Chasing Bristol (Fall)

The ticking sound in a driver’s head is either the clock getting louder as the regular season winds down toward the playoffs—or it is the sound of a bomb getting ever closer to exploding. It really matters where one is in the standings.

Bristol Motor Speedway, Michigan International Speedway, Darlington Raceway, and Richmond International Raceway remain on the schedule and these four tracks each favor a different style of racing. Usually by this time in the season, teams know that at least one driver will make the Chase on points. With four races remaining and 12 unique winners so far in 2016, there is still the opportunity for the 2016 field to be made up entirely of winning drivers and that fact is not inconsequential to fantasy owners.

Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, Ryan Newman, and Jamie McMurray each have to race with at least one eye on the rearview mirror to keep the others at bay. Currently only 12 points separates Newman in 11th from McMurray in 14th and once Chris Buescher gains three more points on 30th in the standings, that is going to be the bubble. The problem is that at least one more unique winner is possible—perhaps even likely—and positions 11th through 14th might swap around several times in the next four weeks.

Regular Season Races Remaining: 4 (Maximum points per race = 45, 180 total)

Unique Winners in 2016: 12

Locked In

Kyle Busch (4 wins / 670 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 2
Points’ Standings: 4
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 24.40
Michigan: 34.17
Darlington: 6.33

Busch tends to be an all or nothing racer. If he is not challenging for top-fives, often it is because he has run into trouble during a race, so his current streak is out of the ordinary. Since the June Toyota / Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway through the Cheez-it 355 at the Glen he has recorded a worse finish of 12th, but only two of those are top-fives.

Brad Keselowski (4 wins / 727 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 4
Points’ Standings: 1
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 17.50
Michigan: 7.00
Darlington: 17.00

Keselowski had an eight-race streak of oval track top-10s to his credit before finishing 15th at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He finished 17th the next week at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and fantasy owners might have begun to wonder about how that would affect his momentum. Now he has back-to-back top-fives at Pocono Raceway and Watkins Glen International, so the questions continue.

Matt Kenseth (2 wins / 600 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 6
Points’ Standings: 9
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 16.00
Michigan: 14.33
Darlington: 8.67

A recent three-year average of 16th at Bristol Motor Speedway does not reflect Kenseth’s strength on that course. He is capable of winning this week to add three more bonus points to his Chase total and insure that at least one driver will make the playoffs on points. Kenseth is a quiet driver, but he is great on tough tracks like this week’s venue and Darlington Raceway, so he earns his way on most rosters for the next three or four weeks.

Carl Edwards (2 wins / 653 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 7
Points’ Standings: 5
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 13.17
Michigan: 13.33
Darlington: 7.00

Watkins Glen was another missed opportunity for the No. 19 team. Each time this happens, it erodes a little confidence and Edwards’ string of solid runs at the beginning of the season has less impact on his handicap. NASCAR is prone to streaks, however, and all of the Joe Gibbs Racers are capable of winning the championship. All of them currently have multiple wins.

Jimmie Johnson (2 wins / 578 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 8
Points’ Standings: 10
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 14.67
Michigan: 20.67
Darlington: 8.67

When bad things start happening to drivers, it seems to take forever for them to get back in winning form. Last week’s accident at Watkins Glen was not Johnson’s fault, but it was the seventh time in the last 15 weeks that he finished in the back half of the field. Since the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway early this spring, his average result has been a disappointing 19.7.

Denny Hamlin (2 win / 620 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 9
Points’ Standings: 7
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 20.50
Michigan: 17.50
Darlington: 8.00

Drivers want to win on every track type NASCAR offers. Hamlin came within a few hundred yards of winning a road course race in Sonoma this June and finally accomplished the feat at the Glen. Now the focus shifts to wanting to win on every track. Hamlin does not have to worry about that at the moment because he has wins on all four of the upcoming courses during the regular season.

Currently Eligible on Wins

Kevin Harvick (1 win / 718 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 1
Points’ Standings: 2
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 21.83
Michigan: 7.00
Darlington: 3.67

Harvick was not going to get a top-10 last week at the Glen before he was run over from behind as he slowed in Trevor Bayne’s dirt, but his result did not have to be as bad as it was. That was only the second time this season Harvick finished outside the top 20. Both of those disappointments came on wild card tracks and both were because of accidents. Harvick also crashed out of the Coke Zero 400.

