’s averages with Clarendon active. This is where Atkins can thrive in this matchup, as she leads the league with 4.7 points off turnovers per game. Washington’s mid-season pickup, Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, also helped the team in transition, as the guard ranked in the 89th percentile of overall offensive PPP and the 82nd percentile of transition PPP this year.
Minnesota does have Aerial Powers back for this game after she missed the first matchup against Washington. However, Powers may not help the Lynx prevent turnovers, as the fifth-year wing committed the second-most giveaways per game through her first eight appearances of the season.
I’ll be watching the injury report closely, as I wouldn’t play the Mystics inside +8 if Charles is out, but I’ll be backing the spread if Charles plays. Washington’s perimeter advantage combined with some key injuries and poor matchups for the Lynx suggests the Mystics can replicate the team’s success from June 8 and stay within eight points or even win by using Charles as a roller.
EDGE: Washington Mystics +7.5 (if Charles is active)
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