The countdown to the start of the WNBA regular season on May 6 is down to single-digit days and teams are already beginning to cut down towards their final rosters. Even after the rosters are finalized, there are plenty of questions that will need to be answered for each team to reach their potential this season. I looked at each team and picked out the most important lineup question that will impact the playoff and title chances for their squads, along with a fantasy angle for those looking for an edge in their league this season. Let’s start with the top half of the league in terms of championship odds at PointsBet Sportsbook, with Part 2 coming later this week.
Las Vegas Aces (+325): Will Dearica Hamby move into the starting lineup?
The Las Vegas Aces enter the season with the league’s best championship odds under new head coach Becky Hammon despite losing All-Star center Liz Cambage. The Aces retained backup center Kiah Stokes but Hammon could choose to shift 2020 MVP A’ja Wilson to center to improve the team’s spacing since Las Vegas ranked last in the league for three-point attempts in every season since 2017.
Dearica Hamby is a two-time Sixth Woman of the Year winner and made the All-Star game for the first time last season, so the Aces could slot Hamby into the starting lineup while playing Wilson at center. ESPN projects Hamby to finish as the #47 player in fantasy, but she could outperform her ranking if she starts at power forward next to Wilson. Las Vegas will need to figure out the frontcourt situation to live up to the team’s billing as championship favorites
Chicago Sky (+350): Will Emma Meesseman help improve the non-Big Three minutes?
The Sky added former WNBA Finals MVP Emma Meesseman in free agency this offseason to replace Stefanie Dolson, who signed with the Liberty in free agency. The reigning champions outscored opponents by 5.05 points per 100 possessions with Dolson on the court, compared to a -0.21 net rating when playing without Dolson. Meesseman will need to play a big role for Chicago this year after missing the previous season due to overseas commitments.
The Big Three of Allie Quigley, Courtney Vandersloot and Candace Parker put up a +12.46 net rating in their time sharing the court, but all three are veterans who played heavy minutes in a lengthy playoff run last season so I’m interested to see how the Sky manage the minutes without those three on the court. Kahleah Copper, the MVP of the 2021 WNBA Finals, could miss time to start the regular season so the Sky will need Meesseman to be in top form early to prevent a slow start like the team’s 2-7 season-opening stretch from last year.
Connecticut Sun (+350): Can Courtney Williams seize control of the starting PG role?
The Sun boast one of the strongest frontcourts in the league, with Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner along with Jonquel Jones, the reigning MVP, and Brionna Jones, who won last season’s Most Improved Player award. The guard rotation is more questionable, and a lack of scoring from the guard position was part of why Connecticut struggled against Chicago in the playoffs despite finishing with the league’s best regular season record.
The Sun lost All-Defensive First Team guard Briann January this offseason but added Courtney Williams in free agency, and Williams should give the team a boost on offense. After spending three and a half seasons with Connecticut, Williams joined the Atlanta Dream in 2020 and set career-highs in points and assists last season en route to her first career All-Star game.
Connecticut was the least accurate team in the league on mid-range jump shots last season, so Williams could take the team’s offense to another level if she’s able to replicate her 2021 season. Williams became the first player in the PBP Stats database (since 2009) to make more than 100 long mid-range field goals in a single season, as her 119 makes surpassed Deanna Nolan’s 98 long mid-rangers from the 2009 season.
Another question for the Sun is how coach Curt Miller will manage the frontcourt minutes. Jonquel Jones and Alyssa Thomas only shared the court for 22 minutes last season after Thomas returned from injury so I’m interested to see how the forward rotation looks for Connecticut this year.
Phoenix Mercury (+400): When will Brittney Griner come home?
The biggest question looming over this season is the status of Brittney Griner, one of the league’s most prominent stars. Griner is currently imprisoned in Russia and the team, as well as the league as a whole, will miss her presence and hope for her safety until she returns.
While it is difficult to think about the on-court ramifications of her absence, Phoenix is clearly a worse team without the future Hall of Famer on the floor as the 2021 WNBA Finals runner-up outscored opponents by 5.13 points per 100 possessions with Griner compared to a -1.51 net rating when Griner was off the court. Even after adding the league’s leading scorer from last season in Tina Charles, there is no way to replace what Griner brings to the team, both on and off the court.
Seattle Storm (+500): Will Ezi Magbegor start at center?
Ezi Magbegor made just three starts last season and averaged under 15 minutes per game in her first two seasons with the Storm but was the starting five for Seattle’s first preseason game this year. Mercedes Russell, who started at center last season and re-signed with Seattle this offseason, missed the game due to injury and her absence could extend into the regular season.
While Jantel Lavender and rookie second-round pick Elissa Cunane could also challenge for minutes at center, Magbegor can provide strong rim protection on defense while stretching the floor for the Storm on offense. Among players with at least ten games played and an average of at least one three-point attempt per 100 possessions, Magbegor ranked first in three-point percentage. The Australia native also ranked in the top-five for blocks per 100 possessions and top-10 for offensive rebounds per 100 possessions last season. If Magbegor sees increased minutes and takes a leap in her third season, she could be a steal in fantasy while giving a boost to Seattle’s title chances.
Minnesota Lynx (+800): Who will step up to replace Napheesa Collier?
Napheesa Collier is expected to miss the majority of the season due to her pregnancy, which is exciting news for Collier but could be a big blow to Minnesota’s status as contenders in the likely final season of a Hall of Fame career for Sylvia Fowles. Collier led the team in scoring last year and Minnesota was outscored by 2.83 points per 100 possessions without Collier last season compared to a +7.48 net rating in her 1003 minutes on the court.
With both Damiris Dantas and Layshia Clarendon injured and Kayla McBride expected to be overseas to start the year, the Lynx could enter the season without three key contributors from last year’s squad. Minnesota is banking on internal improvement from young players such as last season’s first-round pick Rennia Davis and 2020 Rookie of the Year Crystal Dangerfield, but a potential X-factor might be veteran Angel McCoughtry. The league’s all-time leader in usage rate is now 35 years old and only played in 24 games since the start of 2019 but made the All-Star team while putting up 16.5 points per game in 2018, so McCoughtry could vault Minnesota back into title contention if she’s anywhere close to that level of play.