Martin Truex Jr. (1 win / 612 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 3
Points’ Standings: 8
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 27.00
Michigan: 17.83
Darlington: 16.00

One must wonder just how upset Truex really is with Keselowski following the last-corner incident at the Glen. Neither was going to win and in the big scheme of things, finishing seventh instead of second did not really matter much—except for the fact that Truex has struggled through so many disappointments in 2016. The next four weeks will determine if he is able to enter the Chase with any momentum.

Joey Logano (1 win / 652 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 5
Points’ Standings: 6
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 27.00
Michigan: 4.33
Darlington: 20.33

Logano is in a similar situation to Harvick. Two of his worst results have come in the past 10 races, but a pair of high-30-something finishes is offset by eight top-10s—six of which are top-fives. The next four races will be a way for the team to test their communication. They want to enter the Chase with a string of top-10s and last week’s second at the Glen is a step in the right direction.

Kurt Busch (1 win / 689 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 10
Points’ Standings: 3
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 17.17
Michigan: 13.00
Darlington: 17.00

Busch narrowly missed the top 10 last week at the Glen. He finished 11th on a wild card track and it is difficult to draw any conclusions from that result. Still, he has only three top-15s in his last six attempts and one keeps looking back to his last-corner spin at Daytona as the race in which he lost his momentum.

Tony Stewart (1 win / 389 points)
Power Ranking: 16
Points’ Standings: 26
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 9.67
Michigan: 16.75
Darlington: 13.00

Stewart never seriously challenged for the victory at the Glen and his fifth-place finish came as a bit of a surprise. Still, it was the fifth time in his last seven attempts that he finished in the top five, which gives this team as much momentum entering the final four regular season races as anyone in the field. If his long career is an indication, he will continue to run strong well into the fall.

Currently Eligible on Points

Chase Elliott (0 wins / 561 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 11
Points’ Standings: 12
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 4.00
Michigan: 2.00
Darlington: 41.00

Elliott temporarily stopped the bleeding last week at the Glen. He scored a top-15 and advanced one position in the standings after Dillon was involved in an incident early in the race. He has only a two point gap over Dillon and is 11 up to McMurray, which can easily be wiped out with a single brush of the Bristol wall.

Austin Dillon (0 wins / 559 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 13
Points’ Standings: 13
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 17.60
Michigan: 16.33
Darlington: 16.50

If there is a single new unique winner other than Newman, Elliott, Dillon, or McMurray in the next four weeks, these four drivers face a test that will define their year. The distraction is going to be so great, in fact, that it virtually assures they will not make it to the third round of the playoffs and at least two will not advance from the Challenger round. Winning at Bristol would be one great way to take one’s name out of that conversation.

Kyle Larson (0 wins / 520 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 14
Points’ Standings: 15
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 21.00
Michigan: 16.80
Darlington: 9.00

Larson would give almost anything to re-run the final corner at the Glen. He edged to the right to give a little extra room to the fishtailing No. 78 and got clipped by AJ Allmendinger. If the contact would have occurred a little further down the track, he might have hit pit wall in a place that allowed him to limp across the finish line, but instead he lost 25 points and a reasonable shot at making the Chase. Now, he needs to hope something bad happens to another driver if he cannot find his elusive first victory.

Ryan Newman (0 wins / 562 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 18
Points’ Standings: 11
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 12.33
Michigan: 12.67
Darlington: 11.00

Newman has earned points when needed, but he has not been one of the strongest drivers in the field. With a Fantasy Power Ranking of 18th, Ryan Blaney or Kasey Kahne might be more deserving of his Chase berth, but NASCAR does not award points on our strength-based formula or opinion.

Jamie McMurray (0 wins / 550 points)
Cannot fall out of the top 30
Power Ranking: 19
Points’ Standings: 14
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 17.17
Michigan: 13.33
Darlington: 15.33

McMurray is gaining momentum at the right time. The majority of his top-10s have come in recent weeks, but he cannot afford to slow with teammate Larson only 30 points behind. That is only seven or eight positions per race and with three-year averages in the teens on the next three courses, McMurray has to be a little nervous. If he gets past Darlington, Richmond has been one of his better tracks in recent years.

Outside the Top 30 with a Win

Chris Buescher (1 win / 292 points)
Power Ranking: 35
Points’ Standings: 31
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Bristol: 23.00
Michigan: 20.00
Darlington: NA

NASCAR is a cruel sport sometimes. Buescher probably had a brief moment of relief when he saw David Ragan had been caught up in a late-race accident, only to get clipped a millisecond later and lose almost as many positions. With full support from Roush-Fenway Racing, he should be able to make up the three-point deficit to 30th in the standings, but Darlington is going to be a great unknown and he will not breathe freely until it is in the books.

Power Ranking	Points Standings	Driver	Wins	Power Avg.	|	Bristol	Michigan	Darlington
Locked In
2	4	Kyle Busch	4	7.48	|	24.40	34.17	6.33
4	1	Brad Keselowski	4	9.09	|	17.50	7.00	17.00
6	9	Matt Kenseth	2	9.90	|	16.00	14.33	8.67
7	5	Carl Edwards	2	9.95	|	13.17	13.33	7.00
8	10	Jimmie Johnson	2	11.19	|	14.67	20.67	8.67
9	7	Denny Hamlin	2	11.26	|	20.50	17.50	8.00
Eligible on Wins
1	2	Kevin Harvick	1	6.69	|	21.83	7.00	3.67
3	8	Martin Truex Jr.	1	9.01	|	27.00	17.83	16.00
5	6	Joey Logano	1	9.38	|	12.83	4.33	20.33
10	3	Kurt Busch	1	11.46	|	17.17	13.00	17.00
16	26	Tony Stewart	1	17.98	|	9.67	16.75	13.00
Eligible on Points
11	12	Chase Elliott		14.04	|	4.00	2.00	41.00
13	13	Austin Dillon		16.99	|	17.60	16.33	16.50
14	15	Kyle Larson		17.05	|	21.00	16.80	9.00
18	11	Ryan Newman		19.84	|	12.33	12.67	11.00
19	14	Jamie McMurray		19.93	|	17.17	13.33	15.33
Drivers with win, not in top 30
35	31	Chris Buescher	1	31.14	|	23.00	20.00	NA
Drivers Outside Chase Contention
12		Dale Earnhardt Jr.		14.23	|	16.67	16.50	6.33
15		Ryan Blaney		17.06	|	16.50	21.67	30.00
17		Kasey Kahne		19.00	|	19.17	11.83	22.00
20		Ricky Stenhouse Jr.		21.43	|	11.17	23.50	25.33
21		AJ Allmendinger		21.58	|	23.60	24.80	19.00
22	16	Trevor Bayne		21.98	|	16.00	21.17	35.00
23		Paul Menard		22.01	|	14.33	8.33	28.67
24		Greg Biffle		22.64	|	16.33	19.50	12.00
25		Ty Dillon		22.78	|	25.00	19.00	NA
26		Jeff Gordon		23.64	|	10.60	12.40	8.67
27		Aric Almirola		24.58	|	20.50	21.83	18.33
28		Danica Patrick		26.13	|	22.33	20.00	30.67
29		Casey Mears		27.79	|	28.17	25.50	28.00
30		Landon Cassill		28.91	|	29.67	31.33	25.00
31		Clint Bowyer		29.05	|	11.83	15.83	13.33
32		David Ragan		30.10	|	31.00	26.83	37.00
33		Michael McDowell		30.25	|	29.67	NA	42.00
34		Regan Smith		30.47	|	37.00	35.00	24.00
36		Brian Scott		31.82	|	30.00	36.00	NA
37		Matt DiBenedetto		33.02	|	20.00	34.33	25.00
38		Cole Whitt		33.98	|	30.80	27.80	40.50
39		Michael Annett		35.22	|	32.20	30.80	40.50
40		Jeb Burton		35.57	|	43.50	35.00	31.00
41		Alex Kennedy		37.50	|	33.00	34.00	NA
42		Josh Wise		37.65	|	32.67	33.50	34.33
43		Jeffrey Earnhardt		37.77	|	32.00	37.00	NA
44		Reed Sorenson		38.50	|	34.50	33.50	39.00

A note about the three-year stats: The three-year average finish is a script that looks at the last 1,116 days—to provide for minor changes in the schedule. Since some races shift dates more than a week or two, the past three-years sometimes occasionally contain five races instead of six. It is a consistent snapshot, however.

A note about the Power Average: The Fantasy Power Rankings formula includes finishing results this season as well as various “strength-based” intangibles such as Laps in the top five, 10, and 15, average running position, speed in traffic, and quality passes (passing a car while in the top 15) expressed as if they were finishing results. The lower the number, the stronger the driver.